FT社評：中國需要的債務(wù)平衡術(shù)

Why continue working when you are guaranteed a monthly income?” So asks Xu Yongan, a 55-year-old former steelworker from Anhui province and the recipient of an employee buyout. It may seem a bit puzzling that in China, the factory to the world, factory workers are paid to stay home. The solution to the puzzle — as to most puzzles about the Chinese economy — comes down to debt.

“如果你每個月都有收入，為什么還要工作?”許永安(音譯)這樣問。他現(xiàn)年55歲，來自安徽省，以前是一位鋼鐵工人，目前接受了一項提前退休補償安排。這似乎有些令人費解：在中國這個世界工廠，居然要出錢讓工人們別來上班。這一難題的解決方法——就像中國經(jīng)濟的大多數(shù)難題一樣——歸根結(jié)底在于債務(wù)。

The government worries that years of investment-led growth have left the country with a heavy debt burden and lots of excess industrial capacity. It was a government-led effort to shut inefficient factories that led to Mr Xu’s early retirement.

中國政府擔(dān)心，多年來靠投資拉動的經(jīng)濟增長導(dǎo)致中國債務(wù)負擔(dān)沉重、工業(yè)產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重過剩。導(dǎo)致許永安提前退休的，正是中國政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的關(guān)停低效工廠的行動。

That Chinese debt has grown to dangerous levels is beyond dispute. Non-financial sector debt has gone from $6tn in 2007 to nearly $29tn today, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements. The debt, equivalent to 260 per cent of gross domestic product, has brought with it dramatic declines in credit efficiency. The International Monetary Fund points out that in 2016 it took four units of credit to raise GDP by one unit. A decade ago the ratio was 1.3 to one.

中國的債務(wù)水平已上升到危險級別，這一點是無可爭議的。根據(jù)國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數(shù)據(jù)，中國非金融部門的債務(wù)已從2007年的6萬億美元上升到如今的近29萬億美元。這些債務(wù)相當(dāng)于中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的260%，帶來了信貸效率的大幅降低。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)指出，2016年中國需要4個單位的信貸才能實現(xiàn)1個單位的GDP增長。十年前，這個比例是1.3：1。

China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is not far from that of the US, for example. But, as Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, emphasised last month, China’s companies bear an extraordinary high portion of the burden. Corporate debt levels at 160 per cent of GDP make it the most leveraged corporate sector in the world.

中國的債務(wù)與GDP之比跟美國差得并不多。但就像中國央行行長周小川上個月強調(diào)的那樣，中國企業(yè)承擔(dān)的債務(wù)比例不同尋常地高。中國的企業(yè)部門是全世界杠桿率最高的：公司債務(wù)與GDP之比為160%。

A year ago the situation looked even less tenable than it does today. Since then, the efforts to rein in excess capacity seem to have had some effect. Commodity prices have firmed, helping the big state-supported industrial companies. Private company growth (particularly in technology, as exemplified by groups such as Alibaba and Tencent) have helped reduce overall leverage levels. If China is to grow its way out of its debt problems, these trends must continue. Another potentially helpful factor is rural growth: over the past decade, China has promoted the transfer of agricultural land usage rights among farmers, resulting in bigger farms, increased investment and higher returns. Data on the scale of such transfers is scarce but an online broker, tuliu.com, has transferred a cumulative 6.8m hectares since it started up in 2009.

比起當(dāng)下，一年前的形勢更不穩(wěn)定。自那時起，收縮過剩產(chǎn)能的舉措似乎取得了一定效果。大宗商品價格企穩(wěn)，對國家支持的大型工業(yè)企業(yè)有所幫助。私營企業(yè)的增長(特別是像阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和騰訊(Tencent)這樣的科技企業(yè))令整體杠桿水平有所降低。如果中國要靠增長擺脫債務(wù)問題，那么這些趨勢就必須持續(xù)下去。另一個潛在的有利因素是農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟的增長：在過去的十年中，中國一直推動農(nóng)用土地使用權(quán)在農(nóng)業(yè)人口間流轉(zhuǎn)，導(dǎo)致農(nóng)場規(guī)模擴大，投資增加，回報提升。有關(guān)這些流轉(zhuǎn)規(guī)模的數(shù)據(jù)很少，但提供線上中介服務(wù)的土流網(wǎng)(tuliu.com)自2009年上線以來，累計交易面積已達680萬公頃。

It reassures many China bulls that, due to its current account surplus and accompanying high savings rate, China has lent effectively all of the money to itself. But all the same, if the debtors cannot service their debts, a painful restructuring will be necessary. To avoid a crisis the government will have to tread carefully. The tentative withdrawal of credit from the economy is making the bond market jumpy. The central bank yesterday added more reserves into the financial system than it has in almost a year, to stem weakness in government bond prices. But liquidity injections are not a long-term solution to a debt problem. Neither is moving debt around by, for example, issuing asset-backed securities, which are increasingly popular in China.

這讓許多看好中國的人感到安心，由于經(jīng)常賬戶盈余并且儲蓄率高，中國所有的錢事實上都借給了自己。但如果債務(wù)人無法償還債務(wù)，艱難的重組依然是不可避免要面對的。為避免危機，中國政府必須謹慎行事。試探性從經(jīng)濟中收回貸款正讓債券市場戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢。為抑制政府債券價格的疲軟，中國央行昨天向金融系統(tǒng)注入資金，其規(guī)模為近一年來最大的一次。但流動性注入并不是解決債務(wù)問題的長久之計。拆東墻補西墻(例如在中國越來越流行的發(fā)行資產(chǎn)支持證券)同樣不能解決問題。

So the government must continue to move deliberately and hope the centre holds. It will need to stay disciplined about keeping a lid on loan growth, industrial capacity and — most importantly — the shadow banking system of dodgy fund companies, trusts, and wealth management products. Slow and steady progress these front, even if the economy does not grow as quickly as previously, will send a reassuring message to global investors, and minimise the chances that China’s debt addiction will require a more radical form of treatment.

所以中國政府必須小心行事，并寄希望于核心不倒。中國政府必須要嚴(yán)格恪守對貸款增長、工業(yè)產(chǎn)能及——最重要的——由可疑的基金公司、信托及理財產(chǎn)品構(gòu)成的影子銀行系統(tǒng)的限制。即使中國經(jīng)濟增長速度不及以往，在這些領(lǐng)域取得緩慢而穩(wěn)步的進展也會向全球的投資者們傳遞一個令人寬慰的信息，并將需要通過更激進療法才能讓中國戒除債務(wù)癮的可能性降到最低。