美國中期選舉的4個關(guān)鍵結(jié)果

Suburbs defect as Trump’s base holds

郊區(qū)倒戈，但特朗普的選民基礎(chǔ)仍牢固

The divergent outcomes in the House and Senate — a Democratic takeover in one chamber, and Republican gains in the other — exposed an ever-deepening gulf separating rural communities from America’s cities and suburbs.

眾議院和參議院不同的選舉結(jié)果——民主黨在眾議院獲得了控制權(quán)，共和黨在參議院增加了席位——暴露出把美國農(nóng)村與城市和郊區(qū)分割開來的鴻溝繼續(xù)加深。

Democratic gains in the House came in densely populated, educated and diverse enclaves around the country, around major liberal cities like New York and Philadelphia and also red-state population centers like Houston and Oklahoma City. The Republican Party’s traditional base in these districts collapsed, with college-educated white voters joining with growing minority communities to repudiate President Trump and his party.

民主黨在眾議院贏得的席位來自美國各地人口密集、受教育程度高、多元化的地區(qū)，包括紐約和費城等主要自由派城市附近的選區(qū)，以及休斯頓和俄克拉荷馬城等紅州人口中心。共和黨的傳統(tǒng)選民基礎(chǔ)在這些選區(qū)崩潰了，選區(qū)里受過大學(xué)教育的白人選民聯(lián)合日益壯大的少數(shù)族裔陣營，拒絕了特朗普總統(tǒng)及其政黨。

Republican victories in the Senate came mainly in the conservative strongholds where Mr. Trump’s popularity has remained steady or grown since 2016. With rural voters moving rightward and the national Democratic Party moving left, Senate Democrats like Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana found it impossible to reassemble the political coalitions that elected them in the past.

共和黨在參議院的勝利主要來自保守派陣營，特朗普在這些陣營的支持率自2016年以來一直保持穩(wěn)定或有所上升。隨著農(nóng)村選民轉(zhuǎn)向右傾，民主黨在全國范圍內(nèi)轉(zhuǎn)向左傾，像密蘇里州的克萊爾·麥卡斯基爾(Claire McCaskill)和印第安納州的喬·唐納利(Joe Donnelly)這樣的參議院民主黨人發(fā)現(xiàn)，重組以前讓他們當(dāng)選的政治聯(lián)盟已不可能。

As a long-term proposition, Democrats may be getting the better end of the bargain: They are winning over voters in growing communities that look more like the country as a whole, while Republicans are increasingly reliant on an aging population of conservative whites to hold up their electoral map. And for now, the Democrats’ eclectic coalition of white moderates, young liberals and African-American, Latino and Asian-American voters was more than enough to seize the House.

從長遠(yuǎn)計劃來看，民主黨人可能得到了這個交易的更好結(jié)局：他們贏得了日益壯大社區(qū)的選民，這些社區(qū)的構(gòu)成與整個國家的更相似，而共和黨人則越來越依賴于日益老齡化的保守派白人人口來維持他們的選舉版圖。目前，由溫和派白人、年輕的自由派、非洲裔美國人、拉美裔美國人，以及亞裔美國人組成的兼容并蓄的民主黨聯(lián)盟已足以控制眾議院。

But the midterm elections also made clear that Mr. Trump and his party continue to hold important structural advantages on the electoral map — including near-total dominance of the conservative states that hold outsized power in the Senate, and a tenacious hold on the governorships of the two biggest swing states on the presidential map, Florida and Ohio.

但中期選舉也清楚地表明，特朗普及其政黨在選舉版圖上繼續(xù)保持著重要的結(jié)構(gòu)性優(yōu)勢，共和黨幾乎贏得了保守州在參議院的全部席位，這些州在參議院擁有超過其人口規(guī)模應(yīng)有的權(quán)力，共和黨也牢牢掌握了佛羅里達州和俄亥俄州的州長職位，這兩個州是總統(tǒng)選舉版圖上最大的搖擺州。

Viral stars fall short

廣為傳播的視頻明星沒有得到預(yù)期的結(jié)果

It was the year of the viral campaign video — powerful ads that helped boost the profiles and fund-raising numbers for Democratic challengers across the country.

這是競選視頻瘋狂傳播的一年，這些有力的廣告幫助全國各地的民主黨挑戰(zhàn)者提升了形象和籌款數(shù)字。

But it was not their night. 但這個選舉夜不是他們的。

Several House candidates whose compelling biographies (and slickly produced renderings of them) helped put them on the national radar lost on Tuesday, including Randy Bryce in Wisconsin, Amy McGrath in Kentucky and M.J. Hegar in Texas. Ms. McGrath and Ms. Hegar made it close in traditionally conservative areas, though Democrats had higher hopes for full breakthroughs in recent weeks.

幾位眾議員候選人引人注目的個人履歷(以及用這些履歷嫻熟制作的視頻)幫助他們獲得了全國范圍的關(guān)注，但他們在周二的選舉中失利，其中包括威斯康星州的蘭迪·布萊斯(Randy Bryce)、肯塔基州的艾米·麥格拉思(Amy McGrath)，以及德克薩斯州的M·J·黑加爾(M.J. Hegar)。麥格拉思和黑加爾都在傳統(tǒng)上較為保守的選區(qū)贏得了接近半數(shù)的選票，不過，民主黨人在最近幾周曾對她們的全面突破抱有更高的希望。

The conclusion is certainly not that viral videos are counterproductive; they remain a useful and efficient way to raise money and introduce a candidate to a wider audience. But at times, it seems, the audience was not always the intended constituency. Mr. Bryce, for instance, was an MSNBC darling — one of the most talked-about progressive candidates this cycle after his introductory video gained wide distribution, highlighting his ironworker background and signature mustache and hard hat. He appeared poised to lose by double digits, running in the district that House Speaker Paul D. Ryan is vacating.

結(jié)論當(dāng)然不是瘋狂傳播的視頻會幫倒忙;它們?nèi)匀皇腔I集資金和向更大范圍的觀眾介紹候選人的有效方法。但看來，這些觀眾有時并不總是目標(biāo)群體。比如，介紹布萊斯的視頻被廣泛傳播后，他成了MSNBC的寵兒，是該頻道在這輪選舉中談?wù)撟疃嗟倪M步派候選人之一。介紹視頻強調(diào)了布萊斯的制鐵工人背景，突出展示了他標(biāo)志性的大胡子和帶著安全帽的樣子。他在眾議院議長保羅·D·瑞安(Paul D. Ryan)即將騰出席位的選區(qū)參加競選，看來會以兩位數(shù)的差距落選。

And then there was the Texas Senate race, where Senator Ted Cruz felled the most viral candidate of them all: Beto O’Rourke, who livestreamed virtually every waking moment on the campaign trail, from burger stops to three-hour drives.

再就是德克薩斯州的參議員競選，參議員特德·克魯茲(Ted Cruz)擊敗了有最瘋傳視頻的候選人：貝托·歐洛克(Beto O’rourke)，他在網(wǎng)上直播了競選期間的幾乎每個醒著的時刻，從在漢堡店小停到三個小時的開車。

Opponents of abortion win big

反對墮胎者大獲全勝

Republicans gained some of their most important ground on Tuesday by electing several new senators who are opposed to abortion rights, a development that will help the party advance one of its bedrock issues.

共和黨人周二在重要方面取得進展，選出了幾名反對墮胎權(quán)利的新參議員，這將幫助推動該黨的根基問題之一。

By picking up Democratic-held Senate seats in Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri — and possibly elsewhere — the Republican majority will be decidedly further to the right on the issue. And no longer will the votes of two senators who support abortion rights — Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — be as pivotal when it comes to confirming judges and passing legislation.

共和黨在印第安納州、北達科他州和密蘇里州——可能還有其他地方——贏得了目前由民主黨擁有的參議院席位，這肯定將讓參議院的共和黨多數(shù)派在墮胎問題上進一步偏右。在確認(rèn)法官和通過立法時，兩名支持墮胎權(quán)利的參議員——緬因州的蘇珊·柯林斯(Susan Collins)和阿拉斯加的麗莎·穆爾科斯基(Lisa Murkowski)——的投票將不再那么關(guān)鍵。

The elections of Josh Hawley in Missouri, Mike Braun in Indiana and Kevin Cramer in North Dakota — all opponents of abortion — have emboldened anti-abortion activists and would appear to make it far easier for the Senate to confirm judges who are seen as likely to strike down legal protections contained in Roe v. Wade.

密蘇里州的喬希·霍利(Josh Hawley)、印第安納州的邁克·布勞恩(Mike Braun)，以及北達科他州的凱文·克拉默(Kevin Cramer)都反對墮胎，他們的當(dāng)選讓反墮胎活動人士更有信心，看來也會讓參議院確認(rèn)被人們視為可能推翻包含在羅伊訴韋德案(Roe v. Wade)中的法律保護的法官變得更容易。

“A good night for life,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List, a group that created extensive field operations to turn out anti-abortion voters in many of the states where Republicans saw their biggest gains.

“生命的美好之夜，”“蘇珊·B·安東尼名單”組織(Susan B. Anthony List)的主席瑪喬麗·丹南菲爾塞爾(Marjorie Dannenfelser)說，該組織在許多共和黨人贏得票數(shù)最多的州成立了很多行動辦公室，鼓動反墮胎的選民出來投票。

In another series of victories for the anti-abortion movement, key governors’ races also swung its way. Iowa, Florida, Georgia and Ohio all elected governors on Tuesday night who oppose abortion rights.

反墮胎運動的另一系列的勝利是，幾個關(guān)鍵州的州長競選結(jié)果也在倒向支持這個運動。周二晚，艾奧瓦州、佛羅里達州、喬治亞州和俄亥俄州都選出了反對墮胎權(quán)利的州長。

And in two states, Alabama and West Virginia, voters approved ballot initiatives intended to limit abortion rights and provoke a legal challenge to Roe v. Wade.

在阿拉巴馬和西弗吉尼亞這兩個州，選民們通過了旨在限制墮胎權(quán)利的投票倡議，對羅伊訴韋德案發(fā)起了法律挑戰(zhàn)。

Mr. Trump earned his support among white evangelicals by promising, and delivering, their biggest policy priorities — among the biggest was naming two conservative Supreme Court justices who had the approval of anti-abortion groups. Social conservatives are still hoping for a third.

特朗普之所以贏得白人福音派信徒的支持，是因為他向他們承諾并實現(xiàn)了他們最關(guān)心的政策重點——其中最重要的是任命了兩位得到反墮胎組織認(rèn)可的保守派最高法院大法官。社會保守派人士仍在希望任命第三名。

Though the power of an anti-abortion majority in the Senate will be most immediately apparent in the judicial confirmation process, it is less clear how the new senators can affect longstanding policy goals of conservatives like the defunding of Planned Parenthood. That would seem a nearly impossible task with the Democrats in control of the House.

雖然在參議院占多數(shù)席位的反墮胎者的力量將很快會在司法確認(rèn)過程中有明顯表現(xiàn)，但新當(dāng)選的參議員對保守派的長期政策目標(biāo)(比如取消對“計劃生育”[Planned Parenthood]組織的財政資助)會有什么影響，目前尚不清楚。在民主黨控制眾議院的情況下，這似乎是一項幾乎不可能完成的任務(wù)。

The year of the woman: what it all meant

女性之年：這意味著什么

Women, running for office in record numbers, helped Democrats win control of the House of Representatives.

參加競選的女性人數(shù)創(chuàng)下歷史新高，幫助民主黨贏得了眾議院的控制權(quán)。

Their victories were the fruit of two years of activism that began with women’s marches across the country on the day after President Trump’s inauguration. Women stepped up to run for office and support those who did.

她們的勝利是兩年的積極行動的成果，這些行動始于特朗普總統(tǒng)就職第二天發(fā)生在全國各地的婦女大游行。大批女性站出來競選公職，以及支持那些參加競選的女性。

Pennsylvania, which had no women in its congressional delegation, elected four of them. In New Jersey, where three seats flipped to the Democrats, the only woman, Mikie Sherrill, won her race by the largest margin, in a district President Trump won in 2016. In Iowa, a state Mr. Trump won, Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne wrested seats from Republicans.

賓夕法尼亞州這次選出了四名女性進入其國會代表團，以前一名都沒有。在新澤西州，民主黨從共和黨手中奪得了三個眾議院席位，唯一的女性米琪·謝里爾(Mikie Sherrill)在2016年的總統(tǒng)選舉中特朗普獲勝的選區(qū)以最大的優(yōu)勢贏得了競選。在特朗普獲勝的艾奧瓦州，艾比·芬克瑙爾(Abby Finkenauer)和辛迪·阿克塞妮(Cindy Axne)從共和黨手中奪得了席位。

Suburban women defected from Republicans. Several female candidates prevailed in traditionally Republican districts, backed by college-educated women alienated by the Trump administration.

郊區(qū)女性倒戈共和黨。一些女性候選人在傳統(tǒng)上屬于共和黨的選區(qū)獲勝，她們的支持者是受過大學(xué)教育、與特朗普政府疏遠(yuǎn)的女性。

Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria flipped Republican seats in Virginia, where women mobilized in 2017 to elect female challengers to the state legislature. Lauren Underwood toppled a Republican incumbent outside of Chicago by appealing to women’s concerns about Republican attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. And Angie Craig beat a Republican incumbent in a suburban Minnesota district.

阿比蓋爾·斯潘伯格(Abigail Spanberger)和伊萊恩·盧里亞(Elaine Luria)在弗吉尼亞州奪走了目前由共和黨擁有的席位。弗吉尼亞州的女性曾在2017年動員民眾，在州立法機構(gòu)競選中把票投給女性挑戰(zhàn)者。在芝加哥郊外，勞倫·安德伍德(Lauren Underwood)通過呼吁女性關(guān)注共和黨試圖廢除《合理醫(yī)療費用法案》(Affordable Care Act)的做法，推翻了一名共和黨現(xiàn)任議員。安吉·克雷格(Angie Craig)在明尼蘇達州的一個郊區(qū)選區(qū)擊敗了一名共和黨現(xiàn)任議員。

Women marked historic firsts, particularly among Democrats.

女性創(chuàng)造了多個歷史上的第一次，尤其是在民主黨人中。

In Massachusetts, Ayanna Pressley became the first woman of color in her state’s congressional delegation. Rashida Tlaib in Michigan and Ilhan Omar in Minnesota will became the first Muslim women in Congress. Sharice Davids toppled a male Republican in Kansas and Deb Haaland prevailed in New Mexico, becoming the first Native American women elected to Congress. In Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn, a Republican, became the state’s first woman elected to the Senate.

在馬薩諸塞州，艾安娜·普萊斯利(Ayanna Pressley)成為該州國會代表團中首位有色人種女性。密歇根州的拉什達·塔爾布(Rashida Tlaib)和明尼蘇達州的伊爾汗·奧馬爾(Ilhan Omar)將是首次進入國會的穆斯林女性議員。沙麗斯·戴維斯(Sharice Davids)在堪薩斯州擊敗了一名男性共和黨人，黛布·哈蘭(Deb Haaland)在新墨西哥州獲勝，她兩人將是首次被選入國會的美國原住民女性。在田納西州，共和黨人瑪莎·布萊克本(Marsha Blackburn)成為該州選出的首位女性參議員。

But once again, voters proved reluctant to elect female governors.

但事實再次表明，選民們不愿意選女性當(dāng)州長。

While several women were elected — Laura Kelly of Kansas, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico, among others — they did not break the record of nine women, set in 2004. Voters have been more hesitant to choose women as chief executives, rather than legislators.

雖然有幾位女性當(dāng)選——堪薩斯州的勞拉·凱利(Laura Kelly)、密歇根州的格雷琴·惠特默(Gretchen Whitmer)、新墨西哥州的米歇爾·盧揚·格里沙姆(Michelle Lujan Grisham)等——但她們并沒有打破2004年創(chuàng)下的9名女性當(dāng)選州長的記錄。選民們在選擇女性擔(dān)任首席行政官上，比選擇她們擔(dān)任立法者上，更加猶豫不決。