美國對朝動武尚面臨后勤難題

Escalating US rhetoric towards North Korea this year has stoked fears of war but Donald Trump’s threats of “fire and fury” have yet to be matched by the logistical and military build-up that would almost certainly precede any strike.

今年美國對朝鮮言論的升級引起了人們對戰(zhàn)爭的恐懼，但唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“火與怒”威脅尚未得到后勤行動與軍事集結(jié)的配合。美國在發(fā)動任何打擊之前，幾乎肯定要進行后勤行動與軍事集結(jié)。

While the US could launch some kind of pinprick attack on an individual target without the need for huge firepower, experts say the Pentagon would have to prepare for the possibility of serious retaliation.

盡管美國可以在不需要大量火力的情況下對某個目標發(fā)動某種定點攻擊，但專家們表示，五角大樓(Pentagon)將不得不為可能的嚴厲報復做好準備。

With more than 200,000 US citizens in South Korea and another 50,000 in Japan, Washington would almost certainly want to conduct an evacuation. But this would be a big logistical operation and could itself be the trigger for pre-emptive action by Kim Jong Un’s nuclear-armed regime.

由于韓國有20多萬美國公民，日本還有5萬美國公民，華盛頓方面幾乎肯定要撤離他們。但這將是一次大規(guī)模后勤行動，本身就可能刺激擁核的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政權(quán)采取先發(fā)制人的行動。

The logistical complexity serves as a reminder of why the US and its allies have long discounted the possibility of an attack — something that could lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives and widespread economic disruption

后勤行動的復雜程度提醒了人們，為何美國及其盟友長期以來并不考慮發(fā)動攻擊的可能性——這可能導致數(shù)十萬人喪生以及大范圍的經(jīng)濟破壞。

A huge complicating factor for the US is the difficultly in locating North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Even if the US knew where they were, the only way to destroy them without visible preparations would be a nuclear first strike, launched by stealth aircraft flying from the US mainland, argues one former US military officer who has worked in the region.

對美國而言，一個巨大的復雜因素是難以找到朝鮮的核武器。一位曾在該地區(qū)服役的美國軍官表示，即使美國知道它們在哪里，沒有明顯準備就能摧毀它們的唯一方式，將是由美國大陸起飛的隱形飛機發(fā)起第一波核攻擊。

Mr Blair, who has served as the head of the US intelligence community, said it was “inconceivable that the US would use nuclear weapons” to launch a pre-emptive strike. “It just would be such a Pandora’s box and would make us the first country in history to use nuclear weapons for coercive purposes since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which is absolutely the wrong signal to send.”

前美國國家情報總監(jiān)丹尼斯•布萊爾(Dennis Blair)表示，“美國將使用核武器實施一次先發(fā)制人的打擊，這是不可想象的。”他說：“這將成為潘多拉的盒子，將讓我們成為歷史上自廣島和長崎以來第一個為達成強制目而使用核武器的國家。這絕對會發(fā)出錯誤信號。”

The US would be more likely to look at other options, from precision strikes on weapons facilities to a wider assault aimed at regime change.

美國將更有可能考慮其他選項——從對武器設施的精確打擊到旨在改變朝鮮政權(quán)的更廣泛攻擊。

Dennis Wilder, a former senior CIA analyst and Asia adviser to George W Bush, believes the US could, for example, attempt to destroy the facility near Pyongyang where North Korea fuelled and stored the recently fired Hwasong 15 intercontinental ballistic missile.

例如，曾任美國中情局(CIA)前高級分析師、小布什(George W Bush)亞洲事務顧問的韋德寧(Dennis Wilder)認為，美國可能會試圖摧毀平壤附近的一處設施——朝鮮不久前試射的“火星-15”(Hwasong 15)型洲際彈道導彈曾存放在該設施，并在那里添加燃料。

The problem for Washington, however, is that there is no guarantee that North Korea would not respond with a barrage of artillery fire on Seoul. As such, visible preparations — both offensive and defensive — would precede any strike, according to military experts.

然而，美國的問題在于無法保證朝鮮不會做出回應、對首爾進行一系列炮火攻擊。同樣，軍事專家們表示，在發(fā)動任何攻擊之前，美國都會進行明顯的準備(無論攻擊性的還是防御性的)。

According to operational plans for war with North Korea, nearly 700,000 US soldiers would be mobilised alongside 160 ships, 1,600 aircraft and about 2.7m South Korean reservists, said Kim Yeol-soo, head of security at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs. Strategic assets, such as aircraft carriers, F-22 jets and B1-B bombers, would also be deployed.

韓國軍事問題研究院(Korea Institute for Military Affairs)安全問題研究主管Kim Yeol-soo表示，根據(jù)對朝作戰(zhàn)計劃，除了160艘艦船、1600架飛機和大約270萬名韓國預備役軍人，還將動員將近70萬美國士兵。美國也將部署航空母艦、F-22戰(zhàn)斗機和B1-B轟炸機等戰(zhàn)略性裝備。

Such assets are occasionally used in training exercises on the peninsula, which North Korea bitterly criticises as precursors to an invasion. When F-22 Raptor jets participated in air drills this month, Pyongyang said the “outbreak of war” had become an “established fact”.

這類裝備有時會在針對朝鮮半島的訓練演習中使用，朝鮮強烈批評此舉是侵略的前奏。當F-22“猛禽”戰(zhàn)斗機參加本月的空軍演練時，朝鮮表示，“戰(zhàn)爭的爆發(fā)”已成為一條“既定事實”。