人民幣匯率逼近7.0關(guān)口，或成北京重要貿(mào)易武器

BEIJING — As the United States and China swap threats and mete out increasingly punishing tariffs, the world is watching to see whether Beijing turns to one of its most potent economic weapons. It involves the number 7.

北京——隨著美中兩國(guó)相互威脅，實(shí)施越來(lái)越嚴(yán)厲的關(guān)稅，全世界也在關(guān)注北京是否會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)而利用其最有效的經(jīng)濟(jì)武器。這個(gè)武器涉及數(shù)字“7”。

China’s currency, the renminbi, has been gradually losing value since mid-April, and on Tuesday it was at its weakest point in a decade. If the currency weakens any further, it could fall below the psychologically important level of 7 renminbi to the dollar. The last time it took more than 7 renminbi to buy a dollar was in May 2008, as the world was slipping into a financial crisis.

自四月中旬以來(lái)，中國(guó)的貨幣人民幣一直在逐漸貶值，周二，人民幣跌至十年來(lái)最低點(diǎn)。如果進(jìn)一步貶值，人民幣可能會(huì)跌至兌美元匯率7的重要心理關(guān)口以下。上一次，買(mǎi)進(jìn)一美元需要7元人民幣還是2008年5月，當(dāng)時(shí)全世界正陷入金融危機(jī)。

The Trump administration doesn’t like the idea of a weaker Chinese currency. That could give what it considers an unfair advantage to China’s exporters. In the arsenal of trade disputes, currencies can be potent weapons.

特朗普政府不喜歡中國(guó)貨幣走弱的情況。在他們看來(lái)，這會(huì)讓中國(guó)出口商獲得不公平的優(yōu)勢(shì)。在貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端中，貨幣可以是一個(gè)有力武器。

But China has good reason to keep its currency from weakening, and it appears to have acted in recent weeks to prop it up. Currencies may be potent weapons, but they are blunt ones — and they can boomerang against those who use them.

但中國(guó)有著不讓本國(guó)貨幣貶值的充分理由，而它似乎也已經(jīng)在近幾周內(nèi)采取行動(dòng)讓人民幣升值。貨幣可能會(huì)是有力武器，但同時(shí)它們又是一種鈍器——此外，用貨幣作為武器可能也會(huì)搬起石頭砸自己的腳。

What happens if the renminbi falls past 7 to the dollar?

如果人民幣兌美元跌破7，會(huì)怎么樣?

There is nothing particularly threatening about the number 7 itself. The renminbi at 7.002 to the dollar is pretty similar to the currency at 6.998 to the dollar.

7這個(gè)數(shù)字本身不具有什么特別威脅。人民幣兌美元匯率為7.002與兌美元為6.998的時(shí)候沒(méi)什么大的差別。

But passing that number would be significant symbolically. It would suggest China is prepared to let its currency weaken further still. That would give China’s factory owners an advantage when they sell their goods in the United States. It would also undermine the tariffs the Trump administration has levied on more than $250 billion in Chinese-made products.

但突破7這個(gè)大關(guān)具有重大意義。這意味著中國(guó)準(zhǔn)備好要讓本國(guó)匯率進(jìn)一步貶值。這將讓中國(guó)的工廠(chǎng)老板在美國(guó)銷(xiāo)售商品時(shí)獲得優(yōu)勢(shì)。這還將破壞特朗普政府對(duì)超過(guò)2500億美元中國(guó)制造商品征收的關(guān)稅。

How would that help China?

這將對(duì)中國(guó)有何好處?

Say you own a Chinese factory making lawn ornaments, and you sell a lot of pink flamingos to an American retailer. You price each at $1 — they may sell for far more in the United States, but shipping and storage account for most of that. When the renminbi is 6 to the dollar, that translates to 6 renminbi in sales.

假設(shè)你擁有一家制造草坪裝飾品的中國(guó)工廠(chǎng)，向一家美國(guó)零售商銷(xiāo)售大量粉色火烈鳥(niǎo)。每款產(chǎn)品的定價(jià)為一美元——他們可能會(huì)以高得多的價(jià)格在美國(guó)出售，但其中運(yùn)輸及倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)占了大部分。當(dāng)人民幣兌美元匯率為6時(shí)，這就等于銷(xiāo)售額為6元人民幣。

But when the currency depreciates to 7 to the dollar, that $1 flamingo is worth 7 renminbi in sales to you. Or you can cut the price — say, from $1 to 85.7 cents — and still make your original 6 renminbi in sales. Your American competitor, who has to buy and sell in dollars, has to grudgingly cut prices to compete.

但當(dāng)人民幣匯率跌至兌美元為7的時(shí)候，一美元的火烈鳥(niǎo)在銷(xiāo)售額上就等于7元人民幣?；蛘吣阋部梢越祪r(jià)——比如從一美元降到85.7美分——銷(xiāo)售額就仍然是原本的6元人民幣。但你那些必須以美元交易的美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手為了能與之競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，就得不情愿地降價(jià)。

(It’s a lot more complicated in the real world. The plastic and metal for the plastic flamingo may have been imported to China and are priced in dollars. But bear with us.)

(現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中，情況要復(fù)雜得多。制造塑料火烈鳥(niǎo)所需的塑料和金屬可能是以美元進(jìn)口到中國(guó)的。但請(qǐng)耐心聽(tīng)我們解釋。)

A weaker currency can also help Chinese exporters beat President Trump’s tariffs. Right now, the United States imposes tariffs of about 10 percent on a wide variety of Chinese goods that arrive at an American port. If the renminbi has fallen 10 percent, the tariff is basically nullified.

人民幣走弱還能有助于中國(guó)出口商擊敗特朗普總統(tǒng)的關(guān)稅。目前，美國(guó)對(duì)多種抵達(dá)某個(gè)美國(guó)港口的中國(guó)商品征收約10%的關(guān)稅。如果人民幣下跌10%，關(guān)稅基本上就失去了效力。

What’s driving the decline?

是什么造成了人民幣貶值?

Some politicians in the United States and elsewhere have long said that China manipulates its currency, even though Washington officials — including in the Trump administration — have stopped short of official accusations. But in this case, many of the forces weakening the currency are beyond Beijing’s immediate control.

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，一些美國(guó)及其他地方的政治人士一直在說(shuō)中國(guó)操縱匯率，盡管華盛頓官員——包括特朗普政府內(nèi)的官員——并沒(méi)有做出正式的指責(zé)。但具體在這里，許多導(dǎo)致人民幣疲軟的因素都不在北京直接可控的范圍內(nèi)。

China’s financial system is firmly controlled by the government, giving the country’s leaders a great degree of control over how much the renminbi is worth. Officials set a daily benchmark rate for the renminbi and allow its value to move a smidgen above or below that level in currency markets. Chinese officials say each day’s trading activity helps determine the value they set for the renminbi the next day, but they disclose few details about how that works.

中國(guó)金融體系由政府牢牢把控，這讓該國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人就人民幣價(jià)值幾何擁有大量控制權(quán)。官員們每日為人民幣設(shè)下基準(zhǔn)匯率，并且允許其價(jià)值在貨幣市場(chǎng)中在該水平上小幅上下波動(dòng)。中國(guó)官員表示，每天的交易活動(dòng)能有助于為第二天人民幣匯率定價(jià)，但他們很少披露運(yùn)作過(guò)程的細(xì)節(jié)。

On Tuesday, Beijing set that guidepost at 6.9574, just a hair’s breadth stronger than 7. In the world of foreign exchange, a higher number means a weaker currency.

周二，北京將基準(zhǔn)設(shè)為6.9574，僅比7強(qiáng)一點(diǎn)。在外匯市場(chǎng)上，數(shù)字越大，貨幣就越走弱。

Right now, traders are sending Beijing a single message: The renminbi should be worth less. The people and companies that hold the currency have become increasingly nervous about China’s slowing economic growth, slumping stock market, fragile real estate market and seemingly intractable trade war with the United States. Inflation has begun to tick upward, and rising prices tend to make holding the relevant currency less attractive.

目前，交易員們正在給北京發(fā)出一條信息：人民幣不應(yīng)再貶值了。面對(duì)中國(guó)放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì)、暴跌的股市、脆弱的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)及與美國(guó)似乎很棘手的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，持有人民幣的個(gè)人和公司愈發(fā)感到緊張不安。通貨膨脹開(kāi)始上升，上漲的物價(jià)也將讓持有相關(guān)貨幣變得不那么具有吸引力。

There are other reasons. Since late July, Beijing has tried to prop up the economy by having the state-controlled banking sector increase lending, making money more available. That means even more renminbi sloshing around, weakening the currency’s value.

還有其他原因。自7月底以來(lái)，北京一直在試圖通過(guò)讓國(guó)家控制的銀行業(yè)增加借貸、讓人們能借到錢(qián)，來(lái)提振經(jīng)濟(jì)。這意味著市場(chǎng)上將流通更多人民幣，會(huì)進(jìn)一步削弱人民幣幣值。

While China hasn’t raised interest rates, the Federal Reserve in Washington has. That makes it attractive for many people to sell their renminbi and buy dollars. Would you rather have a one-year renminbi certificate of deposit that pays 1.5 percent interest now, or a one-year dollar C.D. that pays out 2.6 percent or more?

盡管中國(guó)還沒(méi)有加息，華盛頓的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)這么做了。這會(huì)引得更多人賣(mài)掉手中的人民幣，買(mǎi)入美元。你會(huì)更愿意有一張利率為1.5%的人民幣一年存單，還是利率為2.6%甚至更高的美元一年存單?

Is the drop deliberate on Beijing’s part?

人民幣貶值是北京蓄意為之的嗎?

Not quite. If anything, Beijing is trying to keep the renminbi from falling too fast.

不見(jiàn)得。真要說(shuō)有什么舉措的話(huà)，北京反倒在試圖阻止人民幣貶值太快。

China has a number of ways to bolster the currency’s value. One option is to follow the Fed’s example and raise interest rates. That would give Chinese families and companies more incentive to keep their money in China. But that would raise the cost of borrowing in China, just as the economy is slowing.

要想抬高幣值，中國(guó)有各種手段。一個(gè)選擇就是按照美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的做法，提高利率。這將讓中國(guó)的家庭與公司有更多將資金留在中國(guó)的動(dòng)力。但這個(gè)做法會(huì)提高在中國(guó)借貸的成本，尤其是在經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的時(shí)候。

Beijing could buy up its own currency instead. Like anything else, the renminbi’s value rises when it is scarcer.

北京可以通過(guò)購(gòu)買(mǎi)提升人民幣幣值。就像其他東西一樣，當(dāng)變得更稀有的時(shí)候，人民幣幣值會(huì)升高。

Thanks to the way it has managed its currency over the years, China has amassed the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves — a $3 trillion stash of money it keeps in dollars, euros, pounds, yen and other currencies. It has begun to tap that stash. When China’s central bank released its monthly balance sheet a week ago, it showed a drop of almost $20 billion in foreign currency just during September.

多虧了中國(guó)多年來(lái)管理貨幣的方式，中國(guó)已經(jīng)積聚起了世界上最大的外匯儲(chǔ)備——價(jià)值3萬(wàn)億美元的資金，分別為美元、歐元、英鎊、日元及其他貨幣。中國(guó)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始動(dòng)用這筆資金。當(dāng)中國(guó)央行上周公布其月份資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表時(shí)，表上顯示出9月期間，外匯儲(chǔ)備下降約200億美元。

“Selling almost $20 billion in a month won’t break the bank,” said Brad W. Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “But it does indicate the direction of current market pressure.”

“在一個(gè)月里賣(mài)出近200億美元不會(huì)耗盡儲(chǔ)備，”紐約的美國(guó)外交關(guān)系委員會(huì)(Council on Foreign Relations)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家布拉德·W·塞策(Brad W. Setser)表示。“但它確實(shí)表明了目前市場(chǎng)壓力的方向。”

What are the broader risks?

更廣泛的層面有什么風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?

Three years ago, as its economy slowed, China devalued the renminbi in part to give its factories a helping hand. The financial world was shocked. Markets plunged.

3年前，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，中國(guó)讓人民幣貶值，部分是為了幫中國(guó)工廠(chǎng)一把。當(dāng)時(shí)金融世界受到震動(dòng)，股市暴跌。

As Chinese officials hurried to explain themselves, people and companies began shifting their money — money that China’s economy needed — outside the country. A year later, China had spent more than $500 billion from its reserves in an effort to shore up the renminbi. It later tightened controls on the financial system to shut off many ways people used to get money out of the country.

就在中國(guó)官員匆忙為自己的行為作出解釋的時(shí)候，個(gè)人和公司開(kāi)始將自己的資金轉(zhuǎn)出國(guó)外，而這些資金正是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)所需要的。一年后，為了支撐人民幣，中國(guó)已經(jīng)將外匯儲(chǔ)備花掉了超過(guò)5000億美元。中國(guó)后來(lái)收緊了對(duì)金融體系的控制，關(guān)掉了許多人們?cè)?jīng)用來(lái)將資金轉(zhuǎn)出國(guó)外的渠道。

Should the trade war intensify, China may look to make more aggressive moves with its currency. But as history shows, there can be a price to pay.

如果貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)惡化，中國(guó)可能會(huì)在貨幣方面考慮更加激進(jìn)的措施。但歷史表明，這么做是有代價(jià)的。