美國(guó)人不相信政客

Brace yourselves for a controversial observation: many US politicians are decent people. There — I’ve said it. Few Americans seem to agree. The public’s trust in their leaders is hitting an all-time low. Other than Brazil and Greece, no other democracy has such contempt for its system. The US is at the other end of the spectrum to China, where the public’s faith in government leads the world, according to Edelman’s global trust barometer.

準(zhǔn)備好迎接一個(gè)有爭(zhēng)議的觀察心得：很多美國(guó)政客是正派人士。沒(méi)錯(cuò)，這話是我說(shuō)的。似乎沒(méi)有幾個(gè)美國(guó)人這么認(rèn)為。美國(guó)公眾對(duì)其領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的信任觸及歷史低點(diǎn)。除巴西和希臘外，沒(méi)有哪個(gè)民主國(guó)家如此鄙視本國(guó)的體制。Edelman全球信任度晴雨表顯示，中國(guó)公眾對(duì)政府的信任度居世界之首，而美國(guó)處于另一端。

“Nobody trusts anybody round here,” says Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator. “And most Americans don’t trust any of us.”

“這里沒(méi)有人信任任何人，”共和黨參議員林賽•格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)表示，“而大多數(shù)美國(guó)人不信任我們中的任何人。”

Can we blame them? At least partly, yes. The US government is of the people, by the people and for the people. Mistrust comes from the people too. Washington’s breakdown mirrors growing divisions in society — between white and non-white, graduates and non-graduates, city and hinterland, young and old. American politics has become a winner-takes-all game. Yet the constitution is built to work only when there is compromise. President Donald Trump can go to Davos this week because Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, agreed to reopen the US government. He could close it again when funding runs out in less than three weeks. Yet Mr Trump now taunts him as “Cryin’ Chuck”.

我們能怪他們嗎?至少在某些程度上，是該怪他們。美國(guó)政府是民治、民有、民享的政府。不信任也來(lái)自于民眾。華盛頓運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)不靈反映了美國(guó)社會(huì)日益加深的分裂——白人與非白人之間、畢業(yè)生與非畢業(yè)生之間、城市與鄉(xiāng)村之間、年輕人與老年人之間。美國(guó)政治已經(jīng)變成了一場(chǎng)贏家通吃的游戲。然而，憲法只有在各方妥協(xié)的情況下才能發(fā)揮作用。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)上周能去達(dá)沃斯，是因?yàn)閰⒆h院民主黨領(lǐng)袖查克•舒默(Chuck Schumer)同意讓美國(guó)政府恢復(fù)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。臨時(shí)撥款支撐的時(shí)間只有三周，到時(shí)他可以讓政府再次停擺。然而，眼下特朗普奚落他是“哭鼻子的查克”。

What would Mr Trump be calling him if the Democrats had not caved in? The chances are no better today for a deal than yesterday. Almost eight out of 10 Republicans think immigration is too high; fewer than three out of 10 Democrats agree. One party is overwhelmingly white. The other is majority non-white. Mr Trump says he would be happy with more incomers from Norway. But he draws the line at Africa. It is not as if the two can find common ground somewhere in between — Mexico for example. Most of the so-called Dreamers are Hispanic. These are the people from whom Mr Trump wants to “take America back”. It follows that Cryin’ Chuck will have no better luck at protecting them early next month than he did this week.

如果民主黨沒(méi)有讓步，特朗普會(huì)怎么稱呼他呢?今天兩黨達(dá)成協(xié)議的概率并不比昨天高。每10名共和黨人中，近8人認(rèn)為移民太多;但認(rèn)為移民太多的民主黨人不到三分之一。其中一黨絕大多數(shù)是白人。另外一黨多數(shù)是非白人。特朗普稱，他會(huì)樂(lè)于看到更多來(lái)自挪威的移民。但是他對(duì)非洲移民沒(méi)有好話。兩黨在兩者之間——比如墨西哥——似乎找不到共同立場(chǎng)。大多數(shù)所謂的“夢(mèng)想者”來(lái)自拉美國(guó)家。特朗普希望從這些人手中“奪回美國(guó)”。由此可見(jiàn)，“哭鼻子的查克”在下月初能夠保護(hù)他們的運(yùn)氣并不會(huì)好過(guò)上周。

Evaporation of trust is corroding politics across the west. But it is most toxic in the US. No other democracy is heading towards a majority-minority future. The world has yet to see what happens to a society when its majority ceases to be one. No other country has seen such a collapse in support for public service.

信任感消失殆盡正侵蝕著西方國(guó)家的政治。但這個(gè)問(wèn)題在美國(guó)最具毒性。除美國(guó)外，沒(méi)有哪個(gè)民主國(guó)家正在走向少數(shù)族裔占據(jù)多數(shù)人口的未來(lái)。世界還從未經(jīng)歷過(guò)，當(dāng)一個(gè)社會(huì)的多數(shù)族裔不再占人口多數(shù)的時(shí)候會(huì)發(fā)生什么情況。就支持公共服務(wù)而言，沒(méi)有別的國(guó)家出現(xiàn)過(guò)這樣的崩潰。

Mr Trump will sing America’s virtues to the world’s biggest investors in Davos on Friday. Back home he is obliterating America’s ability to govern itself. In no other serious democracy is its head of government accusing the main law enforcement bodies, the judiciary and the intelligence agencies of bias. Supposedly neutral appointees are now required to show personal loyalty to the president.

上周五，特朗普在達(dá)沃斯論壇上向世界各大投資者夸耀美國(guó)的優(yōu)越性。在國(guó)內(nèi)，他正在毀滅美國(guó)本身的治國(guó)能力。從沒(méi)有哪個(gè)正經(jīng)民主國(guó)家的政府首腦指責(zé)本國(guó)主要執(zhí)法機(jī)構(gòu)、司法機(jī)構(gòu)和情報(bào)機(jī)構(gòu)存在偏見(jiàn)。由總統(tǒng)任命的理應(yīng)中立的官員，如今被要求向他個(gè)人效忠。

Probably the last institution Mr Trump has not criticised is the US military. That is no accident. Alone among America’s institutions, the armed forces enjoy high public trust. Almost three-quarters have confidence in the military, according to Gallup. No other comes close to winning half of America. Congress is barely at double digits. Mr Schumer should not have closed the US government unless he was prepared to hold fast. Within 72 hours he had changed his mind. In between, Mr Trump tweeted that Democrats were “holding the military hostage over their desire to have unchecked illegal immigration”. Say what you like about Mr Trump, but he knows where to find the jugular. Which American, hand on heart, would prefer an illegal foreigner to a citizen soldier?

美國(guó)軍隊(duì)很可能是最后一個(gè)未遭特朗普批評(píng)的機(jī)構(gòu)。這并非偶然。在美國(guó)的各個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)中，只有武裝部隊(duì)享有高度的公眾信任。蓋洛普(Gallup)的調(diào)查顯示，近四分之三的美國(guó)人對(duì)軍隊(duì)有信心。沒(méi)有別的機(jī)構(gòu)能夠贏得近一半美國(guó)人的信任。對(duì)國(guó)會(huì)的信任度勉強(qiáng)達(dá)到兩位數(shù)。除非舒默準(zhǔn)備堅(jiān)守立場(chǎng)，否則他確實(shí)不應(yīng)該讓美國(guó)政府停擺。他在72小時(shí)內(nèi)就改變了主意。在此期間，特朗普在Twitter上發(fā)文稱，民主黨人“為了向非法移民敞開(kāi)大門而把我們的軍隊(duì)當(dāng)作人質(zhì)”。你愛(ài)怎么說(shuō)特朗普都可以，但他知道在哪里找到對(duì)手的致命弱點(diǎn)。捫心自問(wèn)，哪個(gè)美國(guó)人會(huì)喜歡一個(gè)非法的外國(guó)人勝過(guò)一個(gè)公民軍人?

But this is a dangerous journey. In a nation of tribes, only the warriors command respect. What happens if they lose it? A few months ago, I was sitting on a flight next to a young black woman in army uniform. A middle-aged white man walked back from business class to offer his seat. She politely refused. “Thank you for your service,” he said. Had she been a teacher, a lawmaker, a nurse or a central bank governor, nobody would have thanked her — let alone offered their seat.

但這是一條險(xiǎn)徑。在一個(gè)由不同部落組成的國(guó)家，只有軍人才能贏得尊重。如果他們失去尊重會(huì)發(fā)生什么?幾個(gè)月前我搭乘航班，旁邊是一位身穿軍裝的年輕黑人女士。一名中年白人男子從商務(wù)艙走過(guò)來(lái)，想把自己的座位讓給她。她禮貌地婉拒了。“感謝您為國(guó)效力。”他說(shuō)。如果她是一名教師、國(guó)會(huì)議員、護(hù)士或者央行行長(zhǎng)，沒(méi)有人會(huì)感謝她——更不用說(shuō)讓座了。

A generation ago, the US military was the most hated institution in America because of the Vietnam war. Today people flatter the uniform.

一代人之前，因?yàn)樵侥蠎?zhàn)爭(zhēng)，美國(guó)軍隊(duì)成了國(guó)內(nèi)最令人痛恨的機(jī)構(gòu)。如今，人們對(duì)軍人無(wú)比敬重。

Other public bodies should be studying how the Pentagon went from zero to hero. But the example runs both ways. If Mr Trump were to turn on the military, for example, there would be few places to hide. Likewise, if the army were to lose its confidence in elected politicians, the republic would be in trouble. We are closer to that point than many realise. The greatest bulwark between the US republic and a descent into tribalism are the men and women in uniform. We should ponder the implications of that. They are not reassuring.

其他公共機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)該研究五角大樓是如何從“狗熊”變?yōu)橛⑿鄣?。但是這個(gè)事也是兩方面的。例如，如果特朗普把批評(píng)的矛頭指向軍隊(duì)，就沒(méi)有多少地方可以隱藏了。同樣，如果軍隊(duì)對(duì)民選政界人士失去信心，美國(guó)這個(gè)共和國(guó)也會(huì)陷入麻煩。我們接近這一點(diǎn)的程度，超出許多人的意識(shí)。阻止美利堅(jiān)合眾國(guó)淪為部落社會(huì)的最大壁壘是美國(guó)軍人。我們應(yīng)該思考這其中的潛在影響。這些影響不能令人安心。