為什么我們要故意讓我們的經濟繼續(xù)下滑

為什么我們要故意讓我們的經濟繼續(xù)下滑

The United States is heading into a very sharp downturn in the next three months. That much seems certain.

美國在未來三個月里將進入一個非常嚴重的衰退。這似乎是肯定的。

What is unique this time is that we as a country are willing it to happen.

這一次的獨特之處在于，我們作為一個國家愿意這樣做。

Collectively — intentionally — we are putting much of the economy on lockdown. The priorities are clear: save lives and keep hospitals and emergency rooms from being overwhelmed.

我們正在把大部分經濟集體地、有意地封鎖起來。當務之急很明確:拯救生命，避免醫(yī)院和急診室人滿為患。

California's governor was the first to order people in an entire U.S. state to stay home. Other states have followed. Throughout the country, restaurants and bars have closed. Air travel has come to a near standstill.

加州州長是全美國第一個命令的人們呆在家里的人。其他州也紛紛效仿。全國各地的餐館和酒吧都關門了。航空旅行幾乎停止了。

And most notably, Americans throughout the country have decided on their own to stay home — to protect themselves, their families and their neighbors.

最值得注意的是，美國各地的美國人決定自己呆在家里，以保護自己、家人和鄰居。

All of these steps are being taken to somehow arrest the spread of the coronavirus. But all of these steps also contribute to a sudden, violent contraction in the economy.

所有這些措施都在以某種方式阻止冠狀病毒的傳播。但所有這些措施也導致了經濟的突然劇烈收縮。

It's like a seesaw.

就像蹺蹺板。

The measures to protect public health are on one end. The normal activities that generate economic growth are on the other. And right now, we've put our weight firmly on the public health side of the seesaw. Saving lives is the priority.

保護公眾健康的措施是一方面。另一方面，促進經濟增長的正?；顒印，F在，我們把重心放在蹺蹺板的公共衛(wèi)生方面。拯救生命是當務之急。

Jeffrey Sachs, professor of sustainable development at Columbia University, says two immediate steps are critical:

哥倫比亞大學可持續(xù)發(fā)展教授杰弗里•薩克斯表示，眼下有兩個關鍵步驟:

Protecting highly vulnerable individuals — the elderly and people with underlying health conditions

保護極度脆弱的個人，指老年人和有潛在健康狀況的人

Breaking the transmission process

中斷傳播過程

"These are the highest priorities right now," Sachs says. "Everything else — economic ramifications and so forth — have to be secondary because the ferocity of this epidemic is extraordinary."

“這些是目前最優(yōu)先考慮的問題，”薩克斯說其他一切，例如經濟后果等，都必須是次要的，因為這種流行病的兇猛程度非同尋常。”

In the short term, at least, the economic pain will be crushing. Jobless claims are soaring. Millions may be newly unemployed by the end of the month. Small businesses stand on the brink of insolvency as cash on hand runs short.

至少在短期內，經濟的痛苦將是毀滅性的。申請失業(yè)救濟人數正在飆升。到本月底，可能有數百萬人失業(yè)。由于手頭現金短缺，小企業(yè)瀕臨破產。

Uncertainty has sent financial markets into a spiral of fear. Goldman Sachs is warning of a jaw-dropping 24% drop in economic activity in the second quarter.

不確定性使金融市場陷入恐慌的漩渦。高盛(警告稱，第二季度經濟活動將大幅下降24%。

JPMorgan Chase predicts a contraction of 14%. If these come true, it's the kind of tailspin that's far worse than any quarter during the Great Recession.

摩根大通預測，(經濟)將萎縮14%。如果這些都成為現實，那就是那種比大蕭條時期任何一個季度都糟糕得多的暴跌。

None of this is to say that the government and business leaders are simply letting the worst happen. Steps are being taken to avoid a catastrophic collapse. The Federal Reserve has moved aggressively to limit the damage, slashing interest rates to zero and pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system to keep money flowing. The Trump administration and Congress are negotiating a rescue plan of more than $1 trillion.

這并不是說政府和商業(yè)領袖們只是讓最壞的情況發(fā)生。正在采取措施避免災難性的崩潰。美聯(lián)儲已采取積極措施限制損失，將利率降至零，并向金融體系注入數千億美元以保持資金流動。特朗普政府和國會正在協(xié)商一項超過1萬億美元的救助計劃。

But these moves cannot just flip a switch and quickly restore the economy to where it was a month ago. They are lifelines, not booster shots — help businesses keep the lights on, help people who lose income and jobs pay the rent and feed the kids.

但這些舉措不可能一蹴而就，迅速將經濟恢復到一個月前的水平。它們是生命線，而不是強心針——幫助企業(yè)維持運轉，幫助那些失去收入和工作的人支付房租和養(yǎng)活孩子。

Emergency measures are critical. The economy has shifted to a wartime footing. Massive barrages of money and cheap credit will help, economists say. But the best remedy isn't financial: It's taming the coronavirus.

緊急措施至關重要。經濟已轉入戰(zhàn)時狀態(tài)。經濟學家們表示，大量資金和廉價信貸將有所幫助。但最好的治療方法不是經濟上的:而是馴服冠狀病毒。