德國(guó)大選：沉悶好于喧囂，但并不夠

Elections need not be exciting to be important. Germany is soon to go the polls. The rest of the world is stifling a yawn. Fans of politics-as-pandemonium are making a mistake. Europe is in better shape than for some time, but it can no longer assume its prosperity and security. Dull is just what is needed in the continent’s most powerful nation.

重要的選舉未必?zé)狒[。德國(guó)很快就要進(jìn)行大選投票了。除德國(guó)外整個(gè)世界都忍不住哈欠連連。希望看到政壇喧囂景象的人錯(cuò)了。歐洲目前的狀況比一段時(shí)間以來(lái)都要好，但它無(wú)法再將繁榮和安全當(dāng)作理所當(dāng)然的事情。沉悶正是這個(gè)歐洲最強(qiáng)大的國(guó)家所需要的。

For a temporary refugee from Britain’s Brexit convulsions, this week’s televised debate between chancellor Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz, her Social Democratic party challenger, was jarringly tame. The shock would have been greater for those in Washington accustomed to the histrionics fired daily from Donald Trump’s smartphone.

在一個(gè)暫時(shí)逃離了英國(guó)退歐動(dòng)蕩的人看來(lái)，本周德國(guó)總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)和來(lái)自社民黨(SDP)的挑戰(zhàn)者馬丁•舒爾茨(Martin Schulz)之間的電視辯論平和得令人震驚。在華盛頓那些習(xí)慣了唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)每天通過(guò)智能手機(jī)表演日常打嘴炮的人看來(lái)，這幅景象應(yīng)該更令人震驚。

Where were the personal abuse, the invented facts and casual lies? Had neither candidate seen Mr Trump take on Hillary Clinton or France’s Emmanuel Macron face the xenophobic invective of Marine Le Pen? Had they not heard British politicians lie about the vast riches that would flow from Brexit? Try as they might, Ms Merkel and Mr Schulz could not raise the temperature.What separates them politically is a gully rather than an ideological ravine.

人身攻擊、捏造事實(shí)和隨意編造的謊言去哪了?兩位候選人都沒(méi)見(jiàn)識(shí)過(guò)特朗普攻擊希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)或法國(guó)馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)對(duì)埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)的排外主義謾罵嗎?他們沒(méi)聽(tīng)過(guò)英國(guó)政客是如何謊稱(chēng)英國(guó)退歐可以帶來(lái)巨大財(cái)富嗎?不管默克爾和舒爾茨如何努力，他們也無(wú)法讓氣氛火熱起來(lái)。他們之間的政治分歧不是一條意識(shí)形態(tài)鴻溝，而只是一條小溪。

It adds nothing to the excitement quotient that polls predict Ms Merkel will be returned for a fourth term — quite possibly at the head of another coalition with Mr Schulz’s SPD. Germany has not been immune to the populism destabilising political elites across Europe. The nativist Alternative for Germany is doing its best to whip up Islamophobia in the wake of the 2015 migrant crisis. But it looks unlikely to garner much more than 10 per cent of the vote.

絲毫無(wú)助于增加此次德國(guó)大選興奮度的是，民調(diào)預(yù)測(cè)默克爾將贏得她的第四任期——非?？赡茴I(lǐng)導(dǎo)與舒爾茨的社民黨的又一次聯(lián)盟。民粹主義在歐洲各地撼動(dòng)政治精英階層，德國(guó)對(duì)民粹主義也并非免疫。在2015年移民危機(jī)后，本土主義政黨德國(guó)新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)正竭力煽動(dòng)伊斯蘭恐懼癥(Islamophobia)。但該政黨的得票似乎不太可能超過(guò)10%太多。

The middle-ground consensualism offends many outsiders. Voters, you hear critics say, are being denied a clear “choice”. But was not the postwar constitution, framed by the victors of 1945, designed to promote conciliation? In any event, there is another explanation for the absence of rage. Germany is prosperous and stable in a continent that recently has seemed anything but. The crises of the euro and migration have been contained. Germans, you could say, have already made their choice — they are content with things much as they are.

中間立場(chǎng)的共識(shí)主義(consensualism)惹惱了很多局外人。你可以聽(tīng)到批評(píng)人士稱(chēng)，選民被剝奪了做出明確“選擇”的權(quán)利。但1945年由戰(zhàn)勝國(guó)制定的戰(zhàn)后憲法不正是為了促進(jìn)調(diào)和嗎?無(wú)論如何，還有一個(gè)理由可以解釋德國(guó)為何不憤怒。德國(guó)繁榮而穩(wěn)定，而它所處的大陸近來(lái)與這兩個(gè)詞毫不沾邊。歐元危機(jī)和移民危機(jī)已經(jīng)得到了控制。你可以說(shuō)，德國(guó)人已經(jīng)做出了選擇——他們對(duì)現(xiàn)狀基本滿意。

Those who like noise for its own sake should look at Britain. There the political alternatives are now represented by a ruling party obsessed with the destructive endeavour of wrenching Britain from its own continent and by a far left opposition leader wrapped in nostalgia for Soviet era socialism. The choice between the Conservative prime minister Theresa May and Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn is not one to be wished on anyone else.

那些單純喜歡熱鬧的人應(yīng)該看看英國(guó)。眼下的英國(guó)政壇提供給選民兩個(gè)選擇，一個(gè)是執(zhí)著于退歐這項(xiàng)毀滅性事業(yè)的執(zhí)政黨，另一個(gè)是懷念蘇聯(lián)時(shí)代社會(huì)主義的極左翼反對(duì)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。在保守黨首相特里薩•梅(Theresa May)和工黨領(lǐng)袖杰里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)之間二選一，這個(gè)選擇不會(huì)是任何人想要的。

What marks out Ms Merkel is not just her longevity (she has broken her promise not to make Helmut Kohl’s mistake of running for a fourth term), but her unabashed support for the open, liberal international order. When others went running to Washington to pay homage to Mr Trump after his election victory, Ms Merkel was studiously insistent she would deal with the new president on her own terms. Her Atlanticism is unquestionable, but not unconditional.

令默克爾與眾不同的并不只是她的超長(zhǎng)任期(她打破了自己的如下承諾，即不會(huì)犯赫爾穆特•科爾(Helmut Kohl)的錯(cuò)誤、競(jìng)選第四任期)，而是她不加掩飾地支持開(kāi)放自由的國(guó)際秩序。當(dāng)其他人在特朗普勝選后競(jìng)相前往華盛頓向他效忠之際，默克爾故意堅(jiān)持照自己的想法與這位新總統(tǒng)打交道。她堅(jiān)持大西洋主義，這是毋庸置疑的，但并不是無(wú)條件地堅(jiān)持。

The threats speak for themselves. Vladimir Putin’s Russia wants to remake Europe’s territorial boundaries. Mr Trump is at once an unreliable and combustible ally. Britain has walked off the foreign policy field. French president Emmanuel Macron has yet to prove himself. Italy’s fractured politics are strained by rising migrant flows from North Africa. Poland and Hungary bank hefty cheques from the EU while disowning its liberal values.

威脅不言自明。弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的俄羅斯希望重新劃定歐洲邊界。同時(shí)，特朗普是既靠不住又易激動(dòng)的盟友。英國(guó)離開(kāi)了外交政策舞臺(tái)。法國(guó)總統(tǒng)埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍尚未證明自己。意大利支離破碎的政治正承受著北非移民日益增多的壓力。波蘭和匈牙利不斷從歐盟手中接過(guò)高額支票，同時(shí)拒不接受歐盟的自由主義價(jià)值觀。

For the moment a steady Germany is what Europe has left in terms of a nation willing to stand up for the norms and institutions of the postwar order.

此時(shí)，穩(wěn)定的德國(guó)是歐洲僅存的愿意捍衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)后秩序準(zhǔn)則和制度的國(guó)家。

Mr Trump’s belligerent nationalism and Britain’s break with Europe have torn the fabric of the west. The German chancellor is not giving up. Her commitments to freedom, the rule of law and democratic institutions are rooted in 35 years spent in the communist east. As the journalist Stefan Kornelius observes in an excellent biography, Ms Merkel knows that the liberal democracy that has assured Europe of peace and prosperity is not “a law of nature”.

特朗普?qǐng)?jiān)持好斗的民族主義以及英國(guó)與歐盟分道揚(yáng)鑣，這兩件事撕裂了西方。德國(guó)總理默克爾并未放棄。她對(duì)自由、法治和民主制度的堅(jiān)守來(lái)源于她在共產(chǎn)主義東德生活的35年。正如記者斯特凡•科內(nèi)柳斯(Stefan Kornelius)在一本出色的傳記中所說(shuō)的那樣，默克爾知道，確保歐洲和平和繁榮的自由民主并不是“自然規(guī)律”。

The chancellor is no saint. There is national self-interest at stake. Germany has been a big winner from the rules-based system and from economic globalisation. Business and exports have thrived as successive governments have sheltered under America’s security umbrella and eschewed international responsibilities beyond Europe. Ms Merkel seems to understand that the days of free-riding are over. She has made rebuilding the Franco-German relationship a priority and has added to the defence budget. And yet there is still a conscious timidity. She talks about such things to voters only in the vaguest terms.

默克爾不是圣人。她考慮的是是德國(guó)自己的利益。德國(guó)大大受益于基于規(guī)則的體系和經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化。德國(guó)歷屆政府都在美國(guó)的安全傘下得到庇護(hù)、并逃避了歐洲以外的國(guó)際責(zé)任，在這種情況下，德國(guó)商業(yè)和出口一直繁榮發(fā)展。默克爾似乎知道搭便車(chē)的好日子已經(jīng)結(jié)束了。她把重塑法德關(guān)系作為重中之重，并且增加了國(guó)防預(yù)算。但她仍然有意識(shí)地羞怯。她只用最含糊的言語(yǔ)向選民談起這些問(wèn)題。

Circumstance — Mr Putin’s land grab of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine, and the flood of refugees from the Syrian civil war — have forced the chancellor to act. But leadership on the global stage is not something sought or welcomed by the electorate. The further you travel from Berlin, the more reluctant voters are to admit that Germany can no longer hide behind its history. Dull is good, especially when it substitutes for mendacity. But it is not enough. What has been missing in the campaign is a serious discussion of the international role Germany can no longer avoid.

普京強(qiáng)占克里米亞并入侵烏克蘭東部、敘利亞內(nèi)戰(zhàn)導(dǎo)致大量難民涌入歐洲，這些情況迫使默克爾采取行動(dòng)。但德國(guó)選民并不希望、也不愿意德國(guó)在全球舞臺(tái)上發(fā)揮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用。距離柏林越遠(yuǎn)的選民，越不愿意承認(rèn)德國(guó)再也無(wú)法以歷史為借口逃避責(zé)任。沉悶是好的，尤其是跟謊言相比。但僅有沉悶是不夠的。此次競(jìng)選所缺失的，正是有關(guān)德國(guó)無(wú)法再逃避其國(guó)際角色的認(rèn)真討論。

The writer at present is a Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow of the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin

本文作者目前是柏林羅伯特•博世基金會(huì)(Robert Bosch Academy)理查德•馮•魏茨澤克(Richard von Weizsäcker)研究員