擔(dān)憂中國搶占5G先機？美兩大電信運營商宣布合并

BEIJING — As tensions rise between the United States and China in the high-tech realm, even a merger of two American wireless providers has become entangled in fears about losing international competitiveness.

北京——隨著美國和中國在高科技領(lǐng)域的緊張局勢持續(xù)升溫，即使是兩個美國無線供應(yīng)商的合并，都牽扯到國際競爭力損失方面的擔(dān)憂。

T-Mobile and Sprint announced on Sunday that they would combine. By joining forces, the two mobile carriers said, they would help ensure that American companies remained world leaders in the coming era of fifth-generation wireless technology, or 5G.

周日，T-Mobile和Sprint宣布它們將會合并。兩家移動運營商表示，通過攜手合作，他們能確保美國公司在即將到來的第五代無線技術(shù)——又稱5G——時代中保持世界領(lǐng)先地位。

The implication: Failure to keep up in 5G would give China and Chinese firms the edge.

言下之意是：跟不上5G時代，就會讓中國和中國公司搶占先機。

Many analysts believe that such talk is merely aimed at persuading the Trump administration to approve the deal. Regulators blocked a previous merger attempt by the companies, worried that fewer wireless providers would lead to higher prices.

許多分析人士認(rèn)為，這樣的話語只不過是為了說服特朗普政府批準(zhǔn)交易。因為擔(dān)心無線供應(yīng)商的減少會導(dǎo)致價格上漲，監(jiān)管部門阻止了此前的一次合并。

“They kept pointing to China on the call, but that is just a nice way to grease the skids,” said Will Townsend, an analyst with Moor Insights and Strategy, a research firm based in Texas, referring to a T-Mobile conference call with reporters and analysts on Sunday.

“他們在電話里一直在拿中國說事，但這只是一種為了使事情順利發(fā)展的漂亮辦法，”德克薩斯州穆爾咨詢和戰(zhàn)略公司(Moor Insights and Strategy)的威爾·湯森(Will Townsend)說，他所指的是T-Mobile周日時與記者和分析師進(jìn)行的電話會議。

The focus on China does raise tricky questions for Sprint’s controlling shareholder, the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank, which buys telecom equipment from Chinese manufacturers. Still, most experts agree that the deal would produce a healthier company, one with more financial resources to pursue 5G. And where the rivalry in advanced industries between the United States and China is concerned, the prize is significant.

這種對中國的關(guān)注，令Sprint的控股股東——向中國制造商購買電信設(shè)備的日本集團公司軟銀(SoftBank)——面臨棘手的局面。不過大多數(shù)專家仍同意這筆交易將創(chuàng)造一個更加健康的公司，有更多可以用來發(fā)展5G的財力。而要是考慮到美國和中國之間在先進(jìn)行業(yè)內(nèi)競爭，回報將是十分誘人的。

It is not just the ultrafast video downloads and web surfing that such networks could provide for consumers. Rather, it is the whole range of future economic and technological opportunities — from self-driving cars to smart cities and factories — that they could open up.

這種網(wǎng)絡(luò)不只能為消費者提供極速的視頻下載和上網(wǎng)體驗，還涵蓋了它能開啟的所有未來經(jīng)濟機遇和科技機遇——不論是無人駕駛汽車，還是智能城市和智能工廠。

“It’s hard to argue that 5G is not key to the next five to 10 years,” said Chris Lane, a telecom analyst in Hong Kong with Sanford C. Bernstein. “Strategically, if you’re the U.S. and you’re trying to plan industrial policy, this deal makes sense.”

“5G是往后5至10年內(nèi)的關(guān)鍵，這是不容爭辯的事實，”桑福德-伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C. Bernstein)駐香港的電信分析師克里斯·萊恩(Chris Lane)表示。“從戰(zhàn)略上說，如果你是美國人，并且你在努力制定工業(yè)政策，那這筆交易很有必要。”

Mobile carriers in China have already announced bold plans to roll out 5G networks, and the creation of a new American wireless giant would be unlikely to affect them. China Mobile, which has nearly 900 million wireless customers, is aiming to begin large-scale 5G trials in several Chinese cities this year.

中國的移動運營商已經(jīng)宣布了鋪設(shè)5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)的大膽計劃，而合并而成的美國無線新巨頭也不太可能對它們產(chǎn)生什么影響。擁有將近9億無線網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶的中國移動今年正致力于在中國的幾個城市開始大規(guī)模的5G測試。

Other Chinese companies are still vulnerable to American pressure, though. In particular, the United States government has placed restrictions on one giant Chinese supplier of the equipment that will make those new networks possible, and is investigating another.

不過，其他中國公司仍然容易受美國的壓力影響。特別是，美國政府已對一家在新網(wǎng)絡(luò)鋪設(shè)中扮演重要角色的中國設(shè)備供應(yīng)巨頭實施了限制，還在對另一家進(jìn)行調(diào)查。

For years, Huawei and ZTE have been unable to sell to large American wireless operators over security concerns. But the Department of Commerce recently went further, blocking ZTE from using American-made components for seven years, saying the company had failed to reprimand employees who violated American sanctions against Iran and North Korea.

多年來，出于安全考慮，華為和中興一直無法向美國大型無線運營商出售產(chǎn)品。但美國商務(wù)部最近又進(jìn)一步阻止了中興在七年內(nèi)使用美國制造的零部件，稱該公司未能懲罰違反了美國對伊朗和朝鮮制裁禁令的員工。

ZTE now faces the prospect of being unable to manufacture network gear during the years in which wireless providers in China and elsewhere will most likely be building 5G networks. Huawei, meanwhile, faces an continuing inquiry related to violations of American trade controls.

現(xiàn)在，在中國和其他地區(qū)的無線供應(yīng)商很可能會打造出5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)的這些年內(nèi)，中興可能將無法制造網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備。與此同時，華為也一直在接受違反美國貿(mào)易管制方面的調(diào)查。

Serious disruption to either company’s business could mean a boon for their main rivals in telecommunications equipment, Nokia of Finland and Ericsson of Sweden.

兩家公司業(yè)務(wù)受到的嚴(yán)重干擾，對他們在電信設(shè)備業(yè)的主要對手——芬蘭的諾基亞(Nokia)和瑞典的愛立信(Ericsson)來說，可能是一個福音。

It could also put SoftBank in an awkward position.

這也會讓軟銀陷入尷尬的境地。

“SoftBank has been working with ZTE in Japan, but now they have to try to find other partners,” said Tsutsumu Ishikawa, an independent expert in Tokyo who covers the mobile industry.

“在日本，軟銀一直在與中興合作，但他們現(xiàn)在不得不去找其他合作伙伴了，”在東京報道移動產(chǎn)業(yè)的獨立專家石川溫(Tsutsumu Ishikawa)說道。

As T-Mobile and Sprint seek Washington’s blessing for their union, the Trump administration might even require that SoftBank drop Huawei and ZTE as suppliers, said Mr. Lane of Bernstein. Masayoshi Son, SoftBank’s founder, has also cultivated personal ties with President Trump.

伯恩斯坦公司的萊恩說，在T-Mobile和Sprint尋求華盛頓批準(zhǔn)它們合并時，特朗普政府甚至可能要求軟銀不再把華為和中興作為供應(yīng)商。軟銀創(chuàng)始人孫正義(Masayoshi Son)也和特朗普總統(tǒng)建立起了私交。

“If the administration for whatever reason doesn’t want Chinese suppliers of network equipment in Japan, either — and it’s possible — then I’m sure Masa would be willing to compromise,” Mr. Lane said, using Mr. Son’s nickname. “I think he’s quite pragmatic.”

“不管出于什么原因，如果政府也不想讓中國網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備供應(yīng)商出現(xiàn)在日本——這是有可能的——那么我相信Masa愿意妥協(xié)，”萊恩說。“我認(rèn)為他很務(wù)實。”Masa是孫正義的昵稱。

A SoftBank spokeswoman declined to comment.

軟銀發(fā)言人拒絕置評。

As much promise as 5G seems to hold for tomorrow’s economy, it is not clear that technologies such as driverless cars will have matured by the time the new mobile networks are ready. That means carriers in the United States and China may be racing to build infrastructure more quickly than the technology that would make best use of it is developing.

盡管在未來的經(jīng)濟中，5G似乎前景看好，但不清楚到新的移動網(wǎng)絡(luò)準(zhǔn)備就緒時，諸如無人駕駛汽車這樣的技術(shù)是否已經(jīng)成熟。這意味著，美國和中國的運營商現(xiàn)在競相修建基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，但將來利用這些設(shè)施的技術(shù)的發(fā)展速度可能滯后。

At a recent Huawei summit meeting in the company’s home city, Shenzhen, executives sounded eager to tame sky-high hopes for 5G, describing the technology as an evolution and not a revolution.

最近，華為在其深圳總部舉行的一場領(lǐng)導(dǎo)會議上，高管們似乎都急于淡化對5G的過高期望，稱這項技術(shù)只是一種進(jìn)化，而不是一場革命。

“We do have expectations for 5G, but the expectations are not as great as everyone imagines,” said Eric Xu, Huawei’s deputy chairman. “Because we have implemented 4G very well, we don’t see many clear applications that can only be supported with 5G.”

“我們對5G不是沒有期望，但是期望沒有大家想象的那么大，”華為輪值首席執(zhí)行官徐直軍說。“而且由于現(xiàn)在4G網(wǎng)絡(luò)很好，必須靠5G支持的應(yīng)用還不是很明顯。”

Doubts about the technology’s near-term usefulness are also why telecom carriers outside China and the United States, as well as other notable exceptions like Japan and South Korea, are moving toward the 5G age more cautiously.

中美之外的電信運營商，以及日本和韓國等其他重要特例向5G時代邁進(jìn)時更加謹(jǐn)慎，也是因為懷疑這項技術(shù)在近期內(nèi)是否有用。

“A lot of people are genuinely struggling to figure out, ‘What is the business case for 5G?’” said Ramakrishna Maruvada, a telecom analyst in Singapore with Daiwa Capital Markets. “Most operators do not think faster consumer broadband is a good enough reason to be pursuing a huge leap in technology.”

“很多人真的想不明白，‘發(fā)展5G的商業(yè)理由是什么?’”大和資本市場公司(Daiwa Capital Markets)駐新加坡的電信分析師羅摩克里希納·馬魯瓦達(dá)(Ramakrishna Maruvada)說。“大部分運營商并不認(rèn)為更快的消費者寬帶是追求巨大技術(shù)飛躍的充分理由。”