Lex專欄：中國(guó)煤炭需求的凜冬將至

Winter is the smoggiest season in China. The next few months will give commodity investors a chance to reassess whether the government is serious about curbing polluting industries. This year, coal-burning manufacturers and electrical utilities will be drafted in to help. This will hurt seaborne coal importers such as mining companies BHP Billiton or Anglo American.

冬季是中國(guó)霧霾最嚴(yán)重的季節(jié)。接下來的幾個(gè)月，大宗商品投資者將有機(jī)會(huì)看到，中國(guó)政府是不是當(dāng)真在遏制污染產(chǎn)業(yè)。那些消耗煤炭的制造業(yè)企業(yè)和電力公司今年也需出一分力。這將損及海運(yùn)煤炭出口商，例如必和必拓(BHP Billiton)或英美資源集團(tuán)(Anglo American)等礦業(yè)公司。

Domestic benchmark coal prices are a fifth above the range targeted by the National Development and Reform Commission. Prices doubled last November, when the government told miners to shut down for a quarter of the year. Similarly, production cuts in steel mills were strictly enforced — which boosted steel prices and margins for steelmakers. Aluminium followed suit.

中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)基準(zhǔn)煤價(jià)比國(guó)家發(fā)改委制定的目標(biāo)范圍高出了五分之一。去年11月煤價(jià)翻倍上漲，原因是政府要求煤礦在當(dāng)年停產(chǎn)一個(gè)季度的時(shí)間。同樣，鋼廠減產(chǎn)也得到了嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行，提高了鋼材價(jià)格以及鋼鐵企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)率。鋁隨后也出現(xiàn)了一樣的情況。

Given the impending capacity cuts at manufacturing plants, demand for electricity could be 4.5 per cent lower than the average during the four months from November to March, according to analysts at Liberum. China burns about 300m tons of coal in a winter heating season. The plants will require less of the black stuff to produce the diminished output.

Liberum的分析師認(rèn)為，鑒于制造業(yè)工廠將減產(chǎn)，今年11月至明年3月電力需求可能比平均水平低4.5%。中國(guó)在冬季采暖季節(jié)大約要燃燒3億噸煤炭。隨著工廠削減產(chǎn)量，它們需要的煤炭量也將減少。

If the corresponding demand reduction for electricity is borne by thermal coal power stations exclusively, total usage in the season could be a sixth lower than normal. On an annualised basis that gap is as large as all of China’s seaborne thermal coal imports.

如果電力需求減少的部分完全由燃煤發(fā)電廠承擔(dān)，那么冬季煤炭總用量可能會(huì)比正常情況低六分之一。若按年率計(jì)算，這一缺口相當(dāng)于中國(guó)海運(yùn)動(dòng)力煤進(jìn)口量。

Coal prices must ultimately take a hit. China’s efficiency drive in steel has already created victims. Lower-grade iron ore miner Fortescue, for example, has underperformed higher-quality peer BHP. The best steel mills in China have increased purchases of high-grade ore to maximise outputs. The lesson is that production cuts raise product prices first and hit demand for wasteful inputs later.

這最終會(huì)打擊到煤價(jià)。中國(guó)提高鋼鐵生產(chǎn)效率的舉措已經(jīng)催生了“受害者”。例如，較低品味鐵礦石生產(chǎn)商Fortescue的表現(xiàn)遜于礦石品位更高的同行必和必拓。中國(guó)各頂尖鋼鐵廠增加了高品位鐵礦石的采購(gòu)，以實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)量最大化。由此可知，減產(chǎn)首先會(huì)提高產(chǎn)品價(jià)格，之后會(huì)打擊浪費(fèi)性原材料的需求。

Investors need to brace for a new equilibria. Markets that China has oversupplied in the past may experience severe tightening. Scale producers in China, such as coal group Shenhua, should be relatively insulated. The outlook for foreign coal groups and traders in low-grade materials is chillier.

投資者需要準(zhǔn)備好迎接一種新的平衡。中國(guó)過去供過于求的市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)嚴(yán)重趨緊。中國(guó)的規(guī)模生產(chǎn)商所受的影響會(huì)相對(duì)較小，比如主要生產(chǎn)煤炭的神華集團(tuán)(Shenhua Group)。而外國(guó)煤炭集團(tuán)和低品味礦石交易商的前景就不太樂觀了。