在這場流行病中股票市場發(fā)生了什么

在這場流行病中股票市場情況怎么樣

Even with millions of people out of work, the stock market has regained much of the ground it lost since March. Below, a trader walks across the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange on May 28.

盡管有數(shù)百萬人失業(yè)，股市還是收復了3月份以來的大部分失地。下圖是5月28日，一名交易員走過紐約證券交易所的交易大廳。

It's counterintuitive.

這是違反直覺的。

At a time of roiling civil unrest and an unprecedented economic crisis, stock prices are chugging along quite nicely. In fact, they have rebounded sharply since the dark days of March.

在國內(nèi)動蕩不安和前所未有的經(jīng)濟危機之際，股票價格一路順風。事實上，自3月份那段黑暗的日子以來，股市已經(jīng)大幅反彈。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which lost 37% of its value between Feb. 12 and March 23, has now regained more than two-thirds of the ground it lost. Same with the broader S&P 500 index.

道瓊斯工業(yè)股票平均價格指數(shù)在2月12日至3月23日期間下跌了37%，目前已收復了跌幅的三分之二以上。范圍更廣的標準普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)也是如此。

Or, as President Trump tweeted last week, "Stock Market up BIG. ... The Transition to Greatness has started, ahead of schedule."

或者，正如特朗普總統(tǒng)上周在推特上所說，“股市大漲...已經(jīng)提前開始了向偉大的轉(zhuǎn)變。”

It's a staggering turnaround since the early days of the coronavirus lockdowns, when the Dow was routinely falling by 1,000 points or more. On March 16, the most widely quoted stock index had its worst single-day point drop on record, falling 2,997 points, or 13%.

這是自冠狀病毒封鎖初期以來令人震驚的逆轉(zhuǎn)，當時道瓊斯指數(shù)通常會下跌1,000點或更多。3月16日，最廣泛上市的股指出現(xiàn)了有記錄以來最嚴重的單日點跌幅，下跌2,997點，跌幅13%。

What gives?

到底發(fā)生了什么事?

Some of the rebound has been driven by a few big tech companies such as Apple and Microsoft, which have returned to their pre-pandemic levels.

部分反彈是由蘋果和微軟等幾家大型科技公司推動的，它們已恢復到疫情前的水平。

"These companies ... have developed just an unbelievable sort of character that just does not exist among the broader stock market," says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.

Leuthold Group首席投資策略師吉姆•鮑爾森表示: “這些公司…已經(jīng)發(fā)展出一種令人難以置信的特質(zhì)，這種特質(zhì)在整體股市中是不存在的。”

"They've been able to grow even when the economy doesn't grow. And when the economy does grow, they grow faster. That is an incredible attribute," he says.

“即使經(jīng)濟不增長，他們也能增長。當經(jīng)濟增長時，他們增長得更快。這是一種難以置信的特質(zhì)。”他說。

A few other companies, such as Netflix and Amazon, have actually benefited from the pandemic. When people are locked inside, they stream a lot of movies and order a lot online.

其他一些公司，如Netflix和亞馬遜，實際上已經(jīng)從這場流行病中獲益。當人們被鎖在家里時，他們會看很多電影，在網(wǎng)上訂購很多東西。

Because tech giants make up a large part of major stock indexes like the S&P 500, their movements tend to have an outsize effect on the broader market.

由于科技股巨頭在標普500等主要股指中占很大比重，它們的走勢往往會對大盤產(chǎn)生巨大影響。

But even companies especially hard hit by the pandemic, such as Marriott and Carnival, have risen since March, although they're still down sharply for the year.

但即便是受到疫情嚴重打擊的公司，如萬豪和嘉年華，自3月份以來也出現(xiàn)了上漲，盡管今年以來仍大幅下跌。

What has happened is a clear shift in market sentiment, Paulsen says.

鮑爾森表示，市場情況發(fā)生了明顯轉(zhuǎn)變。

Current economic data may look ominous, with unemployment nearing 15%, consumer spending in a ditch and famous companies such as J.C. Penney and Hertz in bankruptcy. But investors are peering into the future and seeing an economy that is beginning to recover.

當前的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)看起來可能不太好，失業(yè)率接近15%，消費者支出陷入低谷，J.C. Penney和Hertz等知名公司破產(chǎn)。但投資者正在展望未來，看到經(jīng)濟開始復蘇。

"There are a lot of things that have changed to the more favorable side. We're starting to see the reopening of the economy." Paulsen says.

鮑爾森說:“很多事情都朝著有利的方面改變了。我們開始看到經(jīng)濟重新開放。”

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been pouring money into the economy to help small businesses and municipal governments. The Fed is even buying junk bonds.

與此同時，美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會和其他央行一直在向經(jīng)濟注入資金，幫助小企業(yè)和市政府。美聯(lián)儲甚至在購買垃圾債券。