優(yōu)步Elevate能起飛嗎？

As a company Uber is an acquired taste — people love it or hate it, or sometimes both. But it has certainly proved to be an effective disruptor of the business of urban transportation in cities across the world, damaging or destroying old business models and reducing consumer costs by forcing down wages. That’s why their latest initiative, however whacky it sounds, has to be taken seriously.

作為一家公司，優(yōu)步(Uber)有點像“后天養(yǎng)成的品味”：人們要么愛它，要么恨它，要么愛恨交織。但事實證明，它肯定是一種有效顛覆全球城市交通的工具，打擊甚至摧毀舊的商業(yè)模式，并通過壓低薪資來降低消費者的成本。這就是為何他們的最新舉措(不管聽上去是多么怪誕)必須被認(rèn)真對待的原因。

Uber Elevate takes the concept of personal mobility to a new level, to be precise several hundred feet above the earth. The aim is to develop vehicles (perhaps best described as very small aircraft) that marry the established technology of vertical take-off and landing with the rapidly advancing technology of a new generation of batteries. The vehicles would be designed to transport individuals over the distance, say, from an out-of-town airport into the city centre. Imagine that in London or New York. The limit to the distance is set by the capacity of the aircraft’s battery, so could in theory be expanded. A journey from JFK to New Haven or from Heathrow to Cambridge would not be impossible.

Uber Elevate將個人移動性的概念提升到一個新的水平，確切地說是地球表面以上幾百英尺的地方。目的是開發(fā)將現(xiàn)有的垂直起降技術(shù)與快速發(fā)展的新一代電池技術(shù)結(jié)合在一起的汽車(或許把它描述為非常小型的飛行器最合適)。這些飛行車將把人類從郊外的機(jī)場送到市中心。想象以下在倫敦或紐約有這樣的服務(wù)吧。距離的限度由飛行車的電池容量決定，因此從理論上來說是可以延長的。從肯尼迪機(jī)場(JFK)飛到康涅狄格州的紐黑文(New Haven)，或者從希斯羅機(jī)場(Heathrow)飛到劍橋，將不是不可能的。

As Uber make clear in its published material, there are challenges to this concept. Safety and certification are crucial but would be helped by the fact that the “planes” would not have rotor blades — a source of problems for many helicopters.

正如優(yōu)步在其公開的資料中明確提出的那樣，這個概念面臨挑戰(zhàn)。安全和認(rèn)證至關(guān)重要，但優(yōu)點是這些“飛機(jī)”沒有旋翼葉片，旋翼葉片是很多直升機(jī)的問題來源。

Urban noise controls would have to be met but fully electric propulsion should help there. The planes should also be small enough to take off and land from dedicated buildings — the Uber brochure shows them on the top of a car park. Battery capacity requires a breakthrough. As things stand, the amount of energy per unit of weight is insufficient to sustain the power necessary for long-distance commuting and recharging times are too long. But on both counts research is well advanced with a partnership between Uber and Aurora Flight Services announced at the Elevate summit in Dallas at the end of April.

必須遵守城市噪音控制的要求，但完全電動的推進(jìn)器應(yīng)有所幫助。這些飛行車還應(yīng)足夠小，以便從指定的大樓上起落，優(yōu)步的宣傳資料顯示這些飛行車在一棟車庫樓頂。電池容量需要突破。目前來看，單位重量的能量不足以支撐遠(yuǎn)距離通勤所需要的電量，而且充電時間太長。但在這兩方面，優(yōu)步和Aurora Flight Services的合作讓相關(guān)研究非常深入，雙方的合作是4月底在達(dá)拉斯的Elevate峰會上公布的。

Of course, this is not a cheap means of travel. Uber Elevate would be an elite product, at least to begin with, even with ride sharing as part of the model. The company accepts that but hopes volumes would rise over time with mass manufacturing for a global market reducing unit costs to the point where they would be competitive with ordinary cars.

當(dāng)然，這并非一種廉價的出行方式。Uber Elevate將是一種精英產(chǎn)品，至少最初如此，盡管“拼車”是該模式的一部分。優(yōu)步承認(rèn)這點，但希望規(guī)模逐漸擴(kuò)大，全球大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)把單位成本降低到可以與普通汽車競爭的水平。

The issue not addressed in the Uber document is security. In the current climate it seems unlikely that any urban transport authority would allow aircraft access to low-level airspace.

優(yōu)步宣傳資料中沒有提到安全問題。在當(dāng)前氣氛下，任何一個城市交通管理部門都不太可能允許飛機(jī)在市區(qū)低空飛行。

The value of such a form of transportation could be immense. Urban congestion is one of the world’s unresolved problems, as is air quality. More and more people are working in cities — the global figure from the UN is that about 54 per cent of the world’s population is now urbanised against around a third 40 years ago. In another two decades that figure is set to rise towards 60 per cent. Public transport is gradually improving but it is also getting busier. As urban housing costs rise more workers are forced to live further from their jobs and to commute longer distances — at enormous cost in terms of wasted time and stress. According to Uber, commuters in San Francisco typically spend 230 hours in traffic each year. In Mumbai the typical commute is 90 minutes each way.

這種交通形式的意義可能是重大的。城市擁堵是全球未解決問題之一，就像空氣質(zhì)量一樣。越來越多的人在城市工作，來自聯(lián)合國(UN)的全球數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球約54%的人口在城市居住，而40年前大約為三分之一。再過20年，這個數(shù)字將逼近60%。公共交通正逐漸改善，但正變得更為繁忙。隨著城市住房成本上升，更多的員工被迫居住在距離工作單位更遠(yuǎn)的地方，通勤距離變得更長——從浪費的時間和壓力來看，這是一項巨大的成本。根據(jù)優(yōu)步的數(shù)據(jù)，舊金山的通勤者一般每年花在交通上的時間為230小時。在孟買，一般的通勤時間為每段行程90分鐘。

I don’t know if Uber’s plans can succeed. The mental picture of individuals flying brings to my mind the science fiction of HG Wells — readers will do doubt tell me the idea is older. But many of the things Wells and others wrote about have been translated from pure fiction into reality. So, suspending disbelief, consider for a moment the potential impact of Uber Elevate or any of the comparable ideas being developed by a dozen other companies.

我不知道優(yōu)步的計劃能否成功。個人飛行讓我想起HG•威爾斯(HG Wells)的科幻作品中的畫面，讀者們肯定會告訴我，這個構(gòu)想的歷史更久遠(yuǎn)。但威爾斯和其他人當(dāng)年描寫的其他很多東西，已經(jīng)從純科幻變?yōu)榱爽F(xiàn)實。因此，暫時拋棄不信任吧，考慮一下Uber Elevate或另外10多家公司正在開發(fā)的類似構(gòu)想的潛在影響吧。

First, the need for additional conventional infrastructure — such as hugely expensive high speed rail links —would be diminished. Airports could be located further away from cities, reducing noise pollution and opening different patterns of regional development. And both business and housing markets would shift if new transport options changed the economics of locations.

首先，建設(shè)更多傳統(tǒng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的必要性將降低，例如造價極其高昂的高速鐵路。機(jī)場可以建在距離城市更遠(yuǎn)的地方，這將減少噪音污染，開啟不同的區(qū)域發(fā)展模式。如果新的交通選擇改變了有關(guān)地理位置的經(jīng)濟(jì)考慮，那么商業(yè)和住房市場都將發(fā)生變化。

It is easy to laugh at Uber Elevate but it is a reminder of how unsatisfactory the current urban transport situation has become. Great cities are being destroyed by congestion. Even with the gradual move to cleaner fuels air quality in many cities is awful and in some, especially in the developing world, a major health risk and a very live political issue. Last year’s powerful report from the International Energy Agency quoted an estimate of 6m premature deaths each year as a result of air pollution.

我們很容易去嘲笑Uber Elevate，但它提醒我們當(dāng)前的城市交通狀況是多么的令人不滿。大城市正因為擁堵而遭到破壞。盡管我們正逐漸采用更清潔的燃料，但很多城市的空氣質(zhì)量很糟糕，在一些城市，特別是在發(fā)展中國家，它成了一大健康風(fēng)險和受到關(guān)注的政治議題。去年，國際能源署(IEA)的一份強(qiáng)有力的報告援引數(shù)據(jù)稱，據(jù)估計，空氣污染每年造成600萬人過早死亡。

In cities like London cycle routes are fine, although the combination of cycles, cars and lorries on the same roads creates risks of its own. Congestion charges and road pricing are good ideas in theory but are often regressive and penalise those with no alternative means of travel. Without major change these problems will become more serious as urban populations grow.

在倫敦等城市，自行車道確實不錯，但自行車、汽車和貨車在同一路面通行制造了危險。從理論上來說，擁堵費和道路收費是好辦法，但往往對窮人造成更大的影響，尤其是懲罰那些沒有其他出行方式的人。如果不進(jìn)行重大改革，這些問題將隨著城市人口的增加變得更嚴(yán)重。

The energy business is not just about the supply side. How energy is used also matters. Any company that can solve or mitigate the challenges of urban transportation will do very well. Uber may or not have the right answer — but at least it is trying.

能源并非只是關(guān)乎供應(yīng)面。如何利用能源也很重要。任何一家能夠解決或緩解城市交通挑戰(zhàn)的公司都會很成功。優(yōu)步可能有——也可能沒有——正確的答案，但至少它在努力。

Nick Butler is Visiting Professor and Chair of the Kings Policy Institute at Kings College London.

本文作者是倫敦大學(xué)國王學(xué)院(King's College London)國王政策研究所(Kings Policy Institute)訪問教授和主席