Investment in the latter part of 2002 and at the start of 2003 has been driven by geopolitical concerns1 but the underlying background is more complex, and reflects currency concerns, along with the desire to hedge against risks in the equity and bond markets and, notably in the case of2 Argentina and Japan, risks in the banking sector. Corporate governance problems also played a strong part during the first part of 2002 , as a deepening mistrust of corporate reports and accounts augmented some investors’desire to hedge against equity exposure . Gold thus reasserted itself as an alternative asset class, enabling the professional investor to diversify his risk. With concerns also swirling in the markets about the destiny of the dollar, the euro and the yen, gold and the Swiss franc came into play as reserve currencies.
As a consequence, the professional investor is once again looking at gold as a hedge against risk — something that many individuals in developing nations have never ceased to do. These individual investors in the Middle East, Indian sub-continent and the Far East have remained loyal to gold as a safe haven, or an“ ultimate investment”as a portable、 anonymous form of money and it is this sustained activity which has formed the foundation of the change in sentiment in the rest of the world. The“retail”investor in the so-called first world is also aware of gold ’s resurgence and there has been a noticeable rekindling of interest in coins and bars from this quarter as well interest in gold in other forms from other investment pools.
Offsetting this fresh demand to some extent is the fact that the slowing global economy had a negative effect on purchases of gold in the jewellery sector, and the poor Indian monsoon3 meant that Indian offtake, the world ’s largest, was particularly badly hampered. This is one of the answers to the question“why didn’t the price rise further, given all the other uncertainties in the world?”One of the important features of gold is that more often than not, a reason for one man to buy it is the same reason for another man to sell it. It is this that helps to make it an attractive alternative asset class as it has characteristics all of its own and a negative, if any, correlation with many of the other major asset classes. In this case the slowing economy hindered jewellery purchases, but prompted purchases from investors concerned that stock market valuations were too high given the deteriorating outlook for earnings.
It is worth pointing out also that if the price had rocketed, the integrity of the demand side would have been severely undermined and such a rally would have proved unsustainable.
練習題：
?、? Translate the following expressions into English according to the passage :
1. 關于地緣政治的考慮
2. 股票債券市場
3. 對??有負面作用
4. 不確定因素
5. 和??成反比
6. 匿名的
Ⅱ. Questions :
1. Which country buy the most gold to make jewelry?
2. What are“reserved currencies”?
答案：
?、? 1. geo-political concerns
2. the equity and bond markets
3. have a negative effect on
4. uncertainties
5. a negative , if any, correlation with
6. anonymous
Ⅱ. 1. India.
2. Gold and the Swiss franc .
解析：
黃金是最堅挺的主要貨幣
2002 年后期和2003 年初, 緊張的地緣政治局勢充分激活黃金投資。不過, 它潛在的背景環(huán)境也更加復雜, 它反映了對貨幣的擔憂, 以及試圖通過黃金對沖來規(guī)避證券和債券市場及銀行部門風險的渴望。日本和阿根廷就屬后一種情況。在2002 年初, 公司的管理問題也在黃金價格的上升過程中充當非常重要的角色, 大公司財務報表的可信度降低, 加劇了投資者規(guī)避股市風險的切望。黃金被重新提上投資工具行列, 成為專業(yè)投資者分化風險投資組合的工具之一。由于美元、歐元和日元在市場上命途多舛, 黃金、瑞士法郎就成為儲備通貨的選擇。
形勢發(fā)展的結(jié)果是, 專業(yè)投資者再一次把黃金當作規(guī)避風險的屏障——— 而這種觀念在一些發(fā)展中國家的個人投資中從來就沒有停止過。比如中東、印度次大陸和遠東地區(qū), 個人投資者們?nèi)院苤艺\地把黃金當作避風港, 或者當作便于攜帶又匿名的“ 錢”——— 一種“ 終極投資”。而且正是這種持續(xù)不斷的行為為世界其他地區(qū)觀念的變化奠定了基礎。所謂第 一 世界的“ 零售”投資者也意識到黃金市場的復蘇, 從本季度開始, 投資者不但對來自其他投資基金的黃金投資形式興趣明顯增強, 而且對金幣和金條的興趣也重新燃起。
另一方面, 全球緩慢發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟在推動金價上升的同時, 在某種程度上又抑制了珠寶業(yè)的黃金購買能力。特別是印度( 世界最大的珠寶黃金需求國) 因為反常的季風氣候而減少了珠寶黃金需求。這也是近期盡管世界有其他諸多不穩(wěn)定因素, 黃金價格并沒有進一步上升的原因。目前, 黃金的一個重要的特征是, 一方買入的原因常常就是另一方賣出的原因。正是如此, 黃金才成為一種吸引人的資產(chǎn)品種, 因為黃金除了有其自身所有的特性外,還與許多其他資產(chǎn)品種成負相關的關系。因此, 世界經(jīng)濟變緩抑制了黃金珠寶的購買力,但卻促使那些擔心證券市場的市值被過分高估而預期收入減少的投資者來購買黃金。
值得重視的一點是, 如果黃金價格飛升, 黃金的總體需求將受到嚴重損傷, 因為飆升的金價最終將被證明是不穩(wěn)定的。
