白宮要求中國大幅減少雙邊貿(mào)易的不平衡

The Trump administration wants China to import more cars, aircraft, soybeans and natural gas to meet Washington’s aim of cutting the US bilateral trade deficit by $100bn, according to people familiar with talks between the two countries.

知情人士透露，特朗普政府希望中國進口更多汽車、飛機、大豆和天然氣，以達到華盛頓方面削減1000億美元美國對華貿(mào)易赤字的目標。

Reducing the trade deficit through higher US exports could ease demands for curbs on Chinese exports to the US — and so help spare goods made by American companies in China from new US import tariffs.

通過提高美國出口來減少貿(mào)易逆差，可能緩解限制中國對美出口的要求，從而幫助美國公司在中國制造的產(chǎn)品免受美國新的進口關(guān)稅的打擊。

Chinese envoy Liu He was asked for a written plan to reduce the US deficit during a White House meeting this month with treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Gary Cohn, Mr Trump’s outgoing chief economic adviser, according to three people briefed on the discussions.

據(jù)三位聽取了商談情況簡報的人士介紹，中國特使劉鶴本月在白宮與美國財長史蒂文•姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)、美國貿(mào)易代表羅伯特•萊特希澤(Robert Lighthizer)以及即將離任的特朗普首席經(jīng)濟顧問加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)會晤期間，被要求拿出一份減少美國對華貿(mào)易赤字的書面計劃。

The $100bn demand would account for more than a quarter of last year’s $375bn deficit in the trade in goods.

1000億美元的要求將占到去年美國3750億美元商品貿(mào)易逆差的四分之一以上。

The White House set its demand high so that Beijing — which has offered to liberalise financial services and drop some foreign shareholding limits, but has stopped short of specific timelines — would struggle to meet it.

白宮開口提出較高的要求，使得北京方面難以達到。中方已承諾放開金融服務(wù)和放棄一部分外資持股限制，但沒有拿出具體時間表。

The Chinese delegation’s initial response was that a demand to cut the deficit by fiat was not a market-oriented way of doing business.

中國代表團的初步回應(yīng)是，指令式減少赤字的要求不是以市場為導(dǎo)向的處置方式。

The preferred option for reaching the $100bn target is for the US to increase exports to China sharply, probably by increasing shipments of soyabeans, aircraft, cars and natural gas.

達到1000億美元目標的首選方案是美國大幅增加對華出口，很可能是通過增加大豆、飛機、汽車和天然氣銷售。

The target could also be reached with sharp cuts in Chinese exports of manufactured goods such as machinery and electrical products, or a combination of both higher US exports and lower imports.

達到這一目標的途徑也可以是大幅減少中國的機械和電子產(chǎn)品等制成品的出口，或者增加美國對華出口與減少從中國進口相結(jié)合。

The target is 100 times the size of a deficit reduction goal President Donald Trump referred to last week, when he tweeted that China had been asked for a “One Billion Dollar reduction in their massive Trade Deficit with the US”.

這個削減赤字的目標比唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)總統(tǒng)上周提到的數(shù)字大了100倍，當時他在Twitter上寫道，中國已被要求“將美國的巨額對華貿(mào)易逆差減少10億美元”。

“I was thinking, how could it be only $1bn? Then I heard he got the number wrong,” said Li Yong, senior fellow at the China Association of International Trade. Mr Li added that setting a number could help produce a “pragmatic attitude” towards the issue but would not work as a “rigid target”.

“我當時就在想，怎么可能只有10億美元?然后我聽說他搞錯了數(shù)字，”中國國際貿(mào)易學(xué)會(China Association of International Trade)高級研究員李永表示。李永補充說，設(shè)定一個數(shù)字可能有助于雙方在這個問題上產(chǎn)生“務(wù)實的態(tài)度”，但作為一個“僵化的目標”不會管用。

Chinese and US calculations of the trade gap differ by up to 20 per cent, commerce minister Zhong Shan said on Sunday. “The imbalance is partly due to American export restrictions,” he said, referring to high-tech and military-use items that the US blocks for export to China. “If those were relaxed, the deficit would be cut by one-third.”

中國商務(wù)部部長鐘山周日表示，中美對貿(mào)易差距的計算結(jié)果相差高達20%。他指出這種不平衡的部分原因是美國的對華出口管制——此言指的是美國禁止向中國出口高科技和軍事物品。他稱，如果出口管制放松了，赤字就會減少三分之一。

He added: “No one wins from a trade war.”

他補充說：“貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)沒有贏家。”

Mr Trump hinted at the discussions last week during an announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. “We’re negotiating, now, with China. I don’t know that anything’s going to come of it. They have been very helpful,” he told reporters.

特朗普最近在宣布對鋼鐵和鋁進口開征新關(guān)稅時，隱約提到了上述討論。“我們正在與中國談判。我不知道會有什么結(jié)果。他們一直非常樂于幫忙，”他對記者們表示。

But Beijing and the Trump administration are on different pages, one person with knowledge of the talks said. The White House wants long-term changes in the balance of trade through structural reforms to China’s intellectual property regime and the lifting of tariffs on automobile and other US exports into China.

但是，了解談判情況的一位知情人士說，北京方面和特朗普政府難以談攏。白宮希望中國對知識產(chǎn)權(quán)制度進行結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，并消除針對美國汽車和其他產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅，從而實現(xiàn)貿(mào)易平衡的長期變化。

“The two sides are almost talking past each other,” the person said. “Most people are sceptical that at the end of the day the Chinese are going to do something that impacts the priorities of the administration.”

“雙方幾乎是在各說各的，”這位人士說。“對于中國人最終會不會做一些對本屆行政當局的優(yōu)先事項有影響的事情，多數(shù)人表示懷疑。”

Much of the trade gap reflects manufacturing by US brands in China that takes advantage of the country’s lower wages, looser environmental regulations and increasingly well-integrated supply chain and logistics infrastructure.

很大一部分貿(mào)易逆差反映了美國品牌在中國從事的制造活動——利用中國的較低工資、較寬松的環(huán)境法規(guī)，以及日益完善的供應(yīng)鏈和物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

More than 50 per cent of the Chinese trade surplus with the US comes from shipments of American-branded goods including Apple products, according to data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Machinery and Electronic Products.

根據(jù)中國機電產(chǎn)品進出口商會(CCCME)的數(shù)據(jù)，50%以上的中國對美貿(mào)易順差來自美國品牌商品——包括蘋果(Apple)產(chǎn)品——的出貨量。

“We have to acknowledge the market effect. There are 500,000 American importers — why are they buying from China?" said Mr Li of the China Association of International Trade. “American companies look for the best price to purchase and therefore maintain their growth and profits.”

“我們必須承認市場效應(yīng)。美國有50萬進口商——他們?yōu)槭裁匆獜闹袊徺I?”中國國際貿(mào)易學(xué)會的李永問道。“美國公司尋覓最佳的購買價格，從而保持自己的增長和利潤。”

Zhang Monan, of the China Center for International Economic Exchange, said recent US tax changes had “a clear effect” on short-term consumption and therefore on American imports from China. “American consumption is up but there has been no change in American exports,” she said.

中國國際經(jīng)濟交流中心(CCIEE)的張茉楠表示，近期美國的稅收變化對短期消費以及美國從中國的進口具有“明顯影響”。“美國人的消費增加了，但美國的出口沒有變化，”她表示。

The Trump administration is preparing tariffs targeted against China, as well as investment and visa restrictions, to pressure Beijing over its intellectual property regime, its use of commercial espionage and its requirement that foreign investors transfer technologies to Chinese partners. Such practices are estimated to have saved China tens of billions of dollars.

特朗普政府正準備針對中國實施關(guān)稅，外加投資和簽證限制，以便向北京方面施壓，矛頭指向中國的知識產(chǎn)權(quán)制度、其商業(yè)間諜活動，以及其要求外國投資者將技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓給中國合資伙伴。據(jù)估計，這些做法已經(jīng)為中國節(jié)省了數(shù)百億美元。

Eswar Prasad, a China expert at Cornell University, said Chinese officials told him Washington asked Mr Liu to reduce the US’s trade deficit with China by about $75bn.

康奈爾大學(xué)(Cornell University)的中國問題專家埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，中國官員告訴他，華盛頓要求劉鶴減少約750億美元的美國對華貿(mào)易逆差。

He added: “The new tariffs [on steel and aluminium] have strengthened the Trump administration’s hand in negotiations with China since the threat of broad and tough US unilateral trade sanctions can no longer be taken lightly.”

他補充說：“(對鋼鐵和鋁的)新關(guān)稅加強了特朗普政府對華談判的地位，因為美國采取廣泛和嚴厲單邊貿(mào)易制裁的威脅再也不能被輕視。”