Lex專欄：中國(guó)銀行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低

Who’s hot and who’s not? The Chinese Communist party is set to find out in a leadership reshuffle next month. Chinese regulators are already sorting sheep from goats. The result, according to a report from Fitch, is a financial system that is broadly safer, but where risks are steep among smaller lenders.

誰(shuí)是熱門人物，誰(shuí)不是?中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨將在下月的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層換屆中找到答案。中國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)開始區(qū)分良莠。根據(jù)惠譽(yù)(Fitch)的一份報(bào)告，其結(jié)果是金融體系在總體上更安全，但規(guī)模較小的銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高。

The authorities are making progress in curbing risky short-term funding. Fitch found the outstanding balance of such loans has fallen for the first time in 10 years. The share of issuance with maturities of up to three months has declined to 49 per cent of the total. But smaller banks and finance groups are becoming increasingly reliant on this form of financing.

在限制高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)短期融資方面，當(dāng)局正取得進(jìn)展?；葑u(yù)發(fā)現(xiàn)，這類貸款的未償付余額10年來(lái)首次下降。期限在3個(gè)月以內(nèi)的貸款發(fā)放額在總額中所占比例降至49%。但規(guī)模較小的銀行和金融集團(tuán)正日益依賴這種融資形式。

Mid-tier lenders get 43 per cent of their funding from short-term sources; big state-owned banks receive only one-fifth. Demand for deposits has been strong because credit growth has outstripped gross domestic product. The ratio of deposits to loans has declined 9 per cent to 61 per cent since the end of 2013.

中等規(guī)模的銀行43%的資金來(lái)自短期來(lái)源;而大型國(guó)有銀行只有五分之一的資金來(lái)自這類來(lái)源。對(duì)存款的需求很強(qiáng)勁，因?yàn)樾刨J增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)了國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的增長(zhǎng)。自2013年底以來(lái)，存款與貸款之比下降了9%，至61%。

State-backed money has helped ease the pressure as regulators start cleaning up grubbier corners of the system. Loans to Chinese banks from the People’s Bank of China quintupled to Rmb9tn ($1.4tn) in the three years to July. Non-bank financial institutions and big state banks, such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with its large rural deposit basis, have also injected liquidity.

在監(jiān)管層開始清理體系中比較陰暗的角落之際，政府支持的資金紓解了壓力。在截至7月的3年里，中國(guó)人民銀行(PBoC)給國(guó)內(nèi)銀行的貸款增長(zhǎng)了4倍，達(dá)到9萬(wàn)億元人民幣(合1.4萬(wàn)億美元)。非銀行金融機(jī)構(gòu)和大型國(guó)有銀行，如中國(guó)工商銀行(ICBC)，也注入了流動(dòng)性。

Analysts at UBS reckon banks in the north-east, with its heavy industrial base, could be most affected by rule changes. Foreign investors are unlikely to lose much sleep: riskier lenders such as Shengjing Bank and Baoshang Bank are hardly household names.

瑞銀(UBS)的分析師們認(rèn)為，中國(guó)東北地區(qū)的銀行，連同其重工業(yè)客戶根基，可能受規(guī)則變化的影響最大。外國(guó)的投資者們也許不會(huì)太擔(dān)心：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的銀行，如盛京銀行(Shengjing Bank)和包商銀行(Baoshang Bank)都不是很有名。

Prophets of a Chinese banking crisis have been wrong, so far. Lenders are supported by strong deposits and an agile central bank. At a pinch, reserve requirements of 17 per cent of deposits could be lowered if liquidity falters. But the clean-up is delivering the same message to smaller lenders some unhappy party cadres will receive next month: you are the weakest link.

目前看來(lái)，關(guān)于中國(guó)銀行業(yè)危機(jī)的那些預(yù)言是錯(cuò)誤的。銀行得到雄厚存款和一個(gè)機(jī)敏的央行的支持。必要時(shí)，如果流動(dòng)性出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題，17%的存款準(zhǔn)備金率可以下調(diào)。但清理工作向較小銀行傳遞的信息，也是一些郁悶的黨政干部下月會(huì)收到的信息：你是最薄弱的環(huán)節(jié)。