科學(xué)家研發(fā)出社區(qū)老年人壽命預(yù)測工具

假如死亡能預(yù)測，你想知道自己的壽命還剩多久嗎？

在2015年上映的一部比利時(shí)奇幻喜劇電影中，上帝的女兒為了反抗父親的壓迫，將人類的死亡日期發(fā)到他們的手機(jī)上。

人們?cè)诘弥约荷氖Ｓ鄷r(shí)間后，有人喜悅，有人恐慌，有人憤怒，有人則表現(xiàn)得異常平靜。

雖然電影是虛構(gòu)的，現(xiàn)實(shí)中沒有人的命運(yùn)可以被劇透，但現(xiàn)在，科學(xué)家們宣布他們的確可以預(yù)測部分老年人的壽命。

據(jù)英國《鏡報(bào)》報(bào)道，科學(xué)家們?cè)凇都幽么筢t(yī)學(xué)協(xié)會(huì)雜志》（Canadian Medical Association Journal）發(fā)布了一項(xiàng)研究成果，稱他們已經(jīng)研發(fā)出基于大數(shù)據(jù)的生命預(yù)測系統(tǒng)，能夠預(yù)測6個(gè)月內(nèi)的死亡概率。

An online calculator that can help predict when older adults will die has been developed.

科學(xué)家們已經(jīng)研發(fā)出可以幫助預(yù)測老年人死亡時(shí)間的網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)算器。

這套算法被命名為“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估支持：社區(qū)老年人壽命預(yù)測工具（Risk Evaluationfor Support: Predictions for Elder-Life in the Community Tool ，簡稱RESPECT）”。

The data is based on more than 491,000 older adults who used home care between 2007 and 2013 and is focused on people who are likely to die within the next five years.

研究數(shù)據(jù)基于2007年至2013年間超過49.1萬名接受家庭護(hù)理的老年人，研究重點(diǎn)關(guān)注可能在未來五年內(nèi)死亡的人群。

The calculated life expectancycan be as low as four weeks for people who are very frailor loss of appetite.

他們還會(huì)被詢問決策能力如何，是否出現(xiàn)嘔吐、腫脹、呼吸急促、非計(jì)劃性體重減輕、脫水或食欲不振。

Researchers found declines in a person's ability to carry out activities of daily living were stronger predictors of six-month mortality than the diseases that a person has.

研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，一個(gè)人日常行為能力的下降比其所患疾病更能預(yù)示六個(gè)月內(nèi)的死亡概率。

Dr Amy Hsu, an investigatorat the Bruyere Research Institute and at the University of Ottawa in Canada, said: "The RESPECT calculator allows families and their loved ones to plan.

Bruyere研究院和加拿大渥太華大學(xué)研究員艾米·許博士稱：“‘生命計(jì)算器’可以讓家人和他們的摯愛有所準(zhǔn)備”。

"For example, it can help an adult child plan when to take a leave of absence from work to be with a parent or decide when to take the last family vacation together."

“例如，它可以幫助成年子女計(jì)劃什么時(shí)候休假陪伴父母，或者決定什么時(shí)候一起度過最后一個(gè)家庭假期。”

Dr Peter Tanuseputro, at the Ottawa Hospital, said: "Knowing how long a person has to live is essential in making informed decisions about what treatments they should get and where they should get them.

渥太華醫(yī)院醫(yī)生彼得·塔努塞普特羅說：“了解一個(gè)人還能活多長時(shí)間，對(duì)他們應(yīng)該接受哪些治療以及在哪里接受治療等問題做出合理判斷至關(guān)重要。

"As a person gets closer to death, the balance shifts from having curative care as the primary goal, to care that maximizes a person's quality of remaining life."

“隨著一個(gè)人離死亡越來越近，醫(yī)療護(hù)理從以治療為主要目的開始向最大限度提高病人剩余生命質(zhì)量傾斜。”