中國(guó)在全球固定收益市場(chǎng)中的地位上升

Demand for Chinese bonds from international investors has risen significantly over the past two years and is forecast to grow further as Beijing opens up the country’s financial markets.

過(guò)去兩年，國(guó)際投資者對(duì)中國(guó)債券的需求顯著增長(zhǎng)，隨著北京方面開放中國(guó)的金融市場(chǎng)，這一需求預(yù)計(jì)還將進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)。

Holdings of onshore Chinese bonds by foreign institutional investors have increased by about 60 per cent since December 2016. Reforms such as the launch of the Bond Connect programme in July last year should help to facilitate fixed-income inflows from a wider pool of international investors.

自2016年12月以來(lái)，外國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者所持的中國(guó)在岸債券增長(zhǎng)了約60%。去年7月啟動(dòng)的“債券通”(Bond Connect)計(jì)劃等改革，應(yīng)該會(huì)有助于促進(jìn)范圍更廣的國(guó)際投資者的資金流入中國(guó)固定收益市場(chǎng)。

Chinese 10-year government bonds currently offer a yield of 3.96 per cent, higher than the US (2.66 per cent), Germany (0.63 per cent) or Japan (0.08 per cent).

中國(guó)10年期國(guó)債目前的收益率為3.96%，高于美國(guó)(2.66%)、德國(guó)(0.63%)和日本(0.08%)。

The Chinese government announced measures late last year designed to strengthen the financial system. 中國(guó)政府去年晚些時(shí)候宣布了加強(qiáng)金融體系的措施。

It also aims to reduce the debt pile that has accumulated in an effort to defuse risks that could destabilise the world’s second-biggest economy.

中國(guó)政府還力求削減累積的債務(wù)，以化解或破壞世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體穩(wěn)定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Although the country’s headline economic growth is expected to slow from its previously unsustainably high pace, China will remain the biggest driver of global economic expansion expected over the next two years.

盡管中國(guó)的總體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將從之前不可持續(xù)的高速放緩，但在接下來(lái)兩年里，預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)仍將是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張的頭號(hào)引擎。

Hayden Briscoe, head of fixed income Asia Pacific at UBS, says he expects to see a reduction in credit growth and further deleveraging this year, measures that should provide support to Chinese government bond yields.

瑞銀(UBS)亞太固定收益主管海登•布里斯科(Hayden Briscoe)表示，他預(yù)計(jì)今年信貸增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)減速，去杠桿將進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)，這些措施應(yīng)該會(huì)為中國(guó)的國(guó)債收益率提供支撐。

UBS estimates that foreign investors hold just 2.1 per cent ($167bn) of China’s $7.6tn bond market, the third largest in the world.

據(jù)瑞銀估計(jì)，外國(guó)投資者所持債券僅占中國(guó)7.6萬(wàn)億美元債券市場(chǎng)的2.1%(合1670億美元)。中國(guó)是全球第三大債券市場(chǎng)。

Index providers are adjusting their benchmarks to reflect the growing importance of China in global fixed-income markets.

指數(shù)提供商正在調(diào)整它們的基準(zhǔn)，以反映出中國(guó)在全球固定收益市場(chǎng)中日益提高的重要性。

Mr Briscoe expects to see a “major reallocation of capital” once China is included in the global fixed-income indices, which are widely used as benchmarks by international investors.

布里斯科預(yù)計(jì)，一旦中國(guó)被納入全球固定收益指數(shù)，將出現(xiàn)“重大的資本重配”。全球固定收益指數(shù)被國(guó)際投資者廣泛用作基準(zhǔn)。