特朗普的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)豪賭：等待北京先讓步

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on almost every Chinese product that comes into the United States intensified the possibility of a damaging trade war, sending stock markets tumbling on Tuesday and drawing a rebuke from retailers, tech companies and manufacturers.

華盛頓——特朗普總統(tǒng)威脅要對(duì)幾乎所有進(jìn)入美國(guó)的中國(guó)商品加征關(guān)稅，加劇了一場(chǎng)破壞性貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的可能性，導(dǎo)致股市周二暴跌，引發(fā)來(lái)自零售商、科技企業(yè)及制造商的指責(zé)。

The Trump administration remained unmoved by those concerns, with a top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, insisting that China has more to lose from a trade fight than the United States. He also declared that Mr. Trump would not allow Beijing to simply buy its way out of an economic dispute by promising to import more American goods.

對(duì)于這些擔(dān)憂，特朗普政府仍然不為所動(dòng)，高級(jí)貿(mào)易顧問(wèn)彼得·納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)堅(jiān)稱中國(guó)在貿(mào)易對(duì)抗中損失會(huì)比美國(guó)大。他還稱，特朗普不會(huì)允許北京通過(guò)承諾進(jìn)口更多美國(guó)商品，輕松擺脫經(jīng)濟(jì)爭(zhēng)端。

“President Trump has given China every chance to change its aggressive behavior,” Mr. Navarro said in a call with reporters on Tuesday. “China does have much more to lose than we do.”

“特朗普總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)給了中國(guó)一切機(jī)會(huì)，讓其改變自己的攻擊性做法，”納瓦羅周二與記者通話時(shí)說(shuō)。“中國(guó)的損失確實(shí)比我們大。”

In threatening tariffs on as much as $450 billion worth of Chinese goods, the administration is betting that Beijing will blink first. It’s a risky gamble by a White House that appears ready to forgo diplomatic negotiations in favor of punishing tariffs that could pinch consumers and companies on both sides of the Pacific.

在對(duì)價(jià)值高達(dá)4500億美元的中國(guó)商品加征關(guān)稅的威脅中，這屆政府賭的是北京會(huì)先作出讓步。這是一場(chǎng)豪賭，白宮看起來(lái)似乎準(zhǔn)備放棄外交談判，轉(zhuǎn)而采取懲罰性關(guān)稅，這可能會(huì)對(duì)太平洋兩岸的消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)造成沖擊。

The approach fulfills a frequent campaign promise by Mr. Trump. But it has spooked companies, investors and markets, which are increasingly worried that the United States has no other strategy to resolve a stalemate with China over its trade practices. Several rounds of trade talks with top Chinese officials in Washington and Beijing produced little agreement, and no additional official negotiations are scheduled, administration officials said.

這一舉措實(shí)現(xiàn)了特朗普一個(gè)常掛在嘴邊的競(jìng)選承諾，但也嚇到了企業(yè)、投資者和市場(chǎng)，他們愈發(fā)擔(dān)憂美國(guó)沒(méi)有其他辦法解決與中國(guó)就其貿(mào)易做法形成的僵局。與中國(guó)高層官員在華盛頓和北京的幾輪談判沒(méi)有達(dá)成什么協(xié)議，美國(guó)政府官員表示，兩國(guó)也沒(méi)有另外再安排官員進(jìn)行談判。

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump suggested he was ready for a fight, saying China would no longer take advantage of the United States.

周二，特朗普暗示他準(zhǔn)備好了要打貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，他說(shuō)中國(guó)不會(huì)再占美國(guó)的便宜了。

“China has been taking out $500 billion a year out of our country and rebuilding China,” the president said during a speech in Washington before the National Federation of Independent Business. “ They’ve taken so much. It’s time folks, it’s time. So we’re going to get smart, and we’re going to do it right.”

“中國(guó)每年從我們國(guó)家拿走5000億美元，去重建中國(guó)，”總統(tǒng)在華盛頓向美國(guó)獨(dú)立企業(yè)聯(lián)盟(National Federation of Independent Business)發(fā)表講話時(shí)說(shuō)。“他們拿走了那么多，是時(shí)候了，伙計(jì)們，是時(shí)候了。所以我們要變聰明起來(lái)，而且我們會(huì)把這件事做好。”

Markets sank on Tuesday in response to Mr. Trump’s announcement late Monday that his administration was preparing to impose even more tariffs than he originally threatened if China continued with its plan to retaliate against the United States.

特朗普在周一晚間宣布，如果中國(guó)繼續(xù)實(shí)施報(bào)復(fù)美國(guó)的計(jì)劃，他的政府準(zhǔn)備征收比之前的威脅要多的關(guān)稅，全球市場(chǎng)周二應(yīng)聲下跌。

Mr. Trump is now threatening to tax nearly the total value of goods that China sent to the United States last year, which was $505.6 billion.

特朗普現(xiàn)在威脅對(duì)中國(guó)去年向美國(guó)全部出口商品的總價(jià)值進(jìn)行征稅，該數(shù)字為5056億美元。

The benchmark Dow Jones index, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite all fell on Tuesday, following stock markets in Frankfurt, London, Paris, Hong Kong, Tokyo and mainland China. Investors moved money into assets that are considered safe havens, like 10-year United States Treasury bonds and the Japanese yen.

作為基準(zhǔn)的道瓊斯指數(shù)、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)及以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)周二下跌，緊隨法蘭克福、倫敦、巴黎、香港及中國(guó)大陸的股市之后。投資者將資金轉(zhuǎn)移至被視為安全的資產(chǎn)，例如10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債和日元。

Shares of Boeing and Caterpillar, which are among America’s leading exporters to China, fell sharply on Tuesday, along with soybean futures. China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans, a key livestock feed, and Beijing has targeted American soybeans for retaliation with its own tariffs.

波音(Boeing)和卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)是美國(guó)主要的對(duì)華出口企業(yè)，周二，兩家公司的股價(jià)連同大豆期貨均大幅下跌。大豆是一種重要的飼料，中國(guó)是世界上最大的大豆進(jìn)口國(guó)，北京已將美國(guó)大豆作為目標(biāo)，征收?qǐng)?bào)復(fù)性關(guān)稅。

Soybean prices dropped more than 7 percent at times during the morning before stabilizing in afternoon trading. Prices are at their lowest level in more than two years, creating a politically delicate issue for Mr. Trump, who has strong support from rural voters in farm states but whose trade policies have angered farmers and lawmakers who represent them.

周二上午，大豆價(jià)格跌幅超過(guò)7%，在下午的交易中趨于回穩(wěn)。大豆價(jià)格目前為兩年多以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)，這給特朗普帶來(lái)了一個(gè)在政治上敏感的問(wèn)題，因?yàn)樗谵r(nóng)業(yè)州的農(nóng)村選民當(dāng)中獲得了強(qiáng)大的支持，但他的貿(mào)易政策已經(jīng)惹怒了農(nóng)民和代表他們的立法者。

Senator Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican, said in a statement, “These aggressive trade actions will continue to have damaging consequences, including an impact on our commodity prices and farm futures, and increasing anxiety among the agricultural and business communities in Iowa.”

艾奧瓦州共和黨參議員約尼·厄恩斯特(Joni Ernst)在一則聲明中表示，“這些激進(jìn)的貿(mào)易行為將繼續(xù)造成具有破壞性的后果，包括對(duì)我們的大宗商品價(jià)格及農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨的沖擊，以及艾奧瓦州農(nóng)業(yè)及商業(yè)社區(qū)的焦慮在不斷增加。”

But Mr. Navarro, who is among Mr. Trump’s most strident anti-China advisers, dismissed those concerns, saying the United States had no choice. He said that the White House had given China numerous opportunities to negotiate and alter policies that have cost Americans millions of jobs, and that the Trump administration was now prepared to impose tariffs on $450 billion of Chinese goods in order to force Beijing to bend.

但特朗普最強(qiáng)硬的反華顧問(wèn)之一納瓦羅駁斥了這些顧慮，稱美國(guó)別無(wú)選擇。他表示，白宮給了中國(guó)許多談判和改變政策的機(jī)會(huì)，那些政策已經(jīng)讓美國(guó)人失去了數(shù)百萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位，特朗普政府現(xiàn)在準(zhǔn)備對(duì)4500億美元的中國(guó)商品征收關(guān)稅，以迫使北京屈服。

“I think that the other side may have underestimated the strong resolve of President Donald J. Trump,” Mr. Navarro said. “If they thought that they could buy us off cheap with a few extra products and allow them to continue to steal our intellectual property and crown jewels, that was a miscalculation. We hope going forward there are no more miscalculations.”

“我認(rèn)為對(duì)方可能低估了唐納德·J·特朗普總統(tǒng)的堅(jiān)定決心，”納瓦羅說(shuō)。“如果他們認(rèn)為可以用一些額外的產(chǎn)品廉價(jià)收買(mǎi)我們，允許他們繼續(xù)竊取我們的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)和皇冠上的珠寶，那他們是做出了誤判。我們希望將來(lái)不再出現(xiàn)誤判。”

Mr. Navarro said a trade clash would hurt China much more than the United States, given that the value of China’s exports to the United States was nearly four times the value of what the United States exports to China.

納瓦羅表示，由于中國(guó)對(duì)美出口價(jià)值幾乎是美國(guó)對(duì)華出口價(jià)值的四倍，所以，貿(mào)易沖突對(duì)中國(guó)的傷害要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于對(duì)美國(guó)的傷害。

For weeks, the United States and China had appeared close to a deal that would have forestalled tariffs. Top advisers like Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, had advocated a deal that could avoid the devastating effects of a trade war, and spent hours in negotiations with Chinese officials.

數(shù)周以來(lái)，美中似乎已接近達(dá)成一項(xiàng)避免關(guān)稅的協(xié)議。美國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)史蒂文·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)和商務(wù)部長(zhǎng)威爾伯·羅斯(Wilbur Ross)等高級(jí)顧問(wèn)曾主張達(dá)成一項(xiàng)能避免貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)破壞性影響的協(xié)議，他們與中國(guó)官員進(jìn)行了數(shù)小時(shí)的談判。

But after the Chinese refused to commit to a target for reducing their trade surplus with the United States or limit industrial subsidies, Mr. Trump rejected those proposals. And his resolve only hardened after lawmakers, including Democrats, criticized him as being weak on China when he agreed to help ease penalties on ZTE, a Chinese telecommunications company accused of violating American sanctions.

但在中國(guó)拒絕承諾減少對(duì)美貿(mào)易順差或限制工業(yè)補(bǔ)貼后，特朗普拒絕了這些提議。在他同意幫助減輕對(duì)中興通訊的處罰后，包括民主黨在內(nèi)的議員批評(píng)他在中國(guó)問(wèn)題上太軟弱，所以他更堅(jiān)定了決心。

That decision has triggered a huge fight between the White House and Congress. On Monday, the Senate passed legislation that would reinstate penalties on ZTE and rescind a Commerce Department deal that allowed the company to stay in business in exchange for paying a large fine and agreeing to a series of management and compliance changes. The White House has vowed to remove that provision before the bill becomes final, and Mr. Trump is expected to meet with lawmakers on Wednesday to discuss the fate of ZTE.

減輕處罰中興的決定引發(fā)了白宮和國(guó)會(huì)之間的劇烈斗爭(zhēng)。周一，參議院通過(guò)一項(xiàng)法案，將恢復(fù)對(duì)中興通訊的處罰，撤銷商務(wù)部的一項(xiàng)交易——該交易允許中興通訊繼續(xù)經(jīng)營(yíng)，中興則需要支付巨額罰款，并同意進(jìn)行一系列管理和合規(guī)改革。白宮誓言要在該法案最終確定前取消該條款，預(yù)計(jì)特朗普將于周三與議員們會(huì)面，討論中興通訊的命運(yùn)。

The president’s approach has irritated some of Mr. Trump’s own advisers, including Mr. Mnuchin, who has been frustrated by the process of the China talks, according to an official familiar with his thinking. Mr. Mnuchin has tried to explain in recent meetings how China is likely to respond to America’s threats and the impact that retaliation could have on financial markets and the economy.

據(jù)一位知情官員稱，特朗普的做法激怒了他自己的一些顧問(wèn)，包括馬努欽，他對(duì)與中國(guó)談判的進(jìn)程感到沮喪。馬努欽在最近的一些會(huì)議上試圖闡明，中國(guó)可能會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)的威脅作何反應(yīng)，以及中國(guó)的報(bào)復(fù)可能會(huì)對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生什么影響。

He has also been trying to persuade Mr. Trump not to proceed with harsh restrictions on Chinese investment that would limit China’s ability to do business in the United States. The Treasury Department is expected to release a proposal this month. Mr. Mnuchin, who is leading the effort, has been trying to convincer Mr. Trump that the restrictions are unnecessary, given pending legislation that would expand national security reviews performed by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.

他還一直試圖說(shuō)服特朗普不要繼續(xù)對(duì)中國(guó)投資實(shí)施嚴(yán)厲限制，這些限制會(huì)影響中國(guó)在美國(guó)做生意的能力。預(yù)計(jì)財(cái)政部本月將公布一項(xiàng)提案。主導(dǎo)這項(xiàng)努力的馬努欽一直在試圖讓特朗普明白，沒(méi)有必要實(shí)施這些限制，因?yàn)榧磳⑦M(jìn)行的立法將擴(kuò)大外國(guó)在美投資委員會(huì)(Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States)的國(guó)家安全審查權(quán)限。

In late May, Mr. Mnuchin helped orchestrate a meeting between the president, top White House advisers and Republican lawmakers, where the Treasury secretary asked lawmakers to help make the case that legislation would be a more targeted way to police Chinese investment, three people with knowledge of the meeting said. But Mr. Navarro and Robert E. Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, who were also in the meeting, objected to that approach. The president ultimately overruled Mr. Mnuchin, saying that he supported the congressional legislation but that it alone wasn’t enough.

據(jù)三位知情人士稱，5月底，馬努欽協(xié)助組織了一場(chǎng)由特朗普、白宮高級(jí)顧問(wèn)和共和黨議員參與的會(huì)議。在會(huì)上，財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)請(qǐng)議員們幫助論述該議案會(huì)是監(jiān)管中國(guó)投資的更具針對(duì)性的方式。但納瓦羅和美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表羅伯特·E·萊特希澤(Robert E. Lighthizer)也參加了那次會(huì)議，他們反對(duì)那種做法。特朗普最終否定了馬努欽的主張，稱他支持國(guó)會(huì)的這項(xiàng)立法，但僅此還不夠。

The decision to proceed with tariffs is a victory for hard-liners in the administration, like Mr. Navarro and Mr. Lighthizer. They had argued that the United States should not back down from trying to force China to make more fundamental changes to its economy, even if such measures would cause short-term pain for American businesses and consumers.

對(duì)納瓦羅和萊特希澤等政府中的強(qiáng)硬派來(lái)說(shuō)，繼續(xù)征收關(guān)稅的決定是一個(gè)勝利。他們認(rèn)為，美國(guó)不應(yīng)該放棄嘗試逼迫中國(guó)對(duì)其經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行更徹底的改革，即使這些措施會(huì)在短期內(nèi)給美國(guó)企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者帶來(lái)痛苦。

On Tuesday, Mr. Navarro minimized the divisions between administration officials, saying the United States’ negotiating process had not wavered and was “linear.” He said the idea of dropping the trade case in exchange for purchases — something the Chinese had offered the Americans in negotiations — had always been a “nonstarter.”

周二，納瓦羅將政府官員之間的分歧降到最小，稱美國(guó)的談判進(jìn)程沒(méi)有動(dòng)搖，是“線性”的。他說(shuō)，撤銷貿(mào)易訴訟以換取采購(gòu)的想法——這是中國(guó)在談判中向美國(guó)提出的——向來(lái)“行不通”。

In his remarks Tuesday morning, Mr. Navarro took aim at China’s internal plan to develop cutting-edge industries like robotics, new-energy vehicles, advanced rail and shipping, and aerospace. He said the country could not be allowed to dominate technologies that would be an important source of jobs and growth for the United States in decades to come.

在周二上午的講話中，納瓦羅把目標(biāo)指向了中國(guó)發(fā)展機(jī)器人、新能源汽車、先進(jìn)的鐵路和航運(yùn)以及航空航天等尖端行業(yè)的內(nèi)部計(jì)劃。他說(shuō)，不能讓中國(guó)主導(dǎo)這些技術(shù)，它們將是美國(guó)未來(lái)幾十年重要的就業(yè)和增長(zhǎng)來(lái)源。

China has engaged in unfair practices, including cybertheft and “information harvesting,” to obtain technological secrets from the United States that would allow China to pull ahead in these industries, Mr. Navarro said.

納瓦羅說(shuō)，為了從美國(guó)獲取能夠讓自己在這些行業(yè)領(lǐng)先的技術(shù)機(jī)密，中國(guó)采取了不公平的做法，包括網(wǎng)絡(luò)盜竊和“信息收集”。

“It is important to note here that the actions President Trump has taken are purely defensive in nature,” he said.

“務(wù)必要注意的是，特朗普總統(tǒng)采取的行動(dòng)從本質(zhì)上來(lái)說(shuō)純粹是防御性的，”他說(shuō)。

There is broad agreement that China has engaged in unfair trade practices that have hurt American companies. But Mr. Trump’s resort to tariffs as his primary negotiating tool has prompted swift condemnation from retail, technology and manufacturing companies, who said the approach could hurt American consumers and companies more than the White House realized.

在中國(guó)采取了不公平的貿(mào)易做法，傷害了美國(guó)公司這一點(diǎn)上，各方達(dá)成了廣泛的共識(shí)。但特朗普訴諸關(guān)稅，將其作為主要談判工具的做法立刻遭到了零售、科技和制造業(yè)企業(yè)的譴責(zé)。它們說(shuō)，這種做法給美國(guó)消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)造成的傷害，可能會(huì)超出白宮的想象。

Jose Castaneda, spokesman for the Information Technology Industry Council, called the escalation of trade tensions with China “irresponsible and counterproductive.”

信息技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)(Information Technology Industry Council)的發(fā)言人喬斯·卡斯塔涅達(dá)(Jose Castaneda)說(shuō)，與中國(guó)貿(mào)易緊張關(guān)系升級(jí)是“不負(fù)責(zé)任和適得其反的”。

“We appreciate President Trump’s efforts to protect the United States’ ‘crown jewels,’ but tariffs are simply the wrong way to do it,” he said. “The White House needs to work with our allies to create lasting change with China. Too many jobs and livelihoods are at stake to get this wrong.”

“我們感謝特朗普總統(tǒng)為保護(hù)美國(guó)‘王冠上的寶石’所做的努力，但征收關(guān)稅是完全錯(cuò)誤的做法，”他說(shuō)。“白宮需和我們的盟友合作，同中國(guó)一起創(chuàng)造持久的變化。一旦出錯(cuò)，會(huì)有太多的工作崗位和生計(jì)面臨危險(xiǎn)。”

Matt Priest, the president of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, said it was difficult to see how tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods wouldn’t “negatively impact all Americans of every walk of life.”

美國(guó)鞋類分銷商和零售商協(xié)會(huì)(Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America)會(huì)長(zhǎng)馬特·普里斯特(Matt Priest)說(shuō)，很難認(rèn)為對(duì)另外2000億美元的中國(guó)商品征收關(guān)稅不會(huì)“對(duì)各行各業(yè)的美國(guó)民眾產(chǎn)生不利影響”。

“The president claimed that trade wars are easy to win, but what our industry has always known is coming true: Trade wars are costly, unnecessary and do harm to the American economy,” he said.

“總統(tǒng)聲稱貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)容易打贏，但我們這個(gè)行業(yè)向來(lái)都了解的一點(diǎn)正在成為現(xiàn)實(shí)：貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)代價(jià)高昂，沒(méi)有必要，并且會(huì)傷害美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，”他說(shuō)。