國際貨幣基金組織下調(diào)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)期

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast on global economic growth to 3.7% for 2018 and 2019, a 0.2 percentage point lower for both years than its April estimate, citing rising trade protection and the instability in emerging markets.

鑒于日益升級(jí)的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義和新興市場(chǎng)的不穩(wěn)定性，國際貨幣基金組織近日將其對(duì)2018年和2019年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的預(yù)期下調(diào)至3.7%，較其4月對(duì)這兩年的預(yù)期值均調(diào)降了0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

According to the latest World Economic Outlook(WEO), the US is expected to grow slower at 2.5% next year due to recently announced trade measures, including the tariffs imposed on $200 billion of US imports from China.

根據(jù)最新的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》，鑒于美國近期宣布的貿(mào)易舉措，包括對(duì)從中國進(jìn)口的價(jià)值2000億美元的商品征收關(guān)稅，國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)計(jì)明年美國增速將放緩至2.5%。

In April's forecast, the IMF anticipated a 2.7% increase in the US economy.

在4月的預(yù)期中，國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)計(jì)美國明年經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長2.7%。

Escalating trade tensions and the potential shift away from a multilateral, rules-based trading system are key threats to the global outlook, WEO warned.

《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》警告稱，升級(jí)的貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)和對(duì)多邊、以規(guī)則為基礎(chǔ)的貿(mào)易體系的偏離傾向是對(duì)全球預(yù)期的主要威脅。

 

 

It added that intensification of trade tensions, and the associated rise in policy uncertainty, could dent business and financial market sentiment, trigger financial market volatility, and slow investment and trade.

《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》還指出，貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)加劇以及由此帶來的政策不確定性上升，可能挫傷商業(yè)和金融市場(chǎng)情緒，引發(fā)金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩，并導(dǎo)致投資和貿(mào)易減緩。

IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said in a statement, "Without multi-lateralism, the world will be a poorer and more dangerous place".

國際貨幣基金組織首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家莫里斯·奧伯斯法爾德在一份聲明中表示：“沒有多邊主義，世界將是一個(gè)更貧窮、更危險(xiǎn)的地方。”

"Higher trade barriers would disrupt global supply chains and slow the spread of new technologies, ultimately lowering global productivity and welfare. More import restrictions would also make tradable consumer goods less affordable, harming low-income households disproportionately."

“貿(mào)易壁壘的增加會(huì)破壞全球供應(yīng)鏈，阻礙新技術(shù)傳播，最終導(dǎo)致全球生產(chǎn)率和福利下降。更多的進(jìn)口限制還會(huì)提高可貿(mào)易消費(fèi)品的成本，對(duì)低收入家庭造成特別大的損害。”