精辟！傅瑩在外媒發(fā)表的這篇文章，把中美當下復雜問題徹底講透了

9月11日，美國主流媒體彭博社(Bloomberg)刊登了全國人民代表大會外事委員會副主任委員、中國社科院全球戰(zhàn)略智庫首席專家傅瑩的署名文章，引起了國外各界的廣泛關注。

文章題為《中國如何應對變化中的美國?》(How Should China Respond to a Changing U.S.?)，摘編自傅瑩2018年8月28-29日在亞洲協(xié)會等機構的演講《中美今天的選擇決定未來兩國關系》。

傅瑩在文中對當下中美關系、美國對華態(tài)度發(fā)表了精辟的見解，我們一起來看看。

1美國對中國的態(tài)度發(fā)生變化

傅瑩在文章中談到，她在最近訪美期間，發(fā)現(xiàn)美國人對華態(tài)度變了。

美國學者普遍認為：

The U.S. was frustrated at not having shaped China in its own image, despite bringing the country into the World Trade Organization and helping to enable its economic takeoff.

在美國幫助中國加入世貿(mào)組織、實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟騰飛之后，中國沒有接受美國的政治制度，美方對此感到失望。

Instead, China had “ripped off” the U.S. by taking advantage of it in trade and business. There was concern at how fast China was climbing up the global economic and technological ladder, and that its military was threatening to “elbow out” the U.S. from Asia.

相反，在雙方經(jīng)貿(mào)交往中，中國還“占盡美方的便宜”，美方更擔心中國在全球經(jīng)濟和技術階梯上的快速提升。美方還認為在軍事上受到被中國‘擠出’亞洲的威脅。

2美國的指責是否公允

傅瑩認為，首先中國應該思考一個問題：美國的指責是否公允(the Chinese people first have to ask whether U.S. criticisms are fair)?

傅瑩說，美國在中國未能實現(xiàn)自己的政治目標，但顯然這不是美國唯一的“失敗”，更不是最慘痛的。

In fact, given what’s happened to some countries since the “color revolutions” and the “Arab Spring,” the U.S. should be thankful that its efforts haven’t thrown China into political turmoil and economic chaos. The fact that China has maintained social and political stability and followed its own economic path has contributed to global economic growth, especially after the 2008 financial crisis.

在見證了“顏色革命”和“阿拉伯之春”給一些國家?guī)淼暮蠊?，美國應該慶幸，中國沒有自廢武功地走上錯誤的道路，既沒陷入政治動蕩，也沒出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟混亂，而是保持總體社會穩(wěn)定，成功走出一條符合自身國情的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展道路，為全球經(jīng)濟——特別是2008年金融危機之后的全球經(jīng)濟——做出了貢獻。

伊拉克和阿富汗的重建讓美國耗費了大量財政資源，而中國的發(fā)展極大地惠及了美國的繁榮。

3中國在全球化過程中的角色

的確，中國的經(jīng)濟得到了快速發(fā)展。

Taking advantage of the globalization promoted by the U.S. and Europe, hardworking Chinese gained access to global capital, technologies, expertise and markets, all of which facilitated the growth of industry. Hundreds of millions of Chinese came out of poverty, and living standards in the country have risen substantially.

通過充分利用美歐推動的全球化帶來的機遇，勤勞的中國人有效使用了國際資金、技術、經(jīng)驗和市場，促進了工業(yè)化進程。數(shù)以億計的中國人民擺脫了貧困，人民生活水平取得巨大提升。

但必須記住兩點：

? First, Chinese workers paid a steep cost for these developments, just as American workers did.

第一，與他們的美國同行一樣，中國工人為這些發(fā)展付出了巨大的代價。

After entering the World Trade Organization, Chinese enterprises were suddenly thrown into direct competition with global peers. Many of them didn’t survive, leading to huge layoffs all over the country.

例如，入世之后，國內(nèi)企業(yè)突然直接面對國際競爭，多數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)陷入困難，有的甚至難以為繼，大量工人下崗。

? Second, China’s gains have benefited the U.S. as well.

第二，中國的發(fā)展同樣惠及美國。

According to Oxford Economics, U.S.-China trade helps each American family save $850 every year. Between 2001 and 2016, U.S. commodities exports to China expanded five times, much higher than the 90 percent average increase.

牛津研究院估計，從中國進口的低價商品幫助普通美國家庭平均每年節(jié)省850美元。從2001年到2016年，美國貨物貿(mào)易對華出口增長500%，遠高于同期對全球出口90%的增幅。

The advent of the “internet of things” and rapid growth in the number of China’s middle- and upper-class consumers will offer even more opportunities for U.S. companies.

萬物聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代的到來和中國快速增長的中高收入消費者群體的出現(xiàn)，將為美國公司提供更多機會。

所以說，中國已成為世界經(jīng)濟不可分割的組成部分。

China is not only an integral part of the global economy, but also an indispensable source of growth.

中國已成為世界經(jīng)濟不可分割的組成部分，更是世界經(jīng)濟增長不可或缺的重要動力來源之一。

Any attempt to “decouple” it from the U.S. or the global economy will hurt all countries, including the U.S.

任何“脫鉤”的嘗試都必然給世界各國帶來嚴重的損傷，包括對美國。

4 中國應如何回應?

傅瑩認為，面對美國的強硬但混亂的聲音，我們需要保持淡定，重要的是聚焦自身發(fā)展，解決好自己的問題。

The Chinese have to stay cool-headed in the face of tough but confusing messages from the U.S. We must stay focused on China’s development, and overcome our own difficulties.

接下來，傅瑩解釋了中國為什么沒有對美采取更加對抗的態(tài)度。

China is not adopting a more confrontational stance toward the U.S. Its current attitude is part of its overall foreign policy, which is aimed at ensuring a sound environment that facilitates effective cooperation with the outside world to serve China’s development goals.

中國沒有對美采取更加對抗的態(tài)度。因為，中國對美政策是整體外交政策的組成部分，而中國外交政策的目標是維護一個和平的外部環(huán)境和合作的國際關系，以服務于國家的發(fā)展。

For its purposes, there’s every reason for China to maintain an attitude of “constructive cooperation” with the U.S.

因此，中國有理由繼續(xù)堅持“建設性合作”的政策。

5 中國如何應對中美貿(mào)易摩擦

傅瑩坦言，中美關系的變局對中國也是又一次倒逼改革的機會。

In fact, changes in U.S.-China relations may help to push China’s own desired reforms.

美方工商界提出來的市場準入等問題，許多正是中方需要通過改革著力解決的。

The government is, in fact, opening up: Eight out of the 11 market-opening measures announced by President Xi Jinping in April have been put in place, covering banking, securities, insurance, credit rating, credit investigation and payment, and so on.

事實上，中國政府正在進一步推進開放：國家主席習近平今年四月宣布的11項開發(fā)市場的具體承諾，迄已落實8項，涉及銀行、證券、保險、評級、征信、支付等。

The government is also working harder to improve the business environment and strengthen intellectual property protections for both Chinese and foreign enterprises.

政府也在下大力氣改善營商環(huán)境，加強對中外企業(yè)知識產(chǎn)權的保護。

Chinese reformers can turn outside pressure to their advantage, using it to bust through internal resistance to necessary changes.

中國的改革者可以將外部壓力轉化為動力，打破阻力、實現(xiàn)必要的改革成效。

6中方絕不會屈服于關稅霸凌

傅瑩說，但有一點必須清楚：中方絕不會屈服于關稅霸凌(make no mistake: The Chinese people will stand firm against U.S. bullying over trade)。

There is talk about China’s economy “sliding down” as a result of the trade war. Some expect China to succumb soon. I can tell you that this is wishful thinking.

有些言論聲稱貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)使中國經(jīng)濟“滑坡”，還有人認為可以期待中國屈服了。這只是一廂情愿。

傅瑩提到，中國經(jīng)濟正在去杠桿期間，本身就存在較多痛點，處于咬緊牙關砥礪前行的階段，這也是為了維持未來的健康發(fā)展不得不做的。

It’s worth remembering that China adopted a stimulus program to help overcome the global recession triggered by the 2008 financial tsunami in the U.S. And it’s worth noting that the trade war may slow the necessary process of deleveraging.

需要提的一句是，2008年金融危機以來，中國正是為了參與解救美國所引發(fā)的金融風暴，才采取了較大規(guī)模的經(jīng)濟刺激政策。貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)或許會減緩必要的去杠桿進程。

7抱怨和傷害對方解決不了問題

傅瑩在文章結尾處表示，抱怨和傷害對方解決不了問題，只會讓情況更糟(finger-pointing and hurting each other won’t solve any problems)。

因此，中國應繼續(xù)與美方溝通。

Many in China believe that the root causes of U.S. troubles lie within — and therefore need to be solved by Americans themselves. We can see that the U.S. system requires a major overhaul to overcome deep sociopolitical divisions and economic disparities.

在許多中國人看來，美國的麻煩是美國自己的問題，需要美國人自己解決。我們可以看到，美國社會在分裂和轉型壓力之下面臨嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)，需要全面調整。

But that doesn’t relieve China of the responsibility to engage in dialogue, to find out where the two sides can and can’t agree, and to seek solutions or at least ways to manage persistent disputes.

但同時，中方有責任堅持對話，逐步澄清雙方的一致點和分歧點，以拆解矛盾和解決問題、抑或管理難題的方式，渡過中美關系的險灘激流。

最后，傅瑩引用了一個諺語，說明中國仍然會堅持主張，繼續(xù)保持對話合作。

Such an approach won’t appeal to those who seek confrontation now. But, to borrow a saying, if some folks want to chase butterflies, why should the rest of us go dancing along with them?

當然，那些一心尋求對抗的人或許不會對這個途徑感興趣。但是——讓我借用一個諺語——如果有些人想追逐蝴蝶，其他人為什么要隨之起舞呢?

看完傅瑩的文章，你是不是對中國對待中美貿(mào)易摩擦的態(tài)度以及對中美關系未來走勢有了更清晰的認識了呢?