Lex專欄：亞洲并購幾家歡喜幾家愁

To the ruler, the people are heaven; to the people, food is. So goes a Chinese proverb. The appetite of China’s companies for cross-border deals contrasts with a regulatory reluctance to approve them. That partly explains why the volume of regional mergers and acquisitions by Asian companies, outside Japan, fell more than half last year, according to Mergermarket data.

中國有句古話說：王者以民為天，而民以食為天。中國企業(yè)對(duì)跨境并購的興趣與監(jiān)管部門不愿批準(zhǔn)的情況形成鮮明對(duì)比。Mergermarket的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，這在一定程度上解釋了為什么亞洲(不包括日本)企業(yè)的地區(qū)并購額在去年下降了一半以上。

Despite companies’ desire to spend outside mainland China, restrictions on risky deals have had a significant effect. US regulators have also become more wary of intellectual property and consumer data issues. Global cross-border merger volumes declined 1.3 per cent compared to the previous year, to $1.32tn.

盡管中國內(nèi)地企業(yè)愿意在境外投資，但對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)交易的限制卻產(chǎn)生了巨大的影響。美國監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)也越來越關(guān)注知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)和消費(fèi)者數(shù)據(jù)問題。全球跨境并購交易額比上年下降1.3%，至1.32萬億美元。

True, overall Asian M&A was buoyed by a number of large deals, such as the $24.7bn acquisition of Australian property group Westfield’s US and UK assets by France’s Unibail-Rodamco. That deal made the property sector top in M&A volumes in the region. Property markets in Asia, especially Hong Kong, remain robust. Residential prices there are forecast to rise as much as a fifth next year, say consultants JLL.

誠然，亞洲并購整體受到了許多大額交易的推動(dòng)，如法國的尤尼百-洛當(dāng)科集團(tuán)(Unibail-Rodamco)斥資247億美元收購澳大利亞房地產(chǎn)集團(tuán)西田集團(tuán)(Westfield)在美國和英國的資產(chǎn)。這筆交易讓房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在該地區(qū)的并購交易額中占據(jù)首位。亞洲(尤其是香港)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)依然強(qiáng)勁。JLL咨詢公司表示，預(yù)計(jì)明年住宅價(jià)格將上漲20%。

The real winner of the last year was private equity. Deal volumes across Asia, including Japan, rose 45 per cent to $144bn. A big contributor there was the $15.9bn buyout of Global Logistic Properties by Hopu Investment Management and Vanke.

去年真正的贏家是私人股本。包括日本在內(nèi)的亞洲地區(qū)的私人股本并購交易額增長了45%，達(dá)到1440億美元。其中一大交易是厚樸基金(Hopu Investment Management)和萬科(Vanke)斥資159億新加坡元收購了普洛斯(Global Logistic Properties)。

Three statistics may raise concerns. In Japan, the value of companies acquired by foreign firms was higher than domestic acquisitions for only the second time ever. Last year’s average deal value of $353m, too, exceeds that of any year but one. The same holds for the number of technology deals. For all three of those metrics the previous high water mark was 2001, the twilight of the technology bubble.

三個(gè)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)可能引人關(guān)注。在日本，外國企業(yè)收購的企業(yè)價(jià)值高于國內(nèi)企業(yè)收購，這只是有史以來第二次。去年的平均交易價(jià)值3.53億美元，也是歷年來的第二高水平。技術(shù)領(lǐng)域并購交易數(shù)量同樣如此。對(duì)于這三個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)來說，前一次的高峰出現(xiàn)在科技泡沫即將破滅的2001年。

A hint of indigestion to come? Maybe, but the banquet could still go on for a while. Acquisitions better aligned with Beijing’s priorities will get a better reception, likewise less politically sensitive targets. Meanwhile, economic recovery in Europe, tax cuts in the US and cheap debt everywhere suggest global M&A should top $3tn again in 2018.

這是未來出現(xiàn)消化不良的征兆?也許，但宴會(huì)仍將持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。更符合北京優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)的收購將會(huì)得到更好的接待，不那么政治敏感的收購目標(biāo)同樣如此。與此同時(shí)，歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇、美國減稅以及世界各地債務(wù)成本低意味著，全球并購在2018年應(yīng)會(huì)再次突破3萬億美元。