特朗普大搞單邊主義“底氣”何來？

近期，以不按牌理出牌、特立獨(dú)行的美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普再次發(fā)飆，掀起了一陣新的單邊主義狂潮，舉世為之側(cè)目。

US President Donald Trump, known for his unconventional and sometimes eccentric moves and personality, was making waves again by playing up protectionism and unilateralism, and this shocked the whole world.

在國(guó)際政治領(lǐng)域，特朗普不斷狂熱“退群”，繼執(zhí)政第一年多次“退群”之后，不久前又退出了伊朗核協(xié)議和聯(lián)合國(guó)人權(quán)理事會(huì)。而且，特朗普不會(huì)就此止步。依其“單邊”邏輯，他退出幾乎所有不是由美國(guó)獨(dú)家主導(dǎo)的國(guó)際組織或協(xié)議也是可能的。

In the international political arena, it seems Trump is keen on withdrawing the US from international or multilateral organizations and deals. In the first year of his presidency, he exited several of them, most recently, the comprehensive Iranian nuclear deal and the United Nations Human Rights Council, and still, there seems no sign of an end to it. Considering his logic for unilateralism, no one should be surprised if he decided to exit all international organizations or deals which are not dominated by the US.

在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域，特朗普全面挑起貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，搞得硝煙四起，全球不安。其中與盟國(guó)鋼鋁產(chǎn)品加征關(guān)稅之爭(zhēng)導(dǎo)致最近一次G7峰會(huì)形成六對(duì)一局面，特朗普不但遲到早退，還拒簽聯(lián)合公報(bào)，使G7峰會(huì)歷史上第一次不歡而散。日前，特朗普還威脅要對(duì)歐盟汽車加征高額關(guān)稅，雙方貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端可能升級(jí)。特朗普對(duì)中國(guó)則掄起了最狠的貿(mào)易大棒，不顧WTO規(guī)則和雙方達(dá)成的協(xié)議，繼公布對(duì)華500億美元商品加征懲罰性關(guān)稅清單，又威脅要對(duì)高達(dá)2000億美元的中國(guó)產(chǎn)品加征關(guān)稅。如果他真這樣做，無異于朝著將中美貿(mào)易“歸零”的方向走，將產(chǎn)生災(zāi)難性后果。

On the global economic front, Trump is waging trade wars with many countries, including US allies, and this has given the world jitters. US tariff spat with the European Union over steel and aluminum products led to its conflict with six other G7 members at the Quebec summit. Trump was not only late for the meeting and left early, but also refused to sign the joint statement, leading to a situation in which the G7 summit, for the first time, ended without any statement issued. Trump again threatened to levy additional tariffs on automobiles imported from the EU, and trade tensions will likely escalate. As far as China is concerned, Trump brandished the big stick of trade tariffs, and in disregard of World Trade Organization rules and mutual agreements, threatened to impose additional tariffs on products from China worth $200 billion, after having announced punitive tariffs on Chinese products worth $50 billion. If he really followed through on tariff plans, he would destroy China-US trade.

在地緣戰(zhàn)略領(lǐng)域，特朗普用行動(dòng)落實(shí)將美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略中心從反恐向與大國(guó)地緣競(jìng)逐的轉(zhuǎn)變。在西線，首次在波蘭駐軍，加強(qiáng)了在歐洲尤其是在東歐和波羅的海沿岸國(guó)家的軍事存在與活動(dòng)，對(duì)俄羅斯形成抵近戰(zhàn)略圍堵態(tài)勢(shì)。在東線，加緊實(shí)施“印太戰(zhàn)略”，罕見地強(qiáng)化對(duì)華遏制，尤其在臺(tái)灣問題上，頻踩中國(guó)紅線，冒可能引發(fā)雙方戰(zhàn)略碰撞的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。同時(shí)，推出多年來美國(guó)耗費(fèi)最高的軍事預(yù)算，大力擴(kuò)充軍備，特別著力研發(fā)新式核武器，并宣布推動(dòng)組建“太空部隊(duì)”，明確提出要確保美國(guó)的太空霸主地位，以圖取得對(duì)中俄全面絕對(duì)軍事優(yōu)勢(shì)，為美國(guó)獨(dú)霸世界掃清主要障礙。

On the geopolitical front, Trump's unilateral moves represented a fundamental shift of America's strategic priorities from terrorism to rivalry with major countries. On the Western front, the US, for the first time, stationed troops in Poland, which strengthened its military presence in Europe, particularly Eastern Europe and countries along the Baltic Sea, and is containing Russia. On the Eastern front, the US advocated and implemented the Indo-Pacific strategy, which unprecedentedly strengthened its containment policy against China. On the question of Taiwan, the US repeatedly tested the red line drawn by China, and risked triggering strategic conflicts between the two major powers. The US adopted a big defense budget to expand its military capabilities, in particular, the development of new nuclear weapons, and announced the establishment of its space forces to seek “American dominance in space” so as to establish America's absolute military advantage over China and Russia and to clear hurdles for American hegemony.

在中東，特朗普推行極端親以政策，放任并支持以色列霸道橫行;極端敵視和極限制裁伊朗，強(qiáng)化對(duì)敘利亞的軍事干預(yù)和打擊，全面攪亂了地區(qū)局勢(shì)，使之面臨爆發(fā)更大戰(zhàn)亂的危機(jī)局面。

In the Middle East, Trump adopted a policy that favors Israel by tolerating and supporting Israel's domineering activities, is hostile toward Iran, and calls for greater military interference and strikes in Syria. This fundamentally disrupted the regional situation and heightens the risk of full-blown war.

特朗普敢于同國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)著干，肆無忌憚地大搞單邊主義，有其特有的原因和條件。

Then, let's take a look at why Trump dared to buck the global trend to take reckless, unilateral moves.

第一，錯(cuò)位的指導(dǎo)理念。特朗普施政的核心理念是“美國(guó)優(yōu)先”，聲稱“世界各國(guó)必須為美國(guó)第一讓路”。如此毫不掩飾地表露要將美國(guó)利益凌駕于別國(guó)之上，在美國(guó)歷屆總統(tǒng)中極為罕見。這使人仿佛聽到了老列強(qiáng)對(duì)弱小國(guó)家巧取豪奪時(shí)代的回聲。在這種時(shí)代錯(cuò)位理念指導(dǎo)下，美國(guó)必然要以鄰為壑，損人利己，不擇手段地打壓和削弱競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，以服務(wù)于“美國(guó)再度強(qiáng)大”的戰(zhàn)略需要。他自以為這一套已顯成效，壓制了對(duì)手，增加了美國(guó)霸權(quán)實(shí)力地位，因而樂此不疲甚至變本加厲而為之。

First, his mismatched guiding philosophy. The core philosophy of Trump's administration is “America First”, and he even claimed that no one may obstruct the road of the US. It is unprecedented that a US president directly and openly places American interests above any other countries. This seemed to echo the age of plundering the weak by the old imperial powers. Guided by such outdated principles, it was natural that the Trump administration adopted a beggar-thy-neighbor approach and resorted to every possible means to contain and weaken its competitors so as to serve its strategic goal of “Making America Great Again”. Trump assumed that his tactics to contain competitors and solidify American dominance were working, and therefore doubled down on the capricious and unilateral moves.

第二，利用超強(qiáng)國(guó)力支撐。特朗普有恃無恐地橫行，就是仗著美國(guó)的獨(dú)超強(qiáng)勢(shì)。雖然當(dāng)今世界正經(jīng)歷百年大變局，美國(guó)世界霸主地位在走下坡路，但它仍是全球唯一超級(jí)大國(guó)，綜合國(guó)力尤其是軍事和經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力仍獨(dú)步天下。不少國(guó)家安全上要依靠它，各國(guó)對(duì)外開放發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)都有賴于它。美國(guó)歷屆政府都恃力逞強(qiáng)，堅(jiān)持推行霸道強(qiáng)權(quán)政策。特朗普則更走極端，在國(guó)際關(guān)系中動(dòng)輒使用“極限施壓”、“極限制裁”、“零容忍”、“踩紅線”、“退群”等超高壓手段訛詐威嚇和遏制對(duì)手，迫其作出讓步，以實(shí)現(xiàn)美國(guó)利益最大化。

Second, America's national strength. Trump counted on America's super strength for his reckless moves. Although the world is undergoing a fundamental transformation and the US' global dominance is waning, America is still the world's only superpower, and its overall national strength, particularly economic and military prowess, is still unrivaled. Many countries are relying on the US for security, and more countries depend on the US for economic development. US administration have a record of cashing in on American strength. Trump went even farther by blackmailing, intimidating or containing others through the random use of “extreme pressure”, “extreme sanctions”, “zero tolerance”, “breach of bottom lines,” and “withdrawals” from organizations or deals in international relations. By doing so, Trump intended to coerce others to yield and therefore maximize American interests.

第三，一定的社會(huì)基礎(chǔ)。特朗普是憑反傳統(tǒng)精英政治和“讓美國(guó)再度強(qiáng)大”的口號(hào)，得到在美國(guó)很有聲勢(shì)的保守勢(shì)力和民粹思想較重的中下層群體支持而崛起的。他推行強(qiáng)硬單邊主義政策且在某些方面有所見好，又助長(zhǎng)了美國(guó)政治保守主義和社會(huì)民粹主義，也在一定程度上提升了他的支持率，擴(kuò)大了他的社會(huì)基礎(chǔ)?，F(xiàn)在主導(dǎo)美國(guó)政治的共和黨趨于保守化、民粹化和“特朗普化”，完成了對(duì)特朗普由厭嫌到接納到擁戴的“三級(jí)跳”式轉(zhuǎn)變。這使特朗普更加我行我素。近日他竟宣布要世界各國(guó)在11月4日前完全停止進(jìn)口伊朗石油，“誰要是進(jìn)口伊朗石油，就制裁誰”。這無異對(duì)各國(guó)發(fā)出了“最后通牒”。如此極端單邊主義霸道作為，在戰(zhàn)后國(guó)際關(guān)系史上幾無先例。

Third, some backing from social strata. Trump, shouting slogans against the traditional elite politics, rose to stardom and power with the support from powerful conservatives and the middle and lower social strata. His unilateral policies have helped fuel political conservatism and social populism in the American society, and to some extent, helped lift his popularity and consolidate the social foundation supporting him. The Republicans have undergone a three-phase makeover in their attitudes toward Trump – from dislike, to acceptance, to support. This gave Trump bigger confidence to act this way. He recently ordered all countries to completely stop importing Iranian crude oil from November 4, threatening to impose sanctions on any countries that continue to import Iranian oil after that. This is an ultimatum to all nations. Such extreme unilateral and hegemonic actions are unprecedented in the post-World War II history of international relations.

特朗普大搞單邊主義同他個(gè)人特質(zhì)也有關(guān)系。他從一個(gè)純粹的商人一 躍而成美國(guó)總統(tǒng)，在思想上從極端個(gè)人主義發(fā)展為極端民族利己主義，對(duì)世界大勢(shì)知之甚少，缺乏戰(zhàn)略和長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)視野，好急功近利。極端自私和短視也可以成為一些人“無畏”和一意孤行的“底氣”。

In addition, Trump's reckless unilateral moves could also be attributed to his personality. When Trump, as a businessman, suddenly became president, he had to change himself from an extreme individualist to an extreme nationalist, who knows little about global affairs, lacks strategic and long-term vision and is always eager for quick successes and benefits. Someone so short-sighted and selfish would dare do anything.

特朗普的所作所為已造成嚴(yán)重后果，使得國(guó)際關(guān)系和國(guó)際形勢(shì)出現(xiàn)近些年來少有的緊張動(dòng)蕩，損害了世界和平發(fā)展大局與各國(guó)利益，也使美國(guó)自己受損。他挑戰(zhàn)國(guó)際規(guī)制和國(guó)際秩序，一再出爾反爾自食其言，既使美國(guó)的國(guó)際信譽(yù)和聲望降到歷史谷底，陷于空前孤立，消損了其軟實(shí)力，也損害了其實(shí)際利益。幾乎所有美國(guó)發(fā)動(dòng)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的對(duì)手都進(jìn)行了有力反制，使美國(guó)陷于四面楚歌，其中加拿大對(duì)從美國(guó)進(jìn)口價(jià)值126億美元的商品加征25%的高額關(guān)稅，震動(dòng)了美國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)界。這些應(yīng)能促使特朗普反思。希望他回歸理性，回到同各國(guó)進(jìn)行正常交往與合作的軌道，使美國(guó)擺脫與其他國(guó)家的對(duì)抗共輸，實(shí)現(xiàn)友好相處與互利共贏。

Trump's unilateral actions has had grave consequences. It has brought turmoil to international relations, harmed global peace and development and the interests of all nations, and harmed America itself. He challenged international rules and global order and repeatedly broke his own promises. This caused damage to America's international reputation, threw the US into unprecedented isolation, and undermined US' soft power. All countries have launched or are launching retaliatory measures against the US in the trade war. Canada has decided to impose an additional 25% tariffs on imports from the US worth $12.6 billion, jolting American industries. The retaliatory moves should be enough to serve as a wake-up call for Trump and should be able to force Trump to be rational. Hopefully Trump will soon return to the track of normal exchanges and cooperation with other countries and work together with them for mutual benefits and win-win outcomes.

作者：尹承德，中國(guó)國(guó)際問題研究基金會(huì)研究員