中國(guó)共享單車依然在路上

The bike-sharing industry has gone from a start-up pitch to mainstream take-up to its first failure in little under a year, led by Chinese companies that have sought to quickly dominate the market with a deluge of cheap bicycles.

共享單車行業(yè)在接近一年的時(shí)間里經(jīng)歷了三種局面：從初創(chuàng)企業(yè)紛紛爭(zhēng)取投資，到單車得到廣泛使用，再到出現(xiàn)首例倒閉。引領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷的是那些希望通過大量投放低成本單車迅速占領(lǐng)市場(chǎng)的中國(guó)企業(yè)。

In 2017, Chinese companies such as ofo and Mobike have expanded rapidly in Europe and the US, backed, respectively, by the deep pockets of tech giants Alibaba and Tencent. But questions exist about whether this is a long-term shift in ownership model or a fad that is only sustainable in the busiest of city centres.

2017年，ofo和摩拜(Mobike)等中國(guó)企業(yè)在歐美迅速擴(kuò)張，這兩家公司分別得到了科技巨擘阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和騰訊(Tencent)的巨額資金支持。但這是預(yù)示著所有權(quán)模式的長(zhǎng)期變化還是一股只能在最繁忙的城市中心才可持續(xù)的風(fēng)尚，目前尚存疑問。

“It is difficult to see how the companies will become very profitable,” says Mark Tluszcz, chief executive of Mangrove Capital Partners, the venture capital group. “The idea that bike ownership models will change is a very long-term hypothesis.”

“很難想象這些公司將獲得巨大盈利，”風(fēng)投集團(tuán)曼格魯夫資本合伙公司(Mangrove Capital Partners)的首席執(zhí)行官馬克•特魯斯科斯(Mark Tluszcz)表示，“認(rèn)為單車所有權(quán)模式將發(fā)生變化的想法是一種非常長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的假說。”

Ofo and Mobike, which were founded in 2014 and 2015, are at the vanguard of the shared-bike market. According to estimates from Roland Berger, the consultancy, 10m bikes are shared globally — of which about 7m are in China. This compares with global figures of just 1.5m in 2015 and 4m last year.

Ofo和摩拜分別創(chuàng)建于2014年和2015年，是共享單車市場(chǎng)上的先鋒。根據(jù)咨詢公司羅蘭貝格(Roland Berger)的估算，全球共享單車數(shù)量為1000萬輛，其中約700萬輛在中國(guó)。2015年和2016年全球共享單車分別僅為150萬輛和400萬輛。

But at least 11 start-ups have been raising funds aggressively since the middle of last year, raising concerns about an unsustainable venture capital fuelled growth that relies on an untested consumer trend.

但自去年年中以來，至少有11家初創(chuàng)企業(yè)一直在大舉融資，這引發(fā)了人們對(duì)于由風(fēng)投驅(qū)動(dòng)的增長(zhǎng)不可持續(xù)的擔(dān)憂，這種增長(zhǎng)依賴于一種未經(jīng)檢驗(yàn)的消費(fèi)趨勢(shì)。

“The bike-sharing market is definitely attractive and drawing the attention of several new entrants but at the end of the day not all of them are going to be successful,” says Alexander Dyskin, transportation consultant at Roland Berger.

羅蘭貝格交通業(yè)咨詢顧問亞歷山大•迪斯金(Alexander Dyskin)表示：“共享單車市場(chǎng)確實(shí)具有吸引力，引起了多個(gè)新進(jìn)入者的關(guān)注，但最終它們不會(huì)都成功。”

“It’s not enough to just flood cities with bikes — you have to look for the right infrastructure, have the support of local governments and grow the market.”

“在城市大量投放單車還不夠，你還必須尋找完善的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、獲得當(dāng)?shù)卣闹С植⒆龃笫袌?chǎng)。”

China’s Bluegogo, which collapsed last week, is not the first dockless bike-sharing service to fail. More than 50 years ago, Amsterdam’s Witte Fietsen — or White Bikes service — closed in a matter of days after people threw the free, unlocked, white bikes into canals and rivers, or stole them.

今年11月，中國(guó)的小藍(lán)單車(Bluegogo)倒閉，它并非首個(gè)倒閉的無樁單車共享服務(wù)。50多年前，阿姆斯特丹的“白色單車”(Witte Fietsen)推出沒多少天就關(guān)閉了，因?yàn)橛行┤藢⑦@種免費(fèi)、沒有上鎖的白色自行車扔進(jìn)溝渠和河里，還有人偷竊單車。

In the decades since, cities and companies have launched restricted versions of this model where riders leave shared bikes in specific places using docking stations. But the past year has seen an explosion in venture-backed start-ups offering shared bikes that can be unlocked with smartphones and — crucially — left anywhere.

此后幾十年，許多城市和企業(yè)推出了這種模式的限制版，騎車者要把共享單車存放在有停車樁的指定區(qū)域。但在過去一年里，由風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資支持的共享單車初創(chuàng)企業(yè)急劇增多，這些單車可以通過智能手機(jī)解鎖，最重要的是，它們可以被停放在任何地方。

“For years lots of cities have wanted a huge bike-sharing service,” says Joseph Seal-Driver, UK operations director for ofo, which last week became the first bike-sharing start-up to raise $1bn.

ofo英國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)總監(jiān)約瑟夫•希爾-德里弗(Joseph Seal-Driver)表示：“多年來，很多城市希望推出大規(guī)模單車共享服務(wù)。”ofo最近成為首家融資10億美元的共享單車初創(chuàng)企業(yè)。

“We’re expanding and we’re providing dockless bike sharing as a service to people who want to move to more sustainable transport.”

“我們?cè)跀U(kuò)張，我們提供無樁單車共享服務(wù)，面向那些想要轉(zhuǎn)乘乘坐時(shí)間更久的交通工具的人們。”

But analysts and investors are still wary. Mr Tluszcz says: “If you’re going to be involved in a business like that it’s going to take a long time — that’s not two to five years, that’s 10 to 15 years — and you’ve got to have the capital to do that.”

但分析人士和投資者仍有所顧忌。特魯斯科斯表示：“如果你要投身這種業(yè)務(wù)，它需要很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間——不是兩到5年，而是10到15年——而且你得有資本。”