中國經(jīng)濟反彈推高全球碳排放量

Stronger Chinese economic growth will push global greenhouse gas emissions to a record high in 2017 after remaining flat for three years, dashing tentative hopes of a turning point in the world’s efforts to curb climate change.

更強勁的中國經(jīng)濟增長將使全球溫室氣體排放量在連續(xù)三年持平后在2017年創(chuàng)下歷史新高，粉碎人們對于世界遏制氣候變化的努力已經(jīng)達到轉(zhuǎn)折點的初步希望。

A new report by the Global Carbon Project, an international research consortium, predicts that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry will rise 2 per cent this year. The report was released at the UN climate change meeting in Bonn on Monday.

國際研究聯(lián)盟“全球碳計劃”(Global Carbon Project)的一份新報告預(yù)測，今年化石燃料和工業(yè)活動產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳排放量將增長2%。這份報告是周一在波恩舉行的聯(lián)合國氣候變化會議上公布的。

The increase — which is largely caused by China and developing countries — suggests the world is straying further from the course set at the landmark UN conference in Paris two years ago. Countries agreed at the time to limit the rise in global temperatures to no more than 2ºC from the pre-industrial era. But scientists warn that the emission reduction pledges made by individual governments since then do not go far enough to secure that overarching goal.

主要由中國和發(fā)展中國家造成的這一增長似乎表明，世界正在進一步偏離兩年前在巴黎舉行的具有里程碑意義的聯(lián)合國會議上設(shè)定的路線。當(dāng)時各國同意將全球升溫幅度限制在不超過工業(yè)化之前水平2攝氏度的范圍。但是科學(xué)家們警告稱，自那以來各國政府作出的減排承諾不足以達到這個總體目標(biāo)。

“Emissions are following what countries have pledged — but what countries have pledged is nowhere near enough to meet the Paris objective,” said Glen Peters, co-author of the report and research director at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo.

“排放量符合各國的承諾，但是各國作出的承諾遠遠不足以達到巴黎會議的目標(biāo)，”報告聯(lián)名作者、奧斯陸國際氣候研究中心(Center for International Climate Research)研究主任戈蘭•彼得斯(Glen Peters)表示。

This year’s rise is especially disappointing as it follows three years of almost no growth in emissions despite a world economy expanding at a steady clip. In 2016, emissions were flat even though the world economy grew 3.2 per cent. One explanation for the uptick is that China’s economic slowdown in the middle part of this decade was more pronounced than official figures suggested.

今年的排放量增長特別令人失望，因為此前三年盡管世界經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)步擴張，但排放量幾乎沒有增長。2016年世界經(jīng)濟增長3.2%，而排放量持平。對排放增加的一個解釋是，中國在本10年中期的經(jīng)濟放緩要比官方數(shù)字所顯示的更為嚴(yán)重。

The GPC report concludes: “The world has not reached peak emissions yet.”

全球碳計劃的報告得出結(jié)論認(rèn)為：“世界尚未達到排放頂峰。”

It finds that carbon dioxide emissions decreased in 22 countries accounting for 20 per cent of global emissions, but rose in 101 countries that together represent 50 per cent of pollution. China is predicted to see a 3.5 per cent jump in emissions in 2017. As the biggest producer of carbon dioxide in the world, China plays a crucial role in shifting the global trend.

報告發(fā)現(xiàn)，占全球排放量20%的22個國家的二氧化碳排放量有所下降，而占污染總量50%的101個國家的二氧化碳排放量出現(xiàn)上升。預(yù)計中國2017年排放量將增加3.5%。作為世界最大的二氧化碳排放國，中國在改變?nèi)蜈厔莘矫姘缪葜陵P(guān)重要的角色。

Emissions began rising again in China this year, after the recovery in coal and steel prices last year heralded a more general economic revival.

今年中國的排放量又開始上升，此前煤炭和鋼鐵價格在去年出現(xiàn)反彈，預(yù)示了更為普遍的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇。

The Chinese recovery follows a four-year economic slump lasting from 2012 to 2016 in the provinces of the coal-intensive North China plain, and the surrounding resource-rich regions including China’s coal-dependent neighbour to the north, Mongolia. Although the slowdown devastated Mongolia’s economy, it was generally not reflected in China’s official economic data.

此輪復(fù)蘇出現(xiàn)之前，華北平原的煤炭大省，以及周邊的資源豐富地區(qū)(包括依賴煤炭的鄰國蒙古)在2012年至2016年經(jīng)歷了四年的經(jīng)濟低迷。這次低迷重創(chuàng)了蒙古經(jīng)濟，而從中國的官方經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)基本上看不出低迷。

The Financial Times has called into question provincial data across northern China during the period. Beijing has acknowledged that data were faked or inaccurate from Liaoning, an industrial province in the north-east, but has not revised its statistics from other problematic provinces.

在那幾年期間，英國《金融時報》曾對華北各省的數(shù)據(jù)提出質(zhì)疑。北京方面現(xiàn)已承認(rèn)東北工業(yè)大省遼寧的數(shù)據(jù)是虛報或不準(zhǔn)確的，但沒有修正其他有問題省份的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)。

The recent rise in China’s emissions adds weight to the idea that the officially unacknowledged economic slowdown translated into a flattening out of China’s carbon emissions, and therefore of the world’s. This is backed by flat or slightly lower production of coal, steel and cement during the period since 2012. Those industries contribute heavily to Chinese emissions of greenhouse gases.

近期中國排放量上升給一個觀點增添了份量，即之前是官方從未承認(rèn)的經(jīng)濟放緩使得中國乃至世界的碳排放量走平。2012年之后煤炭、鋼鐵和水泥產(chǎn)量持平或略微降低的情況支持這一觀點。那些行業(yè)在相當(dāng)大程度上加劇中國的溫室氣體排放。

Climate change negotiators had cheered the flattening of emissions, arguing that Chinese commitments to the Paris accord were responsible. However, the close correlation between Chinese emissions and economic activity in North China calls into question the argument that an authoritarian government can simply ordain improvement without outside oversight or the structural changes that reduce the incentives to pollute.

氣候變化談判代表曾為排放量走平叫好，辯稱中國對巴黎協(xié)定的承諾是負(fù)責(zé)任的。然而，中國的排放量與華北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟活動之間的密切關(guān)聯(lián)，令人質(zhì)疑這樣一個論點，即在沒有外部監(jiān)督、也沒有推行減少污染誘因的結(jié)構(gòu)性改變的情況下，一個威權(quán)政府能夠就這么簡單地下令實現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)。

As emissions output has increased, Beijing has launched an unprecedented round of inspections and shutdowns of polluting factories and steel mills in northern China. 隨著排放量增加，北京方面已在華北地區(qū)發(fā)起空前的督查行動，關(guān)停污染嚴(yán)重的工廠和鋼廠。

However, it has also bowed to the interests of its powerful coal industry by permitting heavily polluting coal conversion plants and switching some of its power generation capacity from coal to gas made from coal. This has the effect of spreading air pollution as well as unsustainably intensive water use from its wealthier eastern cities to its poorer inland and frontier provinces.

但是，官方也照顧強大的煤炭行業(yè)的利益，允許污染嚴(yán)重的煤轉(zhuǎn)化工廠繼續(xù)運行，并將一部分發(fā)電來源從煤炭轉(zhuǎn)向煤制天然氣。這產(chǎn)生了擴散空氣污染的影響，并且把不可持續(xù)的大量用水的做法從東部較富裕的城市傳播到較貧窮的內(nèi)陸和邊疆省份。

China’s commitment to the Paris accord anticipates that its emissions will continue to rise until about 2030, a projection derived from economic growth projections, the use of more hydropower dams and nuclear reactors, and assumptions that energy intensity will fall as the world’s largest economy matures.

根據(jù)中國對巴黎協(xié)定作出的承諾，中國的排放量將持續(xù)上升至2030年左右，這個預(yù)測基于經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)測、對更多水電站和核電站的使用，以及這樣一個假設(shè)，即隨著世界第二大經(jīng)濟體逐漸成熟，其能源強度將下降。