GRE寫(xiě)作官方題庫(kù)高頻ARGUMENT題目滿分范文分享：construction of new electric plants

　　The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company:

　　"Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary."

　　Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

　　【滿分范文賞析】

　　The author of this memo concludes that there is no need for an additional electric power plant in the area because total electricity demand in the area is not likely to increase in the future. To support this conclusion the author cites the availability of new energy-efficient appliances and systems for homes, and the eagerness of area homeowners to conserve energy. However, the argument relies on several questionable assumptions.

　　【本段結(jié)構(gòu)】

　　本文采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument開(kāi)頭段結(jié)構(gòu)，即C—A—F的開(kāi)頭結(jié)構(gòu)。本段首先概括原文的Conclusion，之后簡(jiǎn)要提及原文為支持其結(jié)論所引用的一系列Assumption及細(xì)節(jié)，最后給出開(kāi)頭段到正文段的過(guò)渡句，指出原文的Flaw，即這些Assumption無(wú)法讓原文邏輯上沒(méi)有問(wèn)題。

　　【本段功能】

　　作為Argument開(kāi)頭段，本段具體功能就在于發(fā)起攻擊并概括原文的結(jié)論，即因?yàn)楣╇娏繒?huì)下降，沒(méi)有必要新建額外的發(fā)電廠。本段接下來(lái)提到了原文中為支持之前的Conclusion所提供的證據(jù)，包括新型的節(jié)能家電用具以及當(dāng)?shù)厝藗兿胍?jié)約能源的愿望。文章提及這些信息，為是在正文段中對(duì)這些Assumption即將進(jìn)行的具體攻擊做鋪墊。

　　First, the author's projection for flat or declining total demand for electricity ignores business and commercial electricity usage. It is entirely possible that area businesses will increase their use of electricity in the future and that total electricity consumption will actually increase despite flat or declining residential demand. The author's projection also ignores the possibility that the number of area residents will increase in the future, thereby resulting in an increase in electricity usage regardless of whether more efficient appliances are used in area homes. Without taking these possibilities into account the recommendation above is incomplete.

　　【本段結(jié)構(gòu)】

　　本段采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument正文段結(jié)構(gòu)，即先是提及原文的第一個(gè)邏輯錯(cuò)誤，之后分析該邏輯錯(cuò)誤的原因，接下來(lái)，進(jìn)一步分析這樣的錯(cuò)誤為什么讓原文的Conclusion不成立。

　　【本段功能】

　　作為正文第一段，本段攻擊原文所犯的第一個(gè)重要邏輯錯(cuò)誤——因果類錯(cuò)誤。原文當(dāng)中假設(shè)當(dāng)?shù)鼐用裼秒娏康南陆禃?huì)導(dǎo)致整體上的用電需求量下降，但是這一假設(shè)忽視了和用電量相關(guān)的其它作用因素，比如商業(yè)用電量和當(dāng)?shù)鼐用袢丝?。因此在沒(méi)有考慮這些因素的情況下，原文當(dāng)中的這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)是不合理的。

　　Secondly, the author's conclusion relies on the assumption that area residents have the capability and will purchase the energy-saving appliances and systems that are currently available. Admittedly, the author points out homeowners are "eager to conserve energy." Nevertheless, these homeowners might not be able to afford these new systems and appliances. Moreover, the energy-efficient insulation that the author mentions might only be available for new home construction. In that case, the mere availability of this system will have no effect on total electric usage in existing homes.

　　【本段結(jié)構(gòu)】

　　本段采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument正文段結(jié)構(gòu)，即先是提及原文的第二個(gè)邏輯錯(cuò)誤，之后分析該邏輯錯(cuò)誤的原因，接下來(lái)，進(jìn)一步分析這樣的錯(cuò)誤為什么讓原文的Conclusion不成立。

　　【本段功能】

　　作為正文第二段，本段攻擊原文所犯的第二個(gè)重要邏輯錯(cuò)誤——因果類錯(cuò)誤。原文假設(shè)因?yàn)樾滦图矣秒娖鞯拇嬖?，用電量?huì)下降。但是仍舊存在其他因素會(huì)對(duì)這一預(yù)期的結(jié)果產(chǎn)生影響。在沒(méi)有考慮到這些因素的情況下，原文的這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)是沒(méi)有說(shuō)服力的。

　　A final problem involves the assertion that no new electric power plants are needed because the three existing plants, which are 20 years old, have always been adequate for the area's electric needs. The author fails to account for the possibility that the old plants are themselves less energy efficient than a new plant using new technology would be, or that the old plants need to be replaced due to their age, or for some other reason. Besides, this assertion ignores the possible influx of residents or businesses in the future, thereby increasing the demand for electricity beyond what the three existing plants can meet.

　　【本段結(jié)構(gòu)】

　　本段采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument正文段結(jié)構(gòu)，即先是提及原文的第三個(gè)邏輯錯(cuò)誤，之后分析該邏輯錯(cuò)誤的原因，接下來(lái)，進(jìn)一步分析這樣的錯(cuò)誤為什么讓原文的Conclusion不成立。

　　【本段功能】

　　作為正文第三段，本段攻擊原文所犯的第三個(gè)重要邏輯錯(cuò)誤——因果類錯(cuò)誤。原文假設(shè)既然用電量會(huì)下降，那么發(fā)電廠設(shè)備就不需要更新?lián)Q代。但是，除此之外還包括其他相關(guān)因素會(huì)導(dǎo)致不同的結(jié)果，比如發(fā)電廠的工作效率問(wèn)題。在沒(méi)有考慮到這些因素的情況下，原文的這個(gè)假設(shè)不是合理的。