FT社評：美聯(lián)儲新主席應(yīng)保持政策連續(xù)性

Donald Trump, most of whose economic policy initiatives have achieved little to nothing, has made one of the most important decisions since his election. The US president has nominated Jay Powell as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.

以往大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)舉措都收效甚微的唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)，做出了自己當(dāng)選以來最重要的決策之一。這位美國總統(tǒng)已提名杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)為新一任美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)主席。

A preferable outcome, as the Financial Times has argued, would have been the reappointment of Janet Yellen, who has been Fed chair since 2014 after joining the board of governors in 2010.

英國《金融時報》已指出，更好的結(jié)果本應(yīng)是珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)繼續(xù)連任，耶倫2010年進(jìn)入美聯(lián)儲理事會，自2014年起出任美聯(lián)儲主席。

Rightly, Ms Yellen has broadly continued the approach of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, of being prepared to use unorthodox means to stimulate the economy. The Fed’s policy of withdrawing that stimulus is more debatable, but at least the move has been gradual thus far. Since he seems to represent continuity of approach, Mr Powell was the second-best choice of the candidates interviewed by Mr Trump.

耶倫正確地在大體上延續(xù)了其前任本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的政策，愿意用非常規(guī)手段刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。美聯(lián)儲退出刺激措施的政策更具爭議性，但至少到目前為止此舉是循序漸進(jìn)的。鮑威爾似乎代表了政策的延續(xù)，因此是特朗普面見的候選人中的第二佳人選。

He does come with two disadvantages. He has argued for financial deregulation, rolling back some of the post-global crisis clampdown on risky behaviour. Together with the views of Randal Quarles, the vice-chairman for bank supervision, the Fed seems likely to shift towards arguing for more lax rules for financial institutions. However, Mr Powell’s views on the subject are relatively nuanced and moderate. He has extensive experience in financial markets and is regarded as a pragmatist rather than an ideological deregulator.

鮑威爾的確有兩個劣勢。他一直主張放松金融管制，撤銷全球金融危機(jī)后對冒險行為的一些打壓。加上美聯(lián)儲負(fù)責(zé)金融監(jiān)管的副主席蘭德爾•夸爾斯(Randal Quarles)也提倡為銀行松綁，美聯(lián)儲似乎可能轉(zhuǎn)向支持為金融機(jī)構(gòu)制定更寬松的規(guī)則。然而，在這個問題上，鮑威爾的看法相對微妙而溫和。他在金融市場上經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富，并被認(rèn)為是個務(wù)實(shí)派，而不是一位空想的放松監(jiān)管支持者。

Second, the new chairman is a lawyer rather than an economist, and as such his judgments on economics will always be subject to question. The previous non-economist in the job was G William Miller, appointed by the president Jimmy Carter in 1978. Mr Miller, who lasted only just over a year, was a disaster, refusing to tighten monetary policy in the face of high inflation.

其次，這位美聯(lián)儲新主席是一名律師而不是一位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，因此他對經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的判斷總會受到質(zhì)疑。上一位非經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家出身的美聯(lián)儲主席是威廉•米勒(G.William Miller)，他在1978年被當(dāng)時的美國總統(tǒng)吉米•卡特(Jimmy Carter)任命。米勒僅當(dāng)了一年多美聯(lián)儲主席，那是一場災(zāi)難，面對高通脹他拒絕收緊貨幣政策。

Mr Powell is unlikely to be another Mr Miller. For one, he has solidly supported the Fed’s strategy of recent years: it would be a surprise if he suddenly took a radically hawkish turn. Second, the Fed’s open market committee has become a much more open place under Ms Yellen and Mr Bernanke, with more willingness to tolerate dissent than the Fed of Mr Bernanke’s predecessor, Alan Greenspan.

鮑威爾不太可能成為另一個米勒。第一，近年來他堅決支持美聯(lián)儲的策略：倘若他徹底轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樨泿耪啁椗?，那將是個意外。第二，在耶倫與伯南克的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，美聯(lián)儲的公開市場委員會已變得更加開放，比起伯南克的前任艾倫•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在位時，對異議的包容度也更高。

Accordingly, the potential for Mr Powell to ram through his own views is limited. Across Washington, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has overcome the drawback of being a lawyer. She has compensated for her own lack of expertise by consulting widely with the fund’s economists.

因此，鮑威爾強(qiáng)行推行自己想法的可能性不大。縱觀華盛頓，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)已經(jīng)克服了作為一名律師的短板。通過廣泛咨詢基金內(nèi)部的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，她彌補(bǔ)了自身專業(yè)知識的匱乏。

However, with a lawyer in the chair, the composition of the rest of the Fed board becomes unusually important. If Mr Trump surrounds Mr Powell with governors of a hawkish disposition, it may be harder for him to argue for easy monetary policy.

然而，當(dāng)一位律師擔(dān)任主席時，美聯(lián)儲理事會其他成員的構(gòu)成就變得異常重要。假如特朗普讓鮑威爾身邊環(huán)繞鷹派立場的理事，那鮑威爾可能更難推行寬松的貨幣政策。

In this context, it would be wise for Ms Yellen to continue as a governor even when her term as chair comes to an end in February next year. She has the right to retain her seat on the board until 2024. This would be unusual, but not unprecedented, and these are times when the need for wise counsel will be particularly important. If the US economy encounters another crisis and the need for extraordinary measures such as a fresh quantitative easing programme recurs, her experience and analysis would be highly valuable.

在這種形勢下，耶倫在明年2月結(jié)束主席任期后繼續(xù)擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲理事將是明智之舉。她有權(quán)將自己在美聯(lián)儲理事會的席位保留至2024年。這并不常見，但也并非史無前例，而且當(dāng)前的局面尤為需要明智的建議。如果美國經(jīng)濟(jì)遭遇另一場危機(jī)，同時又需要采取非常措施，如新一輪量化寬松計劃，耶倫的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和分析將非常有價值。

Mr Trump has made a reasonable, if not optimal, choice. The challenge now is for Mr Powell to hold the Fed’s existing, mainly sensible, line, that it should depart only gradually from the extraordinary monetary measures that have done so much to support the US economy for the past 10 years.

特朗普做出了一個合理的選擇，即使這不是最佳之選。鮑威爾現(xiàn)在面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是，維持美聯(lián)儲現(xiàn)有的、基本明智的路線，即只能逐步退出過去十年為支撐美國經(jīng)濟(jì)做出了巨大貢獻(xiàn)的非常貨幣措施。