民生銀行的大股東包袱

There are lots of reasons to be pessimistic about the prospects for China Minsheng Bank.

有很多理由讓人對(duì)中國(guó)民生銀行(China Minsheng Bank)的前景感到悲觀。

Some of them are fundamental, the sort of universal issues that portend weakness and therefore downside risk for investors. Crucially for the bank, there is a complex mix of finance and politics, given that several of Minsheng’s large shareholders have fallen foul of China’s crackdown on companies that have borrowed large amounts of money to finance a wave of foreign investments.

一部分理由是基本面上的，民生銀行存在那種預(yù)示著疲弱前景、因而將使投資者面臨股價(jià)下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一般性問(wèn)題。最要緊的是，民生銀行還面臨一個(gè)牽扯到財(cái)務(wù)和政治兩方面的復(fù)雜問(wèn)題：中國(guó)正對(duì)一些通過(guò)大舉借貸接二連三地投資海外的公司發(fā)起打擊行動(dòng)，而民生銀行的若干大股東就撞到了槍口上。

The likes of Anbang Insurance, Fosun, Dalian Wanda and HNA Group have infuriated regulators with their lack of financial prudence, their excess borrowing, and their investments abroad at a time when authorities are trying to limit capital outflows. Unfortunately for Minsheng, it has close ties with two of the four companies that are targeted: Anbang and Fosun.

安邦保險(xiǎn)(Anbang Insurance)、復(fù)星(Fosun)、大連萬(wàn)達(dá)(Dalian Wanda)和海航集團(tuán)(HNA Group)等公司因缺乏財(cái)務(wù)審慎、過(guò)度舉債，并且在當(dāng)局竭力限制資本外流時(shí)還投資海外，激怒了監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)。不幸的是，民生銀行與這四家被監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)當(dāng)作目標(biāo)的公司中的兩家關(guān)系密切，就是安邦和復(fù)星。

For investors like Wang Qiang, the chief investment officer of Pinpoint Asset Management in Shanghai, Minsheng has become a proxy for Beijing’s war against several privately owned enterprises that have flouted its wishes.

對(duì)于像上海保銀投資管理有限公司(Pinpoint Asset Management)首席投資官王強(qiáng)這樣的投資人來(lái)說(shuō)，在北京打擊數(shù)家無(wú)視其愿望的私人企業(yè)的行動(dòng)中，民生銀行跟著遭受了池魚(yú)之殃。

That is why one of his favourite trades involves buying China Merchants Bank, another joint stock bank, while selling Minsheng. Indeed, while shares in Minsheng have dropped nearly 4 per cent this year, those of China Merchants Bank have surged 46 per cent.

所以他現(xiàn)在最喜歡做的交易之一是買進(jìn)另一家股份制銀行招商銀行(China Merchants Bank)的股票，同時(shí)賣出民生銀行股票。事實(shí)上，今年以來(lái)，民生銀行股價(jià)跌了將近4%，而招商銀行股價(jià)則大漲了46%。

As one of China’s second tier joint stock banks, as opposed to the Big Four state-owned banks such as ICBC, Minsheng looks vulnerable on both financial and political counts, given its parentage, which today has potentially become its biggest liability.

作為中國(guó)第二梯隊(duì)的股份制銀行——相對(duì)于工行等“四大”國(guó)有銀行來(lái)講——之一，民生銀行無(wú)論在財(cái)務(wù)上還是在政治方面都顯得脆弱，“家世”很可能已成為它最大的包袱。

Four units of Anbang, the insurer founded by Wu Xiao Hui, who has been detained by the authorities in Beijing, are among the bank’s largest shareholders, and control over 15.5 per cent of the shares, its first quarter report states. Meanwhile Yao Dafeng, a director and vice-president of the Anbang parent, Anbang Insurance Group, has been a non-executive director of Minsheng since 2014, according to the 2016 annual report.

根據(jù)民生銀行今年第一季度的財(cái)報(bào)，三家安邦系公司位居該行前十大股東之列，合計(jì)持有逾15.5%股份。另外，根據(jù)民生銀行2016年財(cái)報(bào)，安邦保險(xiǎn)集團(tuán)董事、副總經(jīng)理姚大鋒自2014年起一直擔(dān)任該行非執(zhí)行董事。安邦保險(xiǎn)集團(tuán)的創(chuàng)始人吳小暉不久前在北京被有關(guān)部門(mén)帶走。

At the same time, a second of the gang of four firms, Fosun was a big shareholder as well, holding 11.6 per cent of the Hong Kong-listed shares of Minsheng until earlier this year, and its founder Guo Guangchang sat on the board. Fosun now holds about 1.5 per cent of the Hong Kong-listed shares in Minsheng.

復(fù)星也曾是民生銀行的大股東之一，在今年早些時(shí)候還持有該行H股的11.6%，創(chuàng)始人郭廣昌也曾是該行董事。目前復(fù)星大約持有民生銀行H股的1.5%。

Anbang’s shares are of concern and the prospect of a forced sale of those shares is one reason they have underperformed relative to their peers. What the fate of companies like Anbang will be and what will happen with their extensive assets both at home and abroad is unclear. Today, Anbang is under the close scrutiny of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, which is considering what to do about the insurer’s assets such as its stake in Minsheng, according to several people familiar with the situation.

安邦持有的民生股份受到關(guān)注，那些股份可能被迫出售，這是民生銀行跑輸同類股票的一個(gè)原因。像安邦這樣的公司會(huì)有什么樣的命運(yùn)、它們?cè)诤?nèi)外的眾多資產(chǎn)會(huì)發(fā)生什么變數(shù)，目前不得而知。如今中國(guó)保監(jiān)會(huì)(CIRC)正在緊盯著安邦，一些知情人士透露，保監(jiān)會(huì)正在考慮要怎么處理該保險(xiǎn)集團(tuán)的資產(chǎn)，比如它在民生銀行持有的股份。

Minsheng declined to comment on investor worries or about any recent changes in its shareholding.

民生銀行拒絕就投資者顧慮的問(wèn)題或近期其股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)的變更發(fā)表評(píng)論。

If the bank’s fundamentals were better, all this would not matter much. But Minsheng’s fundamentals are less solid than those of almost all of its counterparts. “We think the bank’s current valuation can’t be justified given its weak capital position, vulnerable liquidity profile and large shadow banking book which is increasingly at risk with regulatory crackdowns,” note analysts at Sanford C Bernstein in Hong Kong.

如果該行基本面較好的話，這一切就問(wèn)題不大。但民生銀行的基本面比幾乎所有同類銀行都不穩(wěn)健。“鑒于其薄弱的資本狀況、脆弱的流動(dòng)性和龐大的影子銀行業(yè)務(wù)——這類業(yè)務(wù)在監(jiān)管層打擊下日益處于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之中——我們認(rèn)為該行目前的估值是不合理的。”桑福德伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C. Bernstein)的香港分析師們表示。

Virtually all the major Chinese banks have plenty of deposits and are therefore relatively less sensitive to the periodic jitters that make shares on the mainland inherently unstable. However, here Minsheng is an outlier — it depends on the wholesale market for 30 per cent of its funding. That is never a good thing, but in China where regulators have been steadily raising the cost of interbank funding it is especially bad, and increasingly expensive.

幾乎所有大型中資銀行都吸收了大量存款，因此它們對(duì)于導(dǎo)致A股內(nèi)在不穩(wěn)定性的周期性波動(dòng)不太敏感。然而，在這方面民生銀行是個(gè)異數(shù)，它有三成融資依靠批發(fā)市場(chǎng)獲得。這從來(lái)就不是一件好事，考慮到中國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)一直在穩(wěn)步地提高銀行同業(yè)融資的成本，這一點(diǎn)尤其糟糕，而且成本越來(lái)越高。

Moreover Minsheng is particularly involved in shadow banking transactions. Today regulators are forcing such products into the sunshine of the loan book from the murkier investment receivables category, forcing Minsheng and others like it to set aside more capital for these exposures.

此外，民生銀行還大量涉足影子銀行交易。目前監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)正強(qiáng)制銀行將此類產(chǎn)品從“應(yīng)收款項(xiàng)類投資”這種較不透明的項(xiàng)目下轉(zhuǎn)移到一目了然的貸款賬簿，這迫使民生銀行等要對(duì)這些敞口撥備更多資本。

“Minsheng is the only major bank not owned by the government or a state-owned enterprise.” says Matthew Phan an analyst with research house CreditSights. By contrast, China Merchants has far stronger capital and liquidity, he adds. To invest in a bank that maintains close ties to the government and state-owned enterprises and has an impressive management and strategy such as Merchants seems increasingly the prudent thing to do.

“民生是唯一非政府或國(guó)企所有的大型銀行，”研究機(jī)構(gòu)CreditSights的分析師Matthew Phan說(shuō)道。他還說(shuō)，相比之下，招商銀行的資本和流動(dòng)性都要強(qiáng)得多。投資像招行這樣與政府和國(guó)企保持著密切關(guān)系、有著出色管理層和發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的銀行越發(fā)顯得是謹(jǐn)慎之舉。