全世界愛上空調(diào)，人類的未來卻因此陷入危機(jī)

More than crickets and fireflies, more than baseball and cookouts, perhaps nothing signals the arrival of summer in the United States like the soft familiar whir of air-conditioning.

不只是蟋蟀和螢火蟲，不只是棒球和露天燒烤，在美國(guó)，或許沒有什么能比空調(diào)溫柔而熟悉的聲響更能標(biāo)志著夏天的到來。

But there is growing concern that as other countries adopt America’s love of air-conditioners, the electricity used to power them will overburden electrical grids and increase planet-warming emissions.

但隨著其他國(guó)家和美國(guó)一樣愛上空調(diào)，人們愈發(fā)擔(dān)心空調(diào)的供電會(huì)使電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷超載，并增加導(dǎo)致全球變暖的排放。

The number of air-conditioners worldwide is predicted to soar from 1.6 billion units today to 5.6 billion units by midcentury, according to a report issued Tuesday by the International Energy Agency. If left unchecked, by 2050 air-conditioners would use as much electricity as China does for all activities today.

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署(International Energy Agency)周二發(fā)布的報(bào)告，到本世紀(jì)中期，全球的空調(diào)數(shù)量預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)從今天的16億臺(tái)飆升至56億臺(tái)。如果不加管束，2050年的空調(diào)耗電量將相當(dāng)于中國(guó)今天所有活動(dòng)的用電量。

Greenhouse gas emissions released by coal and natural gas plants when generating electricity to power those air-conditioners would nearly double, from 1.25 billion tons in 2016 to 2.28 billion tons in 2050, the report says. Those emissions would contribute to global warming, which could further heighten the demand for air-conditioning.

報(bào)告稱，到2050年，給空調(diào)機(jī)供電的燃煤和天然氣發(fā)電廠排放的溫室氣體將接近翻倍，從2016年的12.5億噸增長(zhǎng)至22.8億噸。這些排放將導(dǎo)致全球變暖，可能進(jìn)一步加劇人們對(duì)空調(diào)的需求。

Right now air-conditioning is concentrated in a handful of countries, mainly in the United States and Japan, and increasingly in China.

目前，空調(diào)的使用集中在少數(shù)幾個(gè)國(guó)家，主要是美國(guó)和日本，中國(guó)也在逐漸增多。

While 90 percent of American households have air-conditioning, “When we look in fact at the hot countries in the world, in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, where about 2.8 billion people live, only about 8 percent of the population owns an air-conditioner,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the energy agency.

美國(guó)有90%的家庭擁有空調(diào)，但是，“當(dāng)我們實(shí)際去看看世界上較熱的國(guó)家，在大約有28億人居住的非洲、亞洲、拉丁美洲和中東地區(qū)，只有8%的人有空調(diào)，”國(guó)際能源署署長(zhǎng)法提赫·比羅爾(Fatih Birol)說。

As incomes in those countries rise, however, more people are installing air-conditioners in their homes. The energy agency predicts much of the growth in air-conditioning will occur in India, China and Indonesia.

然而，隨著這些國(guó)家收入提高，越來越多的人正在家里安裝空調(diào)。能源署預(yù)計(jì)，空調(diào)的增長(zhǎng)大部分會(huì)出現(xiàn)在印度、中國(guó)和印度尼西亞。

Some of the spread is simply being driven by a desire for comfort in parts of the world that have always been hot. But other factors are at play.

在世界上一些向來很熱的地區(qū)，空調(diào)的普及僅僅是因?yàn)槿藗兛释@得舒適。但也有其他因素的作用。

For example, as household wealth increases, so does the presence of household appliances like refrigerators and televisions, the report notes. These appliances generate heat, making homes warmer.

比如，報(bào)告指出，隨著家庭財(cái)富增長(zhǎng)，冰箱和電視等家用電器也越來越多。這些電器會(huì)產(chǎn)生熱量，使屋內(nèi)更熱。

And because air-conditioners work in part by venting hot air outside, they also make the surrounding neighborhood warmer. By some estimates air-conditioning can raise overnight temperatures by about two degrees Fahrenheit (one degree Celsius) in some cities, the report said. Practically speaking, if enough of your neighbors buy an air-conditioner it may increase the temperature in your home enough to drive you to do the same.

而且，由于空調(diào)的運(yùn)行部分是通過向室外排出熱氣，所以它們也會(huì)使周圍的環(huán)境更熱。報(bào)告稱，據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)，空調(diào)將使某些城市的夜間氣溫提高大約一攝氏度。實(shí)際上，如果你有足夠多的鄰居買了空調(diào)，那么你家的溫度可能也會(huì)升高，從而促使你也買空調(diào)。

And then, of course, there’s climate change. India is already one degree Fahrenheit warmer on average than it was a century ago. This has led to more “cooling degree days,” or days when average temperatures are warm enough to necessitate air-conditioning.

當(dāng)然了，還有氣候變化。印度的平均氣溫已比一個(gè)世紀(jì)以前高了一華氏度。這就導(dǎo)致“冷度日”更多，也就是平均溫度已經(jīng)熱到必須使用空調(diào)的日子。

“If you look at cooling degree days for Chennai or Mumbai, these are places that have twice as many cooling degree days as the hottest city in the U.S., Miami,” said Lucas Davis, director of the Energy Institute at the Haas School of Business of the University of California, Berkeley. “It’s unbelievably hot — there’s nothing in the U.S. that compares in terms of heat to these cities in India.”

“如果你看看欽奈或孟買，這些地方的冷度日是美國(guó)最熱城市邁阿密的兩倍之多，”加州大學(xué)伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)哈斯商學(xué)院能源研究院院長(zhǎng)盧卡斯·戴維斯(Lucas Davis)說。“熱得難以置信——美國(guó)沒有哪里能比印度的這些城市更熱。”

And when it gets hot, forgoing air-conditioning can be deadly. The heat wave that plagued Chicago in 1995 killed more than 700 people, while the 2003 European heat wave and 2010 Russian heat wave killed tens of thousands each. Researchers have found that climate change made the European heat wave deadlier and the Russian heat wave more likely.

天氣變熱時(shí)，不使用空調(diào)可能是致命的。1995年席卷芝加哥的熱浪造成700多人死亡，2003年的歐洲熱浪和2010年的俄羅斯熱浪分別奪走了數(shù)萬人的生命。研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，氣候變化導(dǎo)致歐洲的熱浪更致命，俄羅斯則更可能發(fā)生熱浪。

The introduction of home air-conditioning in the United States has cut premature deaths on hot days by 75 percent since 1960, another study has shown. That is why both Dr. Davis and Dr. Birol say the solution lies not in convincing countries to forgo air-conditioners, but in making air-conditioning more energy efficient. That could cut by half the additional energy demand for cooling in the coming years.

另一項(xiàng)研究顯示，自1960年以來，家用空調(diào)的引入已將熱天過早死亡的案例減少了75%。因此戴維斯博士和比羅爾博士認(rèn)為，解決辦法不是說服各國(guó)不再使用空調(diào)，而是讓空調(diào)更節(jié)能。這可能會(huì)將未來幾年的新增制冷能源需求量減少一半。

Many air-conditioners on sale in India today use twice as much electricity to provide the same amount of cooling as more efficient units, Dr. Davis said.

戴維斯博士稱，如今印度市面上的許多空調(diào)提供相同制冷效果所需的電量比高效空調(diào)多出兩倍。

On the other end of the spectrum, air-conditioners sold in Japan and the European Union tend to be 25 percent more efficient than units sold in the United States and China.

而在做得較好的地方，比如日本和歐盟，市面上的空調(diào)效率往往比美國(guó)和中國(guó)市面上的空調(diào)高出25%。

Governments should set efficiency standards for air-conditioners and provide incentives for manufacturers and consumers, Dr. Birol said. Some countries are already passing energy efficiency standards. And as part of an agreement known as the Kigali amendment to the Montreal Protocol, other countries are working to phase out refrigerants used in air-conditioning units that are also potent greenhouse gases.

比羅爾博士表示，政府應(yīng)該制定空調(diào)的能效標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，為制造商和消費(fèi)者設(shè)定激勵(lì)措施。有些國(guó)家已經(jīng)通過了能效標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。作為《蒙特利爾議定書》(Montreal Protocol)基加利修正案的一部分，其他國(guó)家正在逐步淘汰在空調(diào)機(jī)組中使用制冷劑。制冷劑也是一種強(qiáng)效溫室氣體。

Dr. Davis said electricity prices must also play a role in developing countries. “It is hard to make more progress on any of those fronts without more rational pricing for electricity,” he said. Accounting for emissions in the cost of electricity and removing subsidies would encourage more efficient air-conditioning and more sustainable buildings, he said.

戴維斯博士表示，電力價(jià)格也應(yīng)該在發(fā)展中國(guó)家發(fā)揮作用。“如果沒有更合理的電價(jià)，就很難在這些領(lǐng)域取得更大進(jìn)展，”他說。他表示，讓人們通過支付電費(fèi)的方式為排放負(fù)責(zé)，再加上取消補(bǔ)貼，將會(huì)鼓勵(lì)人們使用更高效的空調(diào)，修建更有利于可持續(xù)發(fā)展的建筑。

The report also envisions a role for renewable energies — especially solar power, which to some degree aligns the peak of its energy generation, in the middle of the day, with the peak demand for cooling.

該報(bào)告還展望了可再生能源在未來的角色，尤其是太陽能。從某種程度上講，在正午時(shí)分制冷需求最旺盛的時(shí)刻，太陽能的發(fā)電量也是最高的。

No matter what, air-conditioning will be a major issue in the fight against climate change, Dr. Birol said.

比羅爾博士表示，不管怎樣，空調(diào)將是對(duì)抗氣候變化的一個(gè)主要問題。

“When I look at the next few years to come, air-conditioners are only second to the entire industrial sector,” he said. “Twenty-one percent of the total world electricity growth is coming from the need to meet the growth of air-conditioner electricity demand.”

“展望未來幾年，我發(fā)現(xiàn)，空調(diào)是僅次于整個(gè)工業(yè)領(lǐng)域的第二大因素，”他說，“全球電力增長(zhǎng)的21%是用來滿足空調(diào)用電需求的增長(zhǎng)。”