中國消費者購買力日益增強

Rahul Chadha, co-chief investment officer for Hong Kong-based Mirae Asset Global Investments, has a few charts he is particularly fond of when it comes to telling a story about investing in China.

在講述在華投資的故事時，有幾張圖表是總部位于香港的未來資產(chǎn)(Mirae Asset Global Investments)的聯(lián)合首席投資官拉胡爾•查達(Rahul Chadha)特別喜歡的。

One shows income growth in China. Based on the current rate of expansion, he expects the world’s second-biggest economy will achieve high income status — defined as income of almost $12,500 per capita — in eight years.

一張顯示了中國的收入增速。他預測，根據(jù)目前的增長速度，世界第二大經(jīng)濟體將在8年后達到高收入級別，人均收入達到近1.25萬美元。

The second shows a ratio of household debt to gross domestic product for a number of countries. For thrifty mainland China households, the ratio is 28 per cent. That compares to India at one end of the scale at 15 per cent and the UK at the other with 90 per cent.

第二張圖表顯示了多個國家的家庭債務與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)之比。對于節(jié)儉的中國內(nèi)地家庭而言，這個比率為28%。最低比率為印度(15%)，最高為英國(90%)。

So, based on their income and potential to borrow, the Chinese have spending power and the potential to increase it. The growing muscle of Chinese consumers is not, of course, a new investment theme when it comes to Asia.

因此，根據(jù)收入和借款潛力，中國人擁有購買力，以及增加購買力的潛力。當然，就亞洲而言，中國消費者的底氣日益增強并非一個新的投資主題。

But at a time when wage growth is muted in other large economies, such as the US and the eurozone, the situation in China is surprisingly overlooked rather than celebrated.

但是，在其他大型經(jīng)濟體(例如美國和歐元區(qū))薪資增速放緩之際，中國的情況被人忽視，而沒有得到歡呼，這一點令人意外。

Disposable income per household in China rose 7.3 per cent in real terms in the first half of this year. That surpasses the 6.9 per cent pace at which the economy expanded in the period.

今年上半年，中國家庭實際可支配收入增長7.3%，超過了同期經(jīng)濟擴張速度(6.9%)。

Moreover, the number of jobs created in urban areas came in at 8.55m in the first seven months of 2017, according to data from JPMorgan, not too far from the year-end target of 11m. In sharp contrast, India is generating roughly 1m jobs a year at a time when it needs to fashion 10 times more to absorb the youth streaming in from the countryside in search of a better living.

另外，根據(jù)摩根大通(JPMorgan)的數(shù)據(jù)，今年頭7個月，中國城鎮(zhèn)的新增就業(yè)為855萬，距離全年1100萬的目標不是太遠。與此形成鮮明對比的是，印度每年的新增就業(yè)約為100萬，而該國需要把這個數(shù)字增加10倍，才能吸收從農(nóng)村到城市尋找更美好生活的年輕人。

It’s not just the level of income that is improving in China. Its distribution is too. The government is spending more on a social safety net, and provides more by way of pensions and medicines, including medical care and education.

在中國，不只是收入水平得到改善。收入分配也在改善。政府的社保支出在增加，通過養(yǎng)老金、醫(yī)療和教育來分配更多經(jīng)濟果實。

“In a way this is catch up,” Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan, says of the income growth in China. “In a way it reflects the fact that the working age population is declining. But for the past 10 years income is going up for the majority of people steadily and gradually.”

“從某種程度來說，這是在追趕，”摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席中國經(jīng)濟學家朱海斌在談到中國的收入增長時表示，“從某種程度上，這反映出工作年齡人口在減少。但過去10年，大多數(shù)人的收入在逐漸而穩(wěn)步地上漲。”

It’s an especially notable achievement given that some of the other forces at work in the Chines economy are far from helpful. The expansion of the sharing economy and ever growing role of technology across most sectors is ultimately deflationary. Automation is increasingly displacing manufacturing jobs. At the same time, sophisticated computers are now eliminating low end service jobs.

鑒于中國經(jīng)濟中的其他一些因素并不是那么有利，這一成就尤其引人注目。共享經(jīng)濟的擴張以及多數(shù)行業(yè)中科技的作用日益增強，最終將產(chǎn)生通縮影響。自動化正越來越多地取代制造業(yè)崗位。同時，先進的電腦現(xiàn)在開始淘汰低端服務業(yè)崗位。

As investors survey the effects of income growth, it is the new economy, with its emphasis on services and consumption, and private companies in it, that are the beneficiaries as they cater to the appetites of a growing middle class.

在投資者審視收入增長的影響時，注重服務和消費的新經(jīng)濟以及該板塊的民營企業(yè)成為受益者，因為它們滿足日益壯大的中產(chǎn)階層的需求。

Mr Chadha, for example, is a fan of companies such as Ctrip, an online travel app, healthcare, insurers such as Ping An, (rather than the state owned behemoths) and internet and ecommerce firms. Ctrip for example has 75 per cent market share in online travel.

例如，查達鐘愛在線旅游應用攜程(Ctrip)等公司、醫(yī)療公司、平安等保險公司(而非國有保險巨擘)以及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和電商集團。例如，攜程占據(jù)了在線旅游市場75%的份額。

These trends carry risks — and the biggest lies in Beijing. The government expects the rapidly growing, but still insecure, icons of the new economy to do their national service alongside state-owned enterprises.

這些趨勢帶有風險，最大的風險在于中國政府。中國政府期望快速增長但仍無保障的新經(jīng)濟偶像與國有企業(yè)一道為國家效力。

That was evident a few weeks ago when Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent Holdings all wrote cheques to telecoms company Unicom and China Life as part of a plan to diversify the ownership of the state owned groups.

幾周前，這一點很明顯，當時阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、百度(Baidu)和騰訊(Tencent)都認購了聯(lián)通(Unicom)和中國人壽(China Life)的股份，作為國有集團所有權(quán)多元化計劃的一部分。

So far authorities in Beijing have been judicious in how they lean on these fast-growing, disruptive companies and, more broadly, how they leverage the private sector generally.

迄今為止，對于如何依賴這些迅速增長的顛覆性企業(yè)以及(在更廣義的層面)如何利用民營領域，中國官方還是比較有分寸的。

As household incomes continue to grow, investors must hope that Beijing’s attitude to the companies of the new economy remains relatively benign.

隨著家庭收入持續(xù)增長，投資者肯定希望中國政府對新經(jīng)濟公司的態(tài)度保持相對仁慈。