美國通脹升至近一年最高水平

The Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure picked up to its strongest level in almost a year in February, supporting expectations that a solid economy and tight labour market are pushing price growth towards the central bank’s target.

美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)的首選通脹指標2月升至近一年來最高水平，支持有關(guān)方面的預期：穩(wěn)健的經(jīng)濟和偏緊的勞動力市場正將價格漲速推向美國央行的目標水平。

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 1.6 per cent on the year, the largest increase since April 2017, according to a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

根據(jù)美國經(jīng)濟分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的報告，剔除食品和能源之后的個人消費支出價格指數(shù)同比上漲1.6%，達到2017年4月以來的最大漲幅。

While that is well shy of the Fed’s 2 per cent target, the three-month annualised rate of gain is 2.8 per cent, said Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase. He predicted that year-on-year figures will continue to push higher in the coming months, taking inflation close to the Fed’s goal.

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的邁克爾•費羅利(Michael Feroli)表示，盡管這仍遠低于美聯(lián)儲2%的通脹目標，但最近三個月的年化價格漲速達到2.8%。他預測未來幾個月的同比數(shù)據(jù)將繼續(xù)上行，使通脹接近美聯(lián)儲的目標。

Core inflation has not exceeded 2 per cent since April 2012, complicating the picture for a central bank that has been gradually reducing its stimulus programmes. This year the Fed has been putting less weight on sluggish inflation numbers as the buoyant labour market bolsters confidence that it is on track to hit its target.

自2012年4月以來，核心通脹率一直未超過2%，這使近年逐漸縮減其刺激計劃的美國央行面對的局面復雜化。今年以來，美聯(lián)儲對疲軟通脹數(shù)據(jù)不再看得很重，因為強勁的勞動力市場增強了官員們對于通脹將會觸及目標的信心。

The central bank’s median forecast this month suggested core price growth will modestly overshoot the 2 per cent target next year, supporting arguments for further increases in short-term interest rates. Among the factors lifting price growth in February was higher healthcare prices — a notable development given the role healthcare has played in recent years holding overall inflation back.

美國央行本月發(fā)布的中值預測似乎顯示，核心價格漲幅明年將輕微超出2%的目標水平，支持進一步上調(diào)短期利率的主張。推動2月份通脹上揚的因素包括醫(yī)療價格上漲——考慮到近年來醫(yī)療費用是拖累整體通脹的因素，這一發(fā)展值得注意。

“The overshoot [relative to what would be forecast based on consumer price index data] largely reflects a second straight jump in the hospital services component, which accounts for 10.4 per cent of the index,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said. “After years of margin compression, hospitals appear to be trying to exert pricing power”.

“通脹較高(相對于根據(jù)消費者價格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)預測的水平)主要反映了醫(yī)院服務板塊連續(xù)第二個月出現(xiàn)躍升，該板塊占指數(shù)的10.4%，”潘西恩宏觀經(jīng)濟咨詢公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席經(jīng)濟學家伊恩•謝潑德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示。“經(jīng)歷了多年的利潤率壓縮之后，醫(yī)院似乎在試圖動用定價能力”。

Personal income and personal spending were up on the month by 0.4 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively. Economists are expecting a slight easing of economic growth in the first quarter compared with the revised 2.9 per cent annual rate reported for the fourth quarter of 2017. According to the Atlanta Fed, first-quarter growth is on track to be around 2.4 per cent.

個人收入和個人支出分別環(huán)比上漲0.4%和0.2%。經(jīng)濟學家們預計，相比2017年第四季度修正后的2.9%年化增長率，今年第一季度經(jīng)濟增長將輕微放緩。亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(Atlanta Fed)表示，第一季度增長將達到2.4%左右。

That would still represent above-trend growth, however, and tax cuts and public spending increases are expected to add fuel to the recovery in the coming months. The Fed raised rates last week and is predicting another two increases this year. Some economists expect policymakers to lift the outlook to three further rises.

然而，這仍將代表著高于趨勢線的增長，而減稅和加大公共支出預計會在未來幾個月給經(jīng)濟復蘇添加燃料。美聯(lián)儲上周決定加息，并預計今年還將兩次上調(diào)利率。一些經(jīng)濟學家預計政策制定者將調(diào)高預測至今年還將加息三次。

A gauge of consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since 2004 in March, according to the University of Michigan, highlighting the bright outlook among US households.

根據(jù)密歇根大學(University of Michigan)的數(shù)據(jù)，美國消費者信心指數(shù)3月升至2004年以來最高水平，突顯美國家庭看好自己的前景。