中國(guó)公布第二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，平穩(wěn)背后暗含危機(jī)

SHANGHAI — On the surface, China’s economy is humming along smoothly. It’s the numbers behind the numbers that point to mounting challenges for the world’s other economic superpower.

上海——從表面上來(lái)看，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。是那些公開數(shù)據(jù)背后的數(shù)字表明了這個(gè)世界上的另一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)面臨著越來(lái)越多的挑戰(zhàn)。

The Chinese government on Monday reported that the economy grew 6.7 percent in the three months that ended in June compared with a year ago. That is pretty close to the rate that China has reported quarter after quarter over the past two and a half years. The pace puts it comfortably within its target of achieving growth of around 6.5 percent for the full year.

周一，中國(guó)政府報(bào)告，第二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)6.7%。這個(gè)數(shù)字與過(guò)去兩年半以來(lái)中國(guó)每個(gè)季度公開的增長(zhǎng)速度非常接近。這一增速讓中國(guó)恰巧處在全年增長(zhǎng)速率約6.5%的目標(biāo)中。

Those figures belie warning signs elsewhere. More detailed data show weakening investment in infrastructure and a slowdown in spending by China’s usually ebullient consumers. Private Chinese businesses complain that government efforts to tame debt have made it hard for them to get money. A tiny but growing number of Chinese companies have defaulted on their debt. The currency has lost some of its value. Chinese stocks are in bear market territory.

這些數(shù)據(jù)掩蓋了其他地方的警告跡象。更為詳細(xì)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)投資減弱，中國(guó)通常非?；钴S的消費(fèi)者支出也在放緩。中國(guó)的民營(yíng)企業(yè)抱怨，政府遏制債務(wù)的努力讓它們難以獲得資金。一小部分中國(guó)公司已經(jīng)拖欠了債務(wù)，這個(gè)群體還在增長(zhǎng)。貨幣在貶值。中國(guó)股市目前是熊市。

It may just get tougher from here. The United States has started a trade war with China, and by this autumn it could widen the conflict by hitting another $200 billion in Chinese goods with tariffs. While the Chinese have made progress diversifying their economy, the country still relies heavily on making and exporting toys, clothes, car parts and other goods to the United States and elsewhere.

從現(xiàn)在開始，形勢(shì)可能還會(huì)變得更加艱難。美國(guó)已經(jīng)開始了對(duì)華貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，到今年秋天，美國(guó)可能還會(huì)對(duì)另外價(jià)值2000億美元的中國(guó)商品加征關(guān)稅來(lái)擴(kuò)大沖突。盡管中國(guó)已經(jīng)在經(jīng)濟(jì)多元化方面取得進(jìn)步，但仍嚴(yán)重依賴向美國(guó)和其他地方出口玩具、服裝、汽車零件及其他商品。

China has options, but they have drawbacks. China could put more money into its banking system, which would juice growth. It could also ramp up spending in big projects like highways and airports. But both could undermine its efforts to break the country’s addiction to borrowing.

中國(guó)有選擇，但這些選擇也存在缺陷。中國(guó)可以將更多資金投入銀行系統(tǒng)，這將刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。它還能加速在例如高速公路及機(jī)場(chǎng)這類大型項(xiàng)目中的支出。但這兩項(xiàng)措施都會(huì)削弱中國(guó)抑制對(duì)借貸上癮的努力。

Roads to Prosperity

繁榮之路

China’s spending on bullet trains, highways and bridges has long driven its growth. That spending has kept steel and concrete factories in business and helped provide paychecks to millions of workers.

中國(guó)在高鐵、高速公路和橋梁上的支出長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直驅(qū)動(dòng)著它的增長(zhǎng)。這些支出使鋼鐵和混凝土工廠業(yè)務(wù)不斷，為數(shù)以百萬(wàn)計(jì)的工人提供薪水。

Now that investment has begun to falter.

現(xiàn)在這方面的投資已經(jīng)開始下降。

China’s annual infrastructure investment growth, which has consistently risen about 20 percent in recent years, has slowed to less than half that rate so far this year. That slowdown has coincided with renewed pledges by Beijing to tackle China’s debt problems, which stem from big spending by local governments and big Chinese state-controlled companies.

中國(guó)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資年增長(zhǎng)率近年來(lái)一直保持在20%左右，但今年迄今為止，增幅已降至該速度的一半不到。這種放緩恰逢北京再次承諾解決中國(guó)債務(wù)問(wèn)題的時(shí)候，這些問(wèn)題源于地方政府和中國(guó)大型國(guó)有控股公司的巨額支出。

Signs of a deliberate slowdown were apparent during the second quarter. In China’s sparsely populated Xinjiang region in the far west, local and regional agencies halted or ordered immediate reviews of the viability of many projects.

第二季度出現(xiàn)了明顯放緩的跡象。在中國(guó)人口稀少的西部新疆地區(qū)，地方機(jī)構(gòu)叫停了許多項(xiàng)目，或要求立即審查它們的可行性。

Several other inland provinces, plus coastal Shandong Province, ordered halts or financial reviews of infrastructure projects about the same time. Particularly targeted for suspension have been projects that were being built by so-called public-private partnerships.

與此同時(shí)，其他幾個(gè)內(nèi)陸省份，加上沿海的山東省，也叫停了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目或?qū)ζ溥M(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)審查。這些暫停特別針對(duì)那些通過(guò)所謂公私伙伴關(guān)系建立的項(xiàng)目。

Beijing has encouraged local and regional governments to engage in partnerships with private investors over the last several years as an alternative to heavy borrowing by government agencies. But evidence has mounted that many government agencies promised fixed rates of return to their private sector partners. That has fostered concern that it is essentially more borrowing by government agencies in disguise.

在過(guò)去幾年，北京鼓勵(lì)地方和地區(qū)政府與私人投資者建立伙伴關(guān)系，以替代政府機(jī)構(gòu)大舉借貸。但越來(lái)越多的證據(jù)表明，許多政府機(jī)構(gòu)承諾向其私營(yíng)合作伙伴提供固定回報(bào)率。這引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂，政府機(jī)構(gòu)在偽裝之下借貸更多。

China now appears to be splitting the difference. In a complex edict on Friday, it forbade cities below a certain size from building subways systems, even as it indicated that delayed projects in larger cities could go forward with some limits.

中國(guó)現(xiàn)在似乎正被這種差異撕裂。在周五公布的一項(xiàng)復(fù)雜法令中，它禁止一定規(guī)模以下的城市修建地鐵系統(tǒng)，但又表示，在大一些的城市內(nèi)，遭到延遲的項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)在一些限制之下繼續(xù)進(jìn)行。

Counting on Consumers

指望消費(fèi)者

China has successfully turned to its consumers to pick up the slack during slow times. Retail sales have boomed as an increasingly middle-class China buys more cars, smartphones, appliances, dairy products and a wide variety of other goods.

在經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩時(shí)期，中國(guó)成功令其消費(fèi)者提振不景氣的狀態(tài)。隨著日益壯大的中國(guó)中產(chǎn)階級(jí)購(gòu)買更多汽車、智能手機(jī)、電器、乳制品和各種其他商品，零售業(yè)開始蓬勃發(fā)展。

That boom may be easing. Retail sales growth slowed earlier in the quarter, official data showed, though it picked up a bit in June.

這種繁榮可能正在走下坡路。官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，本季度中國(guó)零售業(yè)增長(zhǎng)放緩，但6月份略有回升。

The slowdown may have a number of underlying reasons, like a decline in consumer lending for cars and a flattening of the market for smartphones. But China’s bean counters may also be missing some vibrant activity. They may not, for example, capture the full scope of online shopping.

這一放緩可能有許多潛在原因，例如汽車消費(fèi)貸款下降和智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)趨于平緩。但中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)者可能也疏忽了一些繁榮的活動(dòng)。比如說(shuō)，他們對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)購(gòu)物的情況可能沒(méi)有全面的了解。

Consumer pessimism over China’s economy may be overstated, according to the China Beige Book, a quarterly survey of big businesses across China. The Beige Book survey suggested that the government’s statisticians might have overestimated retail sales growth in previous years, and are now compensating with low estimates of current sales.

根據(jù)對(duì)中國(guó)大企業(yè)的季度調(diào)查《中國(guó)褐皮書》(China Beige Book)顯示，消費(fèi)者對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的悲觀情緒可能被夸大了。褐皮書調(diào)查顯示，政府統(tǒng)計(jì)人員可能過(guò)高估計(jì)了往年的零售額增長(zhǎng)，現(xiàn)在正在用低估當(dāng)前銷售額來(lái)修正。

“The current weakness in official data is better understood as a lagged reflection of past softness,” the Beige Book’s second-quarter report said in late June. “The retail sector may be seeing a turn higher, with profit and investment growth improving.”

“官方數(shù)據(jù)目前的疲弱，理解為對(duì)過(guò)去疲弱的滯后反映更為妥當(dāng)，”6月底公布的《褐皮書》第二季度報(bào)告表示。“隨著利潤(rùn)和投資增長(zhǎng)的改善，零售業(yè)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)上升。”

What the Numbers Show — and What They Don’t

數(shù)字能表明什么，不能表明什么

In the end, it isn’t clear whether the economic growth figure tells us much about the state of the Chinese economy. In fact, research shows that China has been both overestimating and underestimating growth for years.

最后，目前尚不清楚經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)是否能夠告訴我們中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)狀。事實(shí)上，研究表明，中國(guó)多年來(lái)對(duì)增長(zhǎng)一直既有高估又有低估。

One new analysis suggests that the Chinese economy grew even faster last year than official data showed. The analysis, by professors at Cambridge University in Britain and two Dutch universities, was based on sales and gross margin data from 150 of China’s biggest companies.

一項(xiàng)新的分析表明，去年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度甚至超過(guò)官方數(shù)據(jù)。該分析是英國(guó)劍橋大學(xué)(Cambridge University)和兩所荷蘭大學(xué)的教授根據(jù)中國(guó)150家最大公司的銷售和毛利率數(shù)據(jù)得出的。

How is it possible that China understated its own growth last year? The analysis also indicates that China was over-reporting growth in 2015 and 2016, when China suffered a stock market crash and a disorderly currency devaluation. So some of the growth last year may have been catch-up — and that has now faded.

中國(guó)怎么可能低估自己去年的增長(zhǎng)率?這項(xiàng)分析表明，中國(guó)在2015年和2016年過(guò)高地報(bào)告了自己的增長(zhǎng)率，當(dāng)時(shí)它正遭遇股市崩盤和貨幣的失調(diào)貶值。因此，去年的一些增長(zhǎng)可能是一種彌補(bǔ)，現(xiàn)在它已經(jīng)消退了。