為何金正恩要“挽救”美朝峰會？

SEOUL, South Korea — Ever since Kim Jong-un took over as the young, untested ruler of North Korea seven years ago, he has promised his country a future free from deprivation.

韓國首爾——早在七年前接任朝鮮領導人之時，少不經(jīng)事的金正恩(Kim Jong-un)便向自己的國家承諾了一個不再受窮的未來。

In his first speech as leader, he vowed that North Koreans, millions of whom starved during a famine in the 1990s, would never again have to tighten their belts. Last year, he apologized to the nation for failing to live up to that pledge, expressing how “anxious and remorseful” it made him.

在成為領導人后發(fā)表的第一次講話中，他發(fā)誓說，朝鮮人將永遠不用再勒緊褲帶——1990年代饑荒期間有數(shù)百萬朝鮮人餓死。去年，他因未能兌現(xiàn)這一諾言而向國人道歉，并表示自己非常“焦慮和懊悔”。

Then, this year, he proclaimed a new shift to North Korea’s 25 million people: Now that the nation possessed a nuclear arsenal, it could change gears and start building a prosperous economy, after years of international sanctions.

然后到了今年，他向2500萬朝鮮人宣布了一項新的轉(zhuǎn)變：現(xiàn)在朝鮮已經(jīng)有了核武庫，那么，經(jīng)過多年國際制裁，它可能會調(diào)整自己，開始建設繁榮的經(jīng)濟。

So when President Trump on Thursday abruptly canceled their much anticipated summit meeting on June 12, the North Korean response was remarkably diplomatic and cordial, holding open the hope that the meeting could still take place, after all.

因此，周四特朗普總統(tǒng)突然取消備受期待的6月12日峰會時，朝鮮的反應非常得體而友好，并表示希望這次會議依然能夠舉行。

In a sign of just how important the summit is to Mr. Kim, he held an unexpected meeting on Saturday with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, where he expressed a “fixed will” to try to salvage it.

為表明這次首腦會議對金正恩來說有多么重要，他在周六與韓國總統(tǒng)文在寅(Moon Jae-in)舉行了一次出人意料的會議，會上他表達了“堅定的愿望”，希望挽救與特朗普的首腦會議。

The measured response to the cancellation, and the extraordinary diplomatic scramble that followed, was a strong reminder, analysts said, that Mr. Kim not only wants a diplomatic deal with the United States. He may need one.

分析人士表示，朝鮮對取消會議做出的慎重反應，以及隨后非同尋常的外交緊急行動，是一種強烈的提醒——金正恩不只是希望與美國達成外交協(xié)議。他是需要這樣一個協(xié)議。

“North Korea can still survive under sanctions, especially if China helps it,” said Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “But as long as sanctions are there, Kim Jong-un can never deliver the kind of rapid economic growth he has promised for his people.”

“朝鮮在制裁下依然可以生存下去，特別是如果有中國的幫助，” 首爾的峨山政策研究院(Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul)高級研究員申范澈(Shin Beom-chul)表示。“但是只要有制裁，金正恩就永遠無法實現(xiàn)他向人民承諾的那種快速經(jīng)濟增長。”

Mr. Kim’s stated desire to continue engaging with Mr. Trump — even after such a high-profile snub — does not necessarily mean the North Korean leader is willing to renounce his nuclear arsenal, the primary American demand.

即使是遭受了這樣公然的怠慢，金正恩依然表示希望繼續(xù)與特朗普接觸，但這并不一定意味著這位朝鮮領導人愿意接受美國的主要條件，即放棄自己的核武庫。

No matter how painful sanctions may be, analysts say, Mr. Kim would be unwilling to give up his nuclear weapons unless an accord left him feeling completely safe without them. The security of his family-run regime is a nonnegotiable priority.

分析人士認為，無論制裁有多么艱苦，金正恩都是不愿放棄核武器的，除非達成一項協(xié)議，讓他可以在沒有核武器的情況下也感到充分的安全。確保金氏家族的執(zhí)政則是不可談判的優(yōu)先事項。

North Korea has emphasized that it wants security guarantees and will not trade its nuclear arsenal for economic benefits alone. It has also rejected assertions that it has been pressured into talks because of the pain of sanctions, adding that it does not expect help from the United States in pursuing economic development.

朝鮮強調(diào)它希望獲得安全保證，并不會僅僅為了經(jīng)濟利益而交換其核武庫。它還否認自己是由于制裁的痛苦而被迫進行會談，并說它不希望從美國那里獲得經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方面的幫助。

Indeed, the North Korean economy has been growing as much as 1 to 5 percent annually under Mr. Kim’s rule, because of a limited embrace of market forces by his government and, until late last year, loopholes in the multiple rounds of sanctions adopted by the United Nations Security Council.

事實上，在金正恩的統(tǒng)治下，由于政府引入了有限的市場機制，加之去年年底之前，聯(lián)合國安理會在多輪制裁中所采取方案的漏洞，朝鮮經(jīng)濟的年增長率達到1%至5%。

Still, his apparent willingness to continue diplomatic efforts does suggest that Mr. Kim, 34, may be under pressure to satisfy rising expectations in North Korea for economic gains and shake off the painful grip of sanctions.

盡管如此，金正恩仍希望繼續(xù)進行外交努力，這樣的意愿確實表明，隨著朝鮮國內(nèi)越來越渴望經(jīng)濟增長和擺脫痛苦制裁，這位34歲的領導人可能正面臨壓力。

While largely depicted as a nuclear provocateur in the outside world, Mr. Kim is determined to be the face of a modern and more open North Korea at home. He has erected new buildings and repainted old ones in Pyongyang, the capital, attended a concert by a South Korean girl band and let a state orchestra play American pop music.

盡管金正恩在外部世界大多被描繪為一個持核挑釁的人物，但在國內(nèi)，他決心成為朝鮮現(xiàn)代化和擴大開放的代言人。他在首都平壤建起了新的大樓，重新粉刷了舊的建筑，出席了一場韓國女團的音樂會，還讓國家樂團演奏了美國流行音樂。

Mr. Kim has also sent party officials to China to learn its economic policies, and has even admitted to other failures during his supposedly faultless leadership, like a botched satellite launch in 2012. When he met with South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, last month and invited him to Pyongyang, he asked Mr. Moon to fly there because North Korea’s roads and trains were in such “embarrassing” condition.

金正恩還派出了黨內(nèi)官員前往中國學習中國的經(jīng)濟政策，甚至還承認，在他本應完美無瑕的領導履歷中還有一些疏漏，比如2012年的衛(wèi)星發(fā)射失敗。當他上個月與韓國總統(tǒng)文在寅舉行會晤并邀請他來平壤時，他請文在寅乘飛機前往，因為朝鮮的公路和鐵路狀況實在有些“尷尬”。

The contrasts between the North and South are particularly stark. North Korea generates a tiny fraction — less than 5 percent, by some estimates — of the electricity that South Korea does, leaving passengers stranded for hours in immobilized trains because of widespread power shortages, according to defectors from the country.

朝鮮和韓國之間的對比格外顯著。朝鮮的發(fā)電量只是韓國的一點零頭——據(jù)一些人估計不足其5%。據(jù)脫北者稱，由于普遍的電力短缺，乘客會被滯留在癱瘓的列車上數(shù)個小時。

The dueling economic realities of the two countries are on clear display from space: Even now, nighttime satellite photos show the southern half of the Korean Peninsula splotched with bright lights, while Mr. Kim’s North is shrouded in darkness, with only a pinprick of light indicating the location of Pyongyang, where the nation’s elite lives.

兩國經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)實對比從太空可以一覽無余：夜間衛(wèi)星照片顯示，即使是現(xiàn)在，朝鮮半島南部那一半都是明亮的燈光，而金正恩的北部卻籠罩在黑暗之中，只有一點燈光標示出了朝鮮權貴階層居住的平壤。

Without a doubt, North Korea has come a long way since the 1990s, when mass starvation stalked the population and the country was so energy-starved that travelers camped out in stations for days waiting for trains.

但毫無疑問，自20世紀90年代以來，朝鮮已經(jīng)取得了長足的進步。當時，大規(guī)模的饑荒正在人群中蔓延，而且這個國家的能源又是如此匱乏，以至于旅行者們要在火車站內(nèi)露宿多日，等待火車的到來。

Since taking over after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, Mr. Kim has installed water parks, ski resorts, a new airport, skyscrapers and even a dolphinarium. Cellphones have become a common consumer item in North Korean cities, although the country remains mostly shuttered from the global internet.

父親金正日去世后掌權的金正恩建起了水上公園、滑雪場、新機場、摩天大樓，甚至還有一個海豚館。手機也成為了朝鮮城市的常見消費品，盡管朝鮮基本上仍隔絕于全球互聯(lián)網(wǎng)之外。

But for all his efforts to portray himself as vigorous, approachable and goal-oriented, there is a limit to how far Mr. Kim can go under international sanctions, analysts say.

但分析人士表示，盡管他努力塑造出自己強有力而平易近人、具有全球視野的形象，但在國際制裁下，金正恩能走多遠仍然有限。

The domestic pressures on him are compounded in some ways by the growth of markets he has introduced and the emergence of a moneyed class in Pyongyang. Under Mr. Kim, a new generation is growing up exposed to DVDs and flash drives of South Korean soap operas and movies, raising expectations for a better quality of life.

從某種程度上說，他自己引入的市場的增長以及平壤富裕階層的出現(xiàn)，加劇了金正恩在面臨的壓力。在金正恩的領導下，在裝著韓國肥皂劇和電影的DVD、U盤中長大的新一代人，對更好的生活質(zhì)量有著更高的期待。

Mr. Kim has the power to rule his country and suppress dissent through extreme brutality. There is no political opposition.

金正恩擁有通過極度的殘酷來統(tǒng)治國家、鎮(zhèn)壓異見的力量。朝鮮沒有政治反對派。

He is believed to have ordered dozens of executions, including the killing of his own uncle, and North Korea still runs a network of prison gulags. Mr. Kim keeps the elite on its toes by frequently purging and reshuffling senior military and party officials.

據(jù)信他已下令處決了數(shù)十人，其中包括殺死自己姑父。朝鮮也還維持著一個監(jiān)獄勞改營網(wǎng)絡。通過經(jīng)常清洗并改組軍政高層，金正恩讓權貴們終日提心吊膽。

But he is also eager to be seen as “people loving.’’ Building a “strong socialist country” is his catchphrase.

但他也渴望被視作“熱愛人民”的領袖。他的口號是建設“強大的社會主義國家”。

Recent visitors say Pyongyang looks more colorful and prosperous than it did a decade ago, with stores stocked with imported and domestically produced foods. But conditions outside the capital remain dismal, with widespread malnutrition among children and nursing mothers, according to United Nations relief agencies.

近期到訪平壤的人說，這座城市比十年前看起來更加多彩、繁榮。商店里供應著進口和國產(chǎn)的食物。但是據(jù)聯(lián)合國救濟機構稱，首都之外的情況依然令人沮喪，兒童和哺乳期的母親普遍營養(yǎng)不良。

The most recent round of sanctions in the American-led “maximum pressure” campaign has undercut North Korea’s ability to earn hard currency needed to buy imports. Since September, the United Nations Security Council has banned all major North Korean exports, including coal, iron ore, seafood and textiles. If enforced fully, the sanctions could eliminate 90 percent of the country’s total exports.

在美國領導的“最大壓力”運動中，最新一輪的制裁讓朝鮮很難獲得購買進口產(chǎn)品所需的硬通貨。從9月起，聯(lián)合國安理會已經(jīng)全面禁止了朝鮮的主要出口，包括煤炭、鐵礦石、海產(chǎn)品和紡織品。如果制裁得到充分執(zhí)行，可減少朝鮮總出口的90%。

Mr. Trump’s surprise decision to withdraw from the summit meeting could also play into Mr. Kim’s favor, especially if China — North Korea’s main trading partner — blames Washington and chooses not to enforce sanctions as vigorously.

特朗普退出首腦會晤的驚人決定，可能也會對金正恩有利，尤其是如果朝鮮的主要貿(mào)易伙伴——中國——怪罪于華盛頓，并決定在制裁的執(zhí)行上打一些折扣。

In the weeks leading up the meeting, Mr. Kim had taken very public steps to lay the groundwork for negotiations, including releasing three American prisoners and suspending weapons tests. On Thursday, he demolished his country’s only nuclear test site.

在會議的前幾周，金正恩采取了非常公開的行動，為談判奠定了基礎，其中包括釋放三名美國囚犯，暫停武器實驗。周四，他拆除了朝鮮唯一的核試驗場。

Then, just hours later, Mr. Trump abruptly pulled out of the summit. Instead of reacting with rancor, the North Koreans put out a calm response, saying they would do “everything we can for the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula.”

接著，就在幾小時后，特朗普突然退出了首腦會晤。但朝鮮非但沒有以敵意回應，反而擺出了一個冷靜姿態(tài)，表示他們會“為朝鮮半島的和平與穩(wěn)定盡己所能”。

Mr. Trump softened his tone on Friday, saying a meeting might take place after all, but the diplomatic seesawing by the American president suddenly made Mr. Kim look like a reliable and consistent negotiating partner.

周五，特朗普緩和了口吻，表示會晤可能終究還是會舉行。但是這位在外交上舉棋不定的美國總統(tǒng)，突然讓金正恩看起來像是個可靠而如一的談判伙伴了。