到朝鮮做生意？“特金會(huì)”讓大膽的投資者看到商機(jī)

HONG KONG — North Korea is one of the world’s most isolated countries. It is ruled by an unpredictable dictator with his finger on the nuclear button. So, who’s ready to do business there?

香港——朝鮮是世界上最孤立的國(guó)家之一。統(tǒng)治它的人是一個(gè)難以捉摸、手指放在核按鈕上的獨(dú)裁者。所以問(wèn)題就來(lái)了，有人準(zhǔn)備在那里做生意嗎?

Well, basically nobody.

可以說(shuō)，基本沒(méi)有。

But leading up to President Trump’s meeting in Singapore with Kim Jong-un, which concluded on Tuesday with a deal to keep talking, some intrepid businesses and investors have begun considering the possibilities. What happens if North Korea opens its economy, even just a little, giving global businesses a shot as East Asia’s last untapped growth market?

但是，在特朗普總統(tǒng)與金正恩本周二在新加坡會(huì)晤、達(dá)成了繼續(xù)談下去的協(xié)議之前，一些勇敢的企業(yè)和投資者已經(jīng)開(kāi)始在考慮這種可能性了。如果朝鮮開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)，哪怕只是一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)，讓全球企業(yè)有機(jī)會(huì)在東亞最后一個(gè)蘊(yùn)藏著增長(zhǎng)潛力的市場(chǎng)試手的話，會(huì)發(fā)生什么呢?

Mr. Trump on Tuesday dangled visions of what North Korea could win if it abandoned its nuclear weapons and changed its ways.

特朗普周二提了，如果朝鮮放棄核武器、改弦更張，它會(huì)得到什么的愿景。

“As an example, they have great beaches,” he said at his news conference after the summit meeting. “You see that whenever they’re exploding their cannons into the ocean. I said, ‘Boy, look at that view. Wouldn’t that make a great condo?’”

“舉個(gè)例子，他們有很棒的海灘，”他在峰會(huì)后的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說(shuō)。“他們每次向大海開(kāi)炮時(shí)，你們都能看見(jiàn)。我說(shuō)，‘哇，那景色真不錯(cuò)。是個(gè)蓋很棒的可出售公寓大樓的地方，不是嗎?’”

Let’s back up. The chances are slim — very, very slim — to none that North Korea would open up like that in the foreseeable future. Still, some businesses are setting up internal task forces to start drawing up plans, according to lawyers and advisers who specialize in North Korea. Shares of companies that could profit are starting to rise, in what one analyst called the “Rocket Man rally.”

先退一步說(shuō)。在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)，朝鮮會(huì)開(kāi)放到那種程度的可能性微乎其微。盡管如此，一些企業(yè)正在內(nèi)部組建特別工作組，開(kāi)始起草計(jì)劃，據(jù)律師和專門(mén)研究朝鮮問(wèn)題的顧問(wèn)說(shuō)。有望從朝鮮獲利的公司的股價(jià)在開(kāi)始上漲，一位分析人士稱這種上漲為“火箭人反彈”。

A few big companies have tentatively reached out to contacts in North Korea, said Wook Yoo, a partner at Bae, Kim & Lee, a South Korean law firm. Others have inquired about where to begin. “We have received calls from several companies which are quite interested in preparing future business with North Korea,” Mr. Yoo said.

幾家大公司已與朝鮮的聯(lián)系人進(jìn)行試探性聯(lián)系，韓國(guó)太平洋律師事務(wù)所的合伙人柳旭(Wook Yoo)說(shuō)。其他公司也已在詢問(wèn)從何處下手。“我們接到了幾家公司的電話，它們非常有興趣為將來(lái)與朝鮮做生意做準(zhǔn)備，”柳旭說(shuō)。

It is not clear how many companies are looking at the idea, or which ones. Company officials are loath to discuss their plans publicly. Initial feelers into North Korea risk violating United States and international sanctions, which are not likely to ease anytime soon. Those restrictions have become so tight that investors have stopped early efforts to crack the market.

目前尚不清楚有多少公司在考慮這個(gè)想法，也不清楚正在這樣考慮的公司的名字。公司官員不愿公開(kāi)討論他們的計(jì)劃。進(jìn)入朝鮮的初步試探有違反美國(guó)和國(guó)際制裁的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這些制裁不太可能很快得到緩解。制裁措施已經(jīng)變得如此之嚴(yán)格，以至于投資者已停止了進(jìn)入朝鮮市場(chǎng)的早期努力。

Even if progress were made, the world would still be dealing with a leader who diverted millions of dollars from his country’s economy to build powerful weapons, leading to food shortages for his people.

即使談判取得進(jìn)展，世界需要與之打交道的仍是這樣一位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人：他從本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中抽出數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元來(lái)制造強(qiáng)大的武器，讓本國(guó)人民吃不飽飯。

Nevertheless, some in the business world find the idea intriguing. The North has a relatively young population and an underground entrepreneurial bent. It has a large amount of resources like rare earths and iron ore. And South Korea has offered the North a modernization plan that includes building railways and power plants.

盡管如此，一些商界人士還是覺(jué)得與朝鮮做生意的想法很迷人。朝鮮的人口相對(duì)年輕，有地下創(chuàng)業(yè)傾向。朝鮮有鐵礦石和稀土等豐富的自然資源。韓國(guó)已向朝鮮提供了一個(gè)包括修建鐵路和發(fā)電廠在內(nèi)的現(xiàn)代化計(jì)劃。

“This is where the money is to be made,” said Justin Hastings, an associate professor at the University of Sydney who wrote a book about North Korea’s economy. That is, “if you can figure out how not to get expropriated,” Mr. Hastings added, citing Pyongyang’s history of seizing assets.

“這就是能賺錢(qián)的地方，”賈斯汀·哈斯廷斯(Justin Hastings)說(shuō)，他是悉尼大學(xué)(University of Sydney)的副教授，寫(xiě)過(guò)一本有關(guān)朝鮮經(jīng)濟(jì)的書(shū)。“如果你能想出不被沒(méi)收的辦法的話，”哈斯廷斯補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，他指的是了平壤政府扣押資產(chǎn)的歷史。

A sudden change in the North’s business climate also would not be unprecedented: Earlier this decade, once-closed Myanmar rapidly opened for business, attracting big companies from around the world.

朝鮮的商業(yè)環(huán)境突然改變也不是世界上沒(méi)發(fā)生過(guò)的：在2010年代初，一度封閉的緬甸很快就開(kāi)放了商業(yè)，吸引了來(lái)自世界各地的大公司。

“They want American investment coming to North Korea,” Chung-in Moon, a senior South Korean presidential adviser, said in April on CNN, adding that, “Yes, they want Trump Tower. They want McDonald’s and all these kinds of things.”

“他們希望美國(guó)來(lái)朝鮮投資，”韓國(guó)總統(tǒng)顧問(wèn)文正仁(Chung-in Moon)今年4月在美國(guó)有線電視新聞網(wǎng)(CNN)上說(shuō)，他還說(shuō)，“是的，他們想要特朗普大廈(Trump Tower)。他們想要麥當(dāng)勞和所有的這類(lèi)東西。”

Nearly three-quarters of South Korean businesses would be willing to make an investment in North Korea once sanctions were lifted, according to a survey of 167 companies published last week by the Maeil Business Newspaper in South Korea.

韓國(guó)商業(yè)報(bào)紙《每日經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞》上周對(duì)167家公司進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，一旦解除制裁，近四分之三的韓國(guó)企業(yè)會(huì)愿意在朝鮮投資。

When it comes to business, North Korea is not for the faint of heart. Its economy is half the size of South Korea’s sixth-biggest city. For businesses, electricity and water would have to be secured. Mr. Yoo, the lawyer, said that North Korea lacked a basic way for foreign companies to resolve business disputes.

提到經(jīng)商，朝鮮可不是膽怯者去的地方。朝鮮的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模只有韓國(guó)第六大城市的一半。對(duì)企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，需要先讓電力和水的供應(yīng)得到保障。律師柳旭說(shuō)，朝鮮缺乏讓外國(guó)公司解決商業(yè)糾紛的基本途徑。

Of the few Chinese, Japanese and South Korean companies that have ventured into the North, many have seen their assets confiscated.

在少數(shù)敢去朝鮮做生意的中國(guó)、日本和韓國(guó)公司中，好幾家都有資產(chǎn)被沒(méi)收的經(jīng)歷。

Xiyang Group, a Chinese mining company, finished building its first mine there in 2012 only to see North Korea kick its employees out of the country and take over. Xiyang said it lost about $45 million from the project.

2012年，中國(guó)礦業(yè)公司西陽(yáng)集團(tuán)在朝鮮完成了其第一個(gè)礦山建設(shè)項(xiàng)目，結(jié)果朝鮮卻將公司員工趕走，接管了該公司的業(yè)務(wù)。西陽(yáng)集團(tuán)說(shuō)，在那個(gè)項(xiàng)目上損失了約4500萬(wàn)美元。

The Kaesong Industrial Park, a manufacturing hub built by Hyundai on the North Korean side of the border more than a decade ago, was shut down twice before the North froze the South Korean assets two years ago. The 123 firms operating in the complex later said they lost a combined $1.3 billion.

開(kāi)城工業(yè)園是現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)(Hyundai)十多年前在朝韓邊境朝鮮一邊建立的一個(gè)制造中心，曾兩度關(guān)閉，兩年前，朝鮮凍結(jié)了那里的韓國(guó)資產(chǎn)。在工業(yè)園有業(yè)務(wù)的123家公司后來(lái)表示，它們總共損失了13億美元。

In addition, the North’s work force lacks basic skills, say those who have visited the country.

再就是，據(jù)去過(guò)朝鮮的人說(shuō)，那里的勞動(dòng)力缺乏基本技能。

“The biggest gap that we are trying to plug — and it’s really, really big — is how isolated North Korea has been,” said Geoffrey See, the founder of Choson Exchange, a nonprofit that organizes workshops with North Korean students, academics and scientists. “If you look at other countries that open up, they already have diaspora to bring back know-how.”

“我們正在試圖彌補(bǔ)的最大空缺——那是一個(gè)非常、非常大的空缺——是朝鮮長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)被孤立的程度，”施國(guó)興(Geoffrey See)說(shuō)，他是為朝鮮的學(xué)生、學(xué)者和科學(xué)家組織研討會(huì)的非營(yíng)利機(jī)構(gòu)朝鮮交流中心(Choson Exchange)的創(chuàng)始人。“如果你看一下其他敞開(kāi)國(guó)門(mén)的國(guó)家，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們已經(jīng)有了能把技術(shù)帶回來(lái)的在海外居住的群體。”

Simply getting an answer can be hard, Mr. See said. He recalled sending an email a decade ago to an official in Pyongyang about opening up Choson Exchange. It took two months to get a response.

施國(guó)興說(shuō)，僅僅是得到一個(gè)答復(fù)都很難。他回憶起十年前給平壤的一位官員發(fā)關(guān)于成立朝鮮交流中心的電子郵件的事情。等了兩個(gè)月才得到答復(fù)。

Then there is North Korea’s domestic companies and their deep connections with the government.

還有就是朝鮮國(guó)內(nèi)公司的問(wèn)題，以及它們與政府的深厚關(guān)系。

“There are vested interests in North Korea,” said Christopher Green, a researcher at Universiteit Leiden in the Netherlands who has interviewed North Korean defectors. “The economy is underdeveloped and there are people who are already making money there. The last thing a North Korea firm would like is for a South Korean firm like Samsung to come in.”

“朝鮮有既得利益群體，”荷蘭萊頓大學(xué)(Universiteit Leiden)的研究員克里斯托弗·格林(Christopher Green)說(shuō)。“雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)不發(fā)達(dá)，但有些人已經(jīng)在那里賺錢(qián)了。朝鮮企業(yè)最不愿意看到的就是讓像三星這樣的韓國(guó)公司進(jìn)來(lái)。”

Nevertheless, some see promise.

盡管如此，一些人還是看到了希望。

Shares in South Korean companies like Posco, the South Korean steel maker; SK Innovation, an oil refining company; and Korea Aerospace — firms that could profit from an economically open North Korea — have rallied over the past week. Ordinary mom-and-pop investors hopeful of a deal are contributing, said Paul Choi, head of Korea research at CLSA, the brokerage firm.

一些韓國(guó)公司的股票在過(guò)去一周里已經(jīng)有所回升，包括鋼鐵企業(yè)浦項(xiàng)制鐵(Posco)、煉油企業(yè)SK Innovation，以及韓國(guó)航空航天公司等，它們可能會(huì)從經(jīng)濟(jì)上開(kāi)放的朝鮮獲利。對(duì)達(dá)成協(xié)議滿懷希望的普通投資者對(duì)股票的回升有所貢獻(xiàn)，經(jīng)紀(jì)公司里昂證券(CLSA)的韓國(guó)研究主管保羅·崔(Paul Choi)說(shuō)。

In Europe, one entrepreneur who has done business in North Korea since the late 1990s was watching the summit meeting closely. “I’m cautiously optimistic,” said Paul Tjia, the founder of GPI Consultancy, which advises companies on offshoring their information technology operations.

在歐洲，一位自上世紀(jì)90年代末以來(lái)就開(kāi)始在朝鮮做生意的企業(yè)家正在密切關(guān)注著此次峰會(huì)。“我持謹(jǐn)慎樂(lè)觀態(tài)度，”荷蘭的GPI咨詢公司(GPI Consultancy)的創(chuàng)始人保羅·特賈(Paul Tjia)說(shuō)。

“We are receiving more questions about North Korea from European companies,” Mr. Tjia said. He said he was planning an “information and communications technology mission” to North Korea in September in order to introduce European companies to the possibilities for outsourcing their basic technology and software development needs to North Korea.

“我們正在從歐洲公司那里接到更多的有關(guān)朝鮮的問(wèn)題，”特賈說(shuō)。他表示，他已在計(jì)劃今年9月去朝鮮進(jìn)行“信息和通信技術(shù)考察”，目的是給歐洲公司介紹將它們的基礎(chǔ)技術(shù)和軟件開(kāi)發(fā)需求外包給朝鮮的可能性。

Hyundai has future plans for the Kaesong complex that include a zone for technology that could accommodate 2,000 companies and 600,000 employees, according to its website. It would even have a golf course.

據(jù)公司網(wǎng)站顯示，現(xiàn)代汽車(chē)公司對(duì)開(kāi)城工業(yè)園的未來(lái)計(jì)劃包括了一個(gè)可容納2000家公司和60萬(wàn)名員工的技術(shù)園區(qū)。園區(qū)里甚至還會(huì)有一個(gè)高爾夫球場(chǎng)。

And despite North Koreans’ lack of basic skills, the country has a class of would-be entrepreneurs who are eager to learn, said Mr. See of the Choson Exchange program, and others.

朝鮮交流中心的施國(guó)興說(shuō)，雖然朝鮮人缺乏基本的技能，但該國(guó)有一群渴望學(xué)習(xí)的潛在企業(yè)家。

Ian Collins, a consultant who traveled to the western North Korean city of Pyongsong in November through Choson Exchange, said one of the 80 participants in his workshop told him that some women had started a business renting out their bedrooms on an hourly basis to amorous young couples.

去年11月在朝鮮交流中心的安排下訪問(wèn)了朝鮮西部城市平城的咨詢師伊恩·柯林斯說(shuō)，參加他的研討會(huì)的80人中有人告訴他，一些女性已經(jīng)在用自己的臥室創(chuàng)業(yè)，把臥室按小時(shí)收費(fèi)租給相戀的年輕人。

While there, Mr. Collins visited an “app store” — a place that sells smartphone apps, like people have in the rest of the world. But this one was a physical, bricks-and-mortar store in which employees loaded people’s phones with apps.

柯林斯在那里還參觀了一個(gè)“應(yīng)用商店”，那是一個(gè)銷(xiāo)售智能手機(jī)應(yīng)用的地方，就像世界上其他地方的人買(mǎi)的軟件一樣。但這是一家實(shí)實(shí)在在的實(shí)體店，員工們?cè)诘昀锝o人們的手機(jī)裝上應(yīng)用軟件。

“They have had to come up with side businesses because the state can’t look after them anymore and the gray economy is huge there,” he said.

“他們不得不出來(lái)干些副業(yè)，因?yàn)檎辉俟芩麄兞?，那里的灰色?jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模巨大，”他說(shuō)。

And, like budding entrepreneurs in any country, many are dreaming up business plans, Mr. Collins said.

就像任何國(guó)家嶄露頭角的企業(yè)家那樣，許多人都在構(gòu)思商業(yè)計(jì)劃，柯林斯說(shuō)。

“One of the questions I got asked was, ‘What innovation is going to provide the most amount of profit?’”

“人們問(wèn)我的問(wèn)題之一是，‘什么創(chuàng)新能帶來(lái)最大的利潤(rùn)?’”