亞洲需求重新推高動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格

Thermal coal, the least loved major commodity, has jumped to its highest level since late 2016 as strong manufacturing activity in Asia and appetite from China drives demand.

作為“最不受鐘愛的大宗商品”，動(dòng)力煤的價(jià)格已躍升至2016年末以來(lái)的最高水平，原因是亞洲強(qiáng)勁的制造業(yè)活動(dòng)和中國(guó)的胃口推高了需求。

Thermal coal is burnt to generate electricity, and is a big source of income for miners such as Glencore, Whitehaven and Yancoal, which produce material for the seaborne market. While the fossil fuel is being phased out in Europe on environmental grounds, it still accounts for about 40 per cent of energy consumption in emerging markets.

動(dòng)力煤被用于燃燒發(fā)電，是嘉能可(Glencore)、Whitehaven、兗煤澳洲(Yancoal)等礦商的一大收入來(lái)源，這些企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的動(dòng)力煤主要通過(guò)海路運(yùn)輸。出于環(huán)?？紤]，這種化石燃料在歐洲正逐漸被淘汰，但它在新興市場(chǎng)的能源消費(fèi)中仍占到40%左右。

Its fortunes are therefore closely tied to manufacturing activity and the global economy, which most forecasters believe is enjoying the strongest period of expansion since the financial crisis. Indeed, coal-fired power generation rose in most of Asia’s major economies last year, boosting demand, according to BMO Capital Markets.

因此，動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)的走勢(shì)與制造業(yè)活動(dòng)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)息息相關(guān)——多數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)者都認(rèn)為，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于金融危機(jī)以來(lái)最強(qiáng)勁的擴(kuò)張時(shí)期。實(shí)際上，蒙特利爾銀行資本市場(chǎng)(BMO Capital Markets)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年亞洲大部分主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的燃煤發(fā)電量都有所增加，提振了動(dòng)力煤需求。

“Thermal coal — once again it is powering Asian growth and urbanisation,” said Glencore’s chief executive Ivan Glasenberg. “It’s another commodity where there’s been under-investment over the years.”

“動(dòng)力煤——再一次推動(dòng)著亞洲的增長(zhǎng)和城市化，”嘉能可首席執(zhí)行官伊萬(wàn)•格拉森伯格(Ivan Glasenberg)表示，“這是另一種多年來(lái)投資不足的大宗商品。”

Australian coal with an energy content of 6,000 kcal/kg — benchmark for the vast Asia market — is trading at $103 a tonne, according to a price assessment from Argus Media. Six months ago it was just above $80 a tonne.

阿格斯傳媒(Argus Media)的價(jià)格評(píng)估顯示，每千克6000大卡的澳洲動(dòng)力煤(亞洲市場(chǎng)的基準(zhǔn)動(dòng)力煤)目前的價(jià)格為每噸103美元。而6個(gè)月前，其價(jià)格僅略高于每噸80美元。

On the supply side, big new thermal coal mines are not in the works and projects are becoming more difficult to finance as banks and investors fret about their environmental credentials. This has helped tighten the market and drive up prices.

動(dòng)力煤供應(yīng)方面，目前沒有新的大型煤礦處于計(jì)劃開采階段，這一領(lǐng)域的項(xiàng)目越來(lái)越難獲得融資，因?yàn)殂y行和投資者擔(dān)心此類項(xiàng)目達(dá)不到環(huán)保要求。這加劇了供應(yīng)緊缺，推高了價(jià)格。

Of the new tonnes that are entering the market, traders say much of this is lower quality material from Indonesia that does not have a high calorific value and is not favoured by big utility companies in Asia. As well as the strength of the Asia industrial cycle, other factors have helped boost thermal coal prices across the region, analysts say.

對(duì)于新進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)力煤，交易商表示，其中很大一部分是來(lái)自印度尼西亞的品位較低、熱值較低的煤炭，并不受亞洲大型公用事業(yè)公司的青睞。分析師表示，除了亞洲工業(yè)周期強(qiáng)勁以外，還有其他一些因素也幫助推動(dòng)了整個(gè)地區(qū)動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格上漲。

China is allowing more coal-fired power generation this winter because of gas shortages and has loosened import restrictions. Domestic production in India has yet to pick up meaningfully, forcing it to buy from overseas and there is heavy congestion at ports in Australia, one of the world’s biggest suppliers.

由于天然氣短缺，中國(guó)今年冬季允許進(jìn)行更多的燃煤發(fā)電，并放松了進(jìn)口限制。印度國(guó)內(nèi)的煤炭開采并未實(shí)現(xiàn)切實(shí)的增長(zhǎng)，迫使其從海外購(gòu)買煤炭。澳大利亞各港口出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重?fù)矶?，它是全球最大的煤炭供?yīng)國(guó)之一。

“Supply is still very tight, probably not going to catch up with demand easily in January and February,” said Shirley Zhang, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

Wood Mackenzie首席分析師Shirley Zhang表示：“供應(yīng)仍然非常緊張，可能在1月和2月都不大容易趕上需求。”

Traders reckon thermal coal could remain about $100 a tonne ahead of the annual contract negotiations between Japanese utility companies and Australian producers, which are usually led by Tohoku Electric Power and Glencore respectively.

交易商認(rèn)為，在日本公用事業(yè)公司與澳大利亞生產(chǎn)商——通常分別由日本東北電力公司(Tohoku Electric Power)和嘉能可牽頭——進(jìn)行年度合同談判之前，動(dòng)力煤的價(jià)格可能將保持在每噸100美元左右。

The April-March contracts historically accounted for up to half of Japan’s annual thermal coal imports. While that figure has fallen they are still used as a benchmark across the region by other consumers.

按照慣例，4月至次年3月的年度合同最高會(huì)占到日本年度動(dòng)力煤進(jìn)口的一半左右。雖然這一數(shù)字已經(jīng)有所下降，但這些合同仍會(huì)被其他客戶奉為整個(gè)地區(qū)的參照基準(zhǔn)。

Japanese power utilities typically pay a premium to secure supplies from Australia on long-term contracts because the coal works well in their boilers and meets environmental controls.

在這種長(zhǎng)期合同中，日本電力公司通常會(huì)支付更優(yōu)越的價(jià)格，以確保獲得來(lái)自澳大利亞的供應(yīng)，因?yàn)閯?dòng)力煤在他們的鍋爐中燃燒較為充分，符合環(huán)境控制要求。

Last year the contracts were settled at $85 when the prevailing price was roughly $77. A price of $90 this year would deliver a big windfall for Glencore, which produces coal at $48 a tonne.

去年，這些合同的簽約價(jià)格為每噸85美元，而當(dāng)時(shí)主流的價(jià)格大約是每噸77美元。今年合同價(jià)如果定在每噸90美元，將為嘉能可帶來(lái)更多收入，該公司的煤炭生產(chǎn)成本為每噸48美元。

Over the long-term, analysts say coal faces significant headwinds, not least in China where the government wants to replace coal-fired boilers and more widely the huge falls in the cost of renewable energy.

分析師表示，長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，煤炭面臨著很大的不利因素，在中國(guó)，政府希望將燃煤鍋爐替換掉，況且從更大的范圍來(lái)說(shuō)，可再生能源的成本已大幅下降。