李開(kāi)復(fù)：15年內(nèi)，全球半數(shù)工作將被人工智能取代

人工智能取代人類(lèi)工作的預(yù)言早已不新鮮，而且正在變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。近日，中國(guó)人工智能專(zhuān)家李開(kāi)復(fù)警告說(shuō)，未來(lái)15年內(nèi)世界上一半的工作將因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄芏?。李開(kāi)復(fù)還建議父母?jìng)児膭?lì)孩子放手去做自己最想做的事情，讓孩子們學(xué)會(huì)溝通，這樣才能在人工智能時(shí)代更好地生存下去。

Half of current jobs will be taken over by AI within 15 years, China's leading AI expert has warned.

中國(guó)頂級(jí)人工智能專(zhuān)家李開(kāi)復(fù)警告說(shuō)，15年內(nèi)人工智能將奪走人類(lèi)現(xiàn)在一半的工作。

Kai-Fu Lee, the author of bestselling book AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, told Dailymail.com the world of employments was facing a crisis 'akin to that faced by farmers during the industrial revolution.'

暢銷(xiāo)書(shū)《人工智能超級(jí)大國(guó)：中國(guó)、硅谷和新世界秩序》的作者李開(kāi)復(fù)告訴每日郵報(bào)網(wǎng)站說(shuō)，全世界的職業(yè)都面臨著一場(chǎng)危機(jī)，嚴(yán)重程度“堪比工業(yè)革命時(shí)期農(nóng)民所遭受的威脅”。

akin[?'k?n]: adj. 類(lèi)似的

'People aren't really fully aware of the effect AI will have on their jobs,' he said.

他說(shuō)：“人們還沒(méi)有充分意識(shí)到人工智能會(huì)對(duì)自己的工作產(chǎn)生什么影響。”

Lee, who is a VC in China and once headed up Google in the region, has over 30 years of experience in AI.

李開(kāi)復(fù)是中國(guó)的一位風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人，曾經(jīng)是谷歌在中國(guó)的主管，在人工智能方面有超過(guò)30年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。

VC['vi 'si]: 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資(venture capital)

He believe it is imperative to 'warn people there is displacement coming, and to tell them how they can start retraining.'

他認(rèn)為非常有必要“警告人們將會(huì)有替代自己的機(jī)器人出現(xiàn)，并告訴人們?nèi)绾伍_(kāi)始重新接受培訓(xùn)。”

人工智能最先取代的十個(gè)職業(yè)：

1. Sales and Marketing Research 銷(xiāo)售和市場(chǎng)調(diào)研人員

2. Insurance adjuster 保險(xiǎn)公司算理員

3. Security guards 保安

4. Truck drivers 卡車(chē)司機(jī)

5. Consumer loan underwriter 消費(fèi)者貸款擔(dān)保人

6. Financial and sports journalists 金融和體育記者

7. Bookkeepers & Financial Analysts 簿記員和財(cái)務(wù)分析師

8. Fruit pickers 水果采摘工人

9. Investment professionals 職業(yè)投資人

10. Radiologist 放射科醫(yī)師

Luckily, he said all is not lost for humanity.

李開(kāi)復(fù)指出，幸運(yùn)的是，人類(lèi)并不會(huì)無(wú)事可做。

'AI is powerful and adaptable, but it can't do everything that humans do.'

“人工智能既強(qiáng)大又善于應(yīng)變，但不能勝任人類(lèi)的一切工作。”

Lee believe AI cannot create, conceptualize, or do complex strategic planning, or undertake complex work that requires precise hand-eye coordination.

李開(kāi)復(fù)認(rèn)為，人工智能不能創(chuàng)造、概念化，也不能做復(fù)雜的戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃，或承擔(dān)需要精細(xì)的手眼協(xié)調(diào)的復(fù)雜工作。

He also says it is poor at dealing with unknown and unstructured spaces.

他還表示，人工智能不善于應(yīng)對(duì)未知和缺乏結(jié)構(gòu)的空間。

Crucially, he says AI cannot interact with humans 'exactly like humans', with empathy, human-human connection, and compassion.

他說(shuō)，最關(guān)鍵的是，人工智能無(wú)法“完全像人類(lèi)那樣”與人互動(dòng)，缺乏同理心、同情心，無(wú)法進(jìn)行人與人之間的心靈溝通。

Psychiatrists, social workers and marriage counselors are unlikely to lose their jobs, along with nurses, AI researchers and scientists, he believes.

李開(kāi)復(fù)認(rèn)為，精神病醫(yī)生、社會(huì)工作者、婚姻顧問(wèn)，以及護(hù)士、人工智能研究人員和科學(xué)家都不容易失業(yè)。

人工智能無(wú)法取代的十個(gè)職業(yè)：

1. Psychiatrists 精神病醫(yī)生

2. Therapists 治療師

3. Medical caregivers 醫(yī)護(hù)人員

4. AI researchers and engineers 人工智能研究員和工程師

5. Fiction writers 小說(shuō)作家

6. Teachers 教師

7. Criminal defense attorney 刑事辯護(hù)律師

8. Computer Scientists & Engineers 計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)家和工程師

9. Scientists 科學(xué)家

10. Managers (actually leaders) 經(jīng)理(領(lǐng)導(dǎo))

However, some jobs will disappear- and quickly.

但是，有些職業(yè)卻會(huì)消失，而且很快就會(huì)消失。

Most at risk are telemarketers and telesales people, Lee said, pointing to Google's controversial AI bot system that can fool humans as an example of the future.

李開(kāi)復(fù)說(shuō)，失業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最大的是電話推銷(xiāo)員，他指出，谷歌備受爭(zhēng)議的以假亂真的人工智能機(jī)器人系統(tǒng)就是未來(lái)的一個(gè)例證。

'You've probably already received robo-calls, but future calls will be more natural,' he says.

他說(shuō)：“你很可能已經(jīng)接到過(guò)機(jī)器人的電話，但未來(lái)的機(jī)器人通話聲音將會(huì)更加自然。”

'AI can use customer profiles, past purchases, and emotional recognition to find ways to appeal to them - even using a soothing female voice or a persuasive male voice.'

“人工智能可以通過(guò)客戶資料、歷史購(gòu)買(mǎi)記錄和情感識(shí)別來(lái)尋求吸引客戶的方式，它們甚至可以根據(jù)情況采用舒緩的女性聲音或有說(shuō)服力的男性聲音。”

Lee also said customer support, warehouse workers and telephone operators are at risk.

李開(kāi)復(fù)還提到，客服人員、倉(cāng)管人員和接線員也是高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)職業(yè)。

人工智能時(shí)代的十個(gè)“高危職業(yè)”：

1. Telemarketer / telesales' 電話推銷(xiāo)員

2. Customer support 客服人員

3. Warehouse workers 倉(cāng)管人員

4. Clerks and operational staff 辦事員和操作人員

5. Telephone operators 接線員

6. Teller/cashier 出納員/收銀員

7. Fast food workers 快餐店員

8. Dish washers 洗碗工

9. Assembly line inspector 生產(chǎn)線質(zhì)檢員

10. Couriers 快遞員

Photo by Andy Kelly on Unsplash
 

The key to jobs in the future will be empathy, he said.

他說(shuō)，未來(lái)職業(yè)的關(guān)鍵將是同理心。

'Human to human interaction is safe, providing comfort and satisfaction is safe.

“涉及人與人的互動(dòng)，提供舒適和滿足感的職業(yè)是安全的。”

He also warned education will also have to change dramatically to encourage a new way of thinking, making people 'more individualistic, and more empathetic'.

李開(kāi)復(fù)還警告說(shuō)，教育還必須經(jīng)歷巨大的變革，以鼓勵(lì)新的思維方式，讓人們變得“更有個(gè)性，更具同理心。”

'We also need to focus on what children want to do and show particular passion and talent for something, we need to encourage them to go for it.

“我們還需要關(guān)注孩子們想做的、特別感興趣和有天分的事情，并鼓勵(lì)他們放手去做。”

'Super talent in children will be found earlier.

“孩子身上的過(guò)人才華將會(huì)更早被發(fā)現(xiàn)。”

'Parents need to know whatever they thought was right, is probably wrong.

“父母需要知道，但凡自己所認(rèn)為正確的事情，很可能是錯(cuò)誤的。”

'You need to let your kids go after what they love, and encourage them.

“你需要讓你的孩子去追求自己所熱愛(ài)的事情，并鼓勵(lì)孩子。”

'Make sure they spend a lot of time understanding why it is important to help people, and why communication skills are important - don't play on the phone all the time.'

“一定要讓他們花時(shí)間去理解為什么幫助別人很重要，為什么溝通技能很重要，而不要成天玩手機(jī)。”

He also warned many millennials will need to re-balance their life to focus on social skills - but is confident they will be able to adapt.

他還警告許多千禧一代的人要調(diào)整自己的生活，更多地注重社交技巧，但他相信人們會(huì)適應(yīng)的。

從今天起，思考怎樣做一個(gè)不會(huì)被機(jī)器人取代的人吧!