中美貿(mào)易協(xié)議恐難改變?nèi)嗣駧艆R率現(xiàn)狀

BEIJING — A pending trade agreement between the United States and China could put few restrictions on Beijing’s control over the strength of its currency, potentially inflaming trade hawks in Congress and within the Trump administration itself.

北京——美國(guó)和中國(guó)之間懸而未決的貿(mào)易協(xié)定，可能不會(huì)對(duì)北京操控人民幣匯率方面施加多少限制，這可能會(huì)激怒國(guó)會(huì)和特朗普政府內(nèi)部的貿(mào)易鷹派。

China’s control over the value of its currency has long been a major point of conflict between Beijing and the West, though the issue has faded in prominence in recent years. Lawmakers and officials in other countries have contended that Beijing has unfairly weakened China’s currency, the renminbi, compared with the American dollar and other currencies, giving Chinese companies and factories an advantage when selling goods abroad.

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，中國(guó)操控人民幣匯率問(wèn)題一直是北京和西方之間的一個(gè)主要沖突點(diǎn)，不過(guò)近年來(lái)這個(gè)問(wèn)題已經(jīng)逐漸平息。其他國(guó)家的議員和官員都認(rèn)為，中國(guó)政府不公平地壓低了人民幣兌美元和其他貨幣的匯率，使中國(guó)企業(yè)和工廠在向海外銷(xiāo)售產(chǎn)品時(shí)占有優(yōu)勢(shì)。

China has long denied the accusation.

中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直否認(rèn)這個(gè)指控。

Yi Gang, the governor of China’s central bank, said at a news conference on Sunday morning in Beijing that during high-level trade talks last month in Washington, “the two sides reached consensus on many key and important issues” about currency markets.

中國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)易綱周日上午在北京舉行的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示，上個(gè)月在華盛頓舉行的高層貿(mào)易談判中，就匯率領(lǐng)域“雙方在許多關(guān)鍵和重要問(wèn)題上達(dá)成了共識(shí)”。

The consensus included an understanding that both countries would avoid devaluing their currencies to achieve a competitive advantage for their exports, Mr. Yi said. Both countries would also continue to comply with previous currency agreements among the Group of 20 economies, he said. Both countries would also maintain close communication about currency markets and would disclose detailed information in accordance with International Monetary Fund standards, he added.

易綱說(shuō)，雙方達(dá)成的共識(shí)包括，兩國(guó)不搞競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貶值。他表示，兩國(guó)還將繼續(xù)遵守歷次G20國(guó)峰會(huì)的承諾。他還說(shuō)，兩國(guó)將就外匯市場(chǎng)保持密切溝通，并將按照國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)披露數(shù)據(jù)。

American officials have taken varying stances on the currency provisions. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have expressed satisfaction with them. But Robert E. Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, cautioned Congress in testimony two weeks ago that nothing was fully resolved in the trade negotiations until everything had been settled.

美國(guó)官員在匯率條款方面的立場(chǎng)則不盡相同。特朗普總統(tǒng)和財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)史蒂文·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)對(duì)此表示滿意。但美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表羅伯特·E·萊特希澤(Robert E. Lighthizer)兩周前在作證時(shí)警告國(guó)會(huì)，在一切敲定之前，貿(mào)易談判中沒(méi)有任何問(wèn)題是得到徹底解決的。

Though the issue has ebbed as China’s currency has strengthened in recent years, the trade war has given it new relevance. The renminbi fell 10 percent against the American dollar between February and October last year, to the intense annoyance of trade hawks in the Trump administration.

盡管隨著人民幣匯率近年來(lái)走強(qiáng)，這個(gè)問(wèn)題已有所減弱，但貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)給它帶來(lái)了新的意義。去年2月至10月，人民幣兌美元匯率下跌了10%，這讓特朗普政府的貿(mào)易鷹派大為惱火。

In effect, that partly offset the 25 percent tariffs the Trump administration imposed over the summer on $50 billion a year in Chinese goods. It fully offset, at least temporarily, the 10 percent tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed last fall on an additional $200 billion a year in Chinese goods.

實(shí)際上，這在一定程度上抵消了特朗普政府夏天對(duì)每年500億美元的中國(guó)商品征收25%的關(guān)稅。它還至少暫時(shí)性抵消了特朗普去年秋天對(duì)每年另外2000億美元的中國(guó)商品征收的10%的關(guān)稅。

But the renminbi’s fall corresponded to a credit crunch in China and the precipitous slowing of the Chinese economy. Chinese officials contend that the renminbi’s fall reflected the strength of the dollar, not currency manipulation on their part. Miao Yanliang, the chief economist at the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China, noted in a recent statement that the euro fell against the dollar at about the same pace as the renminbi from February to October last year, while the British pound fell even faster.

但人民幣貶值與中國(guó)的信貸緊縮和經(jīng)濟(jì)急劇放緩相呼應(yīng)。中國(guó)官員認(rèn)為，人民幣貶值反映的是美元的走強(qiáng)，而不是他們?cè)诓倏v匯率。中國(guó)人民銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家繆延亮最近在一份聲明中指出，去年2月至10月，歐元兌美元匯率與人民幣匯率下跌的速度大致相同，而英鎊則下跌得更快。

Since the end of October, the renminbi has recovered nearly half its losses during last year’s slide. Foreign investors have poured money into China’s stock market and bond market. They hope to profit from China’s recent program of extra government spending and tax cuts, now being enacted to offset the economic slowdown.

自去年10月底以來(lái)，人民幣已收復(fù)了去年一半的跌幅。外國(guó)投資者紛紛涌入中國(guó)股市和債券市場(chǎng)。他們希望從中國(guó)最近的政府額外支出和減稅計(jì)劃中獲利，這些計(jì)劃目前正在實(shí)施，以抵消經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的影響。

The currency provisions of the evolving trade agreement are essentially a reaffirmation of the statement that the G-20 economies, including China, issued when the group’s finance ministers gathered in Shanghai in February 2016.

正在演變的貿(mào)易協(xié)定中的匯率條款，本質(zhì)上是重申包括中國(guó)在內(nèi)的20國(guó)集團(tuán)(G20)財(cái)長(zhǎng)2016年2月在上海開(kāi)會(huì)時(shí)發(fā)表的聲明。

In the Shanghai currency accord, all the group’s finance ministers agreed that they would not deliberately devalue their currencies with the purpose of achieving a competitive advantage for their exports. When a country’s currency falls in value, that makes the country’s exports less expensive and more competitive in foreign countries.

在上海發(fā)表的貨幣協(xié)定中，所有成員國(guó)的財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)都同意，他們不會(huì)為獲得出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)而故意讓本幣貶值——當(dāng)一個(gè)國(guó)家的貨幣貶值時(shí)，它的出口產(chǎn)品就會(huì)更便宜，在國(guó)外也更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

But the Shanghai currency accord, like the currency provisions in the Sino-American trade agreement now being negotiated, still allowed currencies to move up and down for lots of other reasons. These reasons include differences in interest rates and varying investment flows, as well as trade surpluses and deficits.

但同目前正在談判的美中貿(mào)易協(xié)定中有關(guān)匯率的條款一樣，上海的匯率協(xié)議依然允許匯率因其他許多原因上下波動(dòng)。這些原因包括利率差異和變化的投資流動(dòng)，以及貿(mào)易順差和逆差。

China has long contended that these variables determine what happens to the value of its currency, and that it does not deliberately undervalue its currency to help exporters.

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，中國(guó)一直堅(jiān)稱，人民幣匯率的走勢(shì)是由這些變量決定的，中國(guó)沒(méi)有故意讓人民幣貶值以幫助出口商。

The Shanghai currency accord did not require China to peg its currency at a specific value with respect to the dollar. Nor did it require China to maintain stability in the value of its currency with respect to a weighted average of the currencies of China’s trading partners.

上海的貨幣協(xié)定并未要求中國(guó)將人民幣匯率與美元掛鉤。它也沒(méi)有要求中國(guó)保持人民幣價(jià)值相對(duì)于中國(guó)貿(mào)易伙伴貨幣加權(quán)平均匯率的穩(wěn)定。

Beijing argues that it is fairer to measure the renminbi’s value against a so-called basket of currencies of its trading partners, and not just against the dollar.

北京辯稱，用所謂一攬子貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)貨幣來(lái)衡量人民幣價(jià)值更為公平，而不僅僅是用美元來(lái)衡量。

The Shanghai currency accord also required G-20 finance ministers to notify each other of major changes in currency policy, and to disclose data in compliance with I.M.F. standards.

上海的匯率協(xié)議還要求20國(guó)集團(tuán)的財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)相互通報(bào)貨幣政策的重大變化，并按照符合國(guó)際貨幣基金組織標(biāo)準(zhǔn)披露數(shù)據(jù)。

In August 2015, China unexpectedly devalued its currency with no warning and very little explanation. It then quietly let the currency slide further from December 2015 through early January 2016.

2015年8月，中國(guó)出人意料地讓人民幣貶值，沒(méi)有發(fā)出任何警告，也幾乎沒(méi)有做出任何解釋。然后，從2015年12月到2016年1月初，中國(guó)悄悄地讓人民幣進(jìn)一步貶值。

Japan had pushed hard for the Shanghai accord because of Japanese exporters’ alarm over the Chinese devaluation.

由于日本出口商對(duì)中國(guó)貨幣貶值的擔(dān)憂，日本一直在大力推動(dòng)上海的協(xié)定。

That devaluation helped China’s exporters a little, but it came at a very high cost to Beijing. Once the renminbi started sliding, it proved very hard to stop. The central bank ended up spending $1 trillion of its $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the currency.

人民幣貶值給中國(guó)出口商帶來(lái)了一點(diǎn)幫助，但對(duì)北京方面來(lái)說(shuō)，代價(jià)非常高昂。事實(shí)證明，一旦人民幣開(kāi)始貶值，就很難停止。中國(guó)央行最終動(dòng)用了4萬(wàn)億美元外匯儲(chǔ)備中的1萬(wàn)億來(lái)穩(wěn)定人民幣匯率。

Mr. Yi said on Sunday that the central bank now had a target of maintaining foreign exchange reserves of at least $3 trillion. The reserves have fluctuated at about that level for the past three years and totaled $3.09 trillion in February.

易綱于周日表示，中國(guó)央行目前的目標(biāo)是保持至少3萬(wàn)億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備。過(guò)去三年，外匯儲(chǔ)備一直在這一水平上下波動(dòng)，二月份外匯儲(chǔ)備總額為3.09萬(wàn)億美元。

That leaves very little room for the Chinese central bank to intervene again in currency markets without falling below the threshold set by Mr. Yi.

在不跌破易綱所設(shè)下限的情況下，中國(guó)央行再次干預(yù)外匯市場(chǎng)的空間非常小。

The accusation by American officials that China manipulates its currency is based on a period from early 2001 to the summer of 2014 when the Chinese central bank did sell renminbi and buy dollars on a massive scale to keep the renminbi weak and help exporters.

美國(guó)官員指控中國(guó)操縱人民幣匯率是基于2001年初至2014年夏季的一段時(shí)間，當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)央行確實(shí)大規(guī)模拋售人民幣、買(mǎi)入美元，以保持人民幣疲軟，幫助出口商。

China’s foreign reserves ballooned 24 fold in that period, rising to $4 trillion from $166 billion and dwarfing every other country’s reserves.

在此期間，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備膨脹了24倍，從1660億美元增至4萬(wàn)億美元，使其他國(guó)家的外匯儲(chǔ)備相形見(jiàn)絀。

But since then, Chinese officials have struggled to prevent the renminbi from falling. As the Chinese economy has slowed, many Chinese companies and families have looked for ways to send money out of the country, potentially destabilizing not just the renminbi, but also the Chinese financial system.

但自那以來(lái)，中國(guó)官員一直努力阻止人民幣貶值。隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，許多中國(guó)企業(yè)和家庭都在想方設(shè)法把錢(qián)匯到國(guó)外，這可能不僅會(huì)破壞人民幣的穩(wěn)定，還會(huì)破壞中國(guó)金融體系的穩(wěn)定。

Beijing has responded since 2016 with increasingly draconian restrictions on capital movements. Using the formidable investigative and surveillance capabilities of the Chinese police, the government has jailed large numbers of people involved in surreptitious movements of cash abroad.

自2016年以來(lái)，北京方面的回應(yīng)是對(duì)資本流動(dòng)施加越來(lái)越嚴(yán)格的限制。政府利用中國(guó)警方強(qiáng)大的調(diào)查和監(jiān)視能力，將大量參與秘密向海外轉(zhuǎn)移現(xiàn)金的人投入監(jiān)獄。

The crackdown has almost completely halted what had been a flood of Chinese money into American real estate and even European soccer clubs in 2015 and early 2016. China now approves few overseas acquisitions by its companies except in areas where it could acquire a geopolitical or military advantage, such as aircraft production, heavy manufacturing, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence.

在2015年和2016年初，中國(guó)資金大舉流向美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)，甚至歐洲的足球俱樂(lè)部，但此次打擊行動(dòng)幾乎完全阻止了這一趨勢(shì)。除了在飛機(jī)生產(chǎn)、重型制造、網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全和人工智能等可能獲得地緣政治或軍事優(yōu)勢(shì)的領(lǐng)域以外，中國(guó)目前很少批準(zhǔn)本國(guó)企業(yè)進(jìn)行海外收購(gòu)交易。

Mr. Yi spoke on Sunday at the annual news conference of the central bank’s leadership, held in conjunction with the 11-day session of the National People’s Congress.

易綱是在周日舉行的央行領(lǐng)導(dǎo)年度新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說(shuō)這番話的，與此同時(shí)，為期11天的全國(guó)人民代表大會(huì)正在舉行。