華爾街預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將于2023年出現(xiàn)衰退

The US economy added nearly half a million jobs in March. The Dow Jones industrial average is within 6% of its record high. And US households accumulated roughly $2.5 trillion in excess savings throughout the pandemic. 三月份美國(guó)增加了近50萬(wàn)就業(yè)崗位，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)漲幅創(chuàng)下6%的新高，美國(guó)家庭在疫情期間的儲(chǔ)蓄總額累計(jì)達(dá)近2.5萬(wàn)億美元（約合人民幣15.9萬(wàn)億元）。

Still, despite all the good news, predictions of an impending recession are widespread on Wall Street.
盡管這些都是好消息，但是華爾街卻普遍認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)即將陷入衰退。

For some, it’s a matter of historical comparison.
對(duì)某些人而言，這是歷史比較的結(jié)果。

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers emphasized in a recent Washington Post op-ed that current economic conditions are undeniably reminiscent of previous pre-recession periods in US history.
美國(guó)前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)勞倫斯•薩默斯在近期發(fā)表在《華盛頓郵報(bào)》上的一篇專欄文章中強(qiáng)調(diào)，當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況無(wú)疑讓人聯(lián)想起美國(guó)歷史上的幾次衰退前的情形。

"Over the past 75 years, every time inflation has exceeded 4% and unemployment has gone below 5%, the US economy has gone into a recession within two years,” Summers wrote.
薩默斯寫(xiě)道：“在過(guò)去75年間，每次通脹率超過(guò)4%，失業(yè)率降到5%以下，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)在兩年內(nèi)陷入衰退。”

Today, the US inflation rate is nearing 8%, and the unemployment rate fell to just 3.6% in March. As a result, Summers now sees an 80% chance of a US recession by next year.
如今，美國(guó)通脹率接近8%，失業(yè)率在三月份降至3.6%。因此，薩默斯認(rèn)為美國(guó)有80%的幾率將在明年陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。