分析：深圳創(chuàng)業(yè)板為何魅力不再？

China’s small-cap stocks have touched a two-and-a-half-year low as investors lose appetite for speculative bets on frothy sectors such as technology.

中國(guó)小盤(pán)股觸及兩年半低點(diǎn)，投資者對(duì)投機(jī)性押注于科技等估值偏高的板塊失去了胃口。

IT makes up almost 40 per cent by market capitalisation of the Shenzhen-based ChiNext exchange, which was launched in 2009 and modelled on Wall Street’s Nasdaq as a home for start-ups in emerging sectors.

IT在深圳創(chuàng)業(yè)板(ChiNext)占到總市值的近40%。2009年推出的這個(gè)二板市場(chǎng)以華爾街的納斯達(dá)克(Nasdaq)為模板，面向新興行業(yè)的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)。

The Shanghai bourse, in contrast, is weighted towards old-economy stalwarts such as banks, property developers and manufacturers.

相比之下，上海證券交易所側(cè)重于“舊經(jīng)濟(jì)”大牌企業(yè)，如銀行、房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商和制造商。

With 656 companies and a total market cap of Rmb4.6tn ($680bn), ChiNext is tiny compared with the main boards in Shanghai and Shenzhen, at Rmb35tn and Rmb22tn, respectively.

擁有656家上市公司、總市值為4.6萬(wàn)億元人民幣(合6800億美元)的深圳創(chuàng)業(yè)板，與上海和深圳的主板市場(chǎng)相比規(guī)模很小，后兩者的總市值分別為35萬(wàn)億元人民幣和22萬(wàn)億元人民幣。

But ChiNext is popular among speculators because small amounts of money can spark big movements.

但是，由于少量資金就足以引發(fā)股價(jià)大幅變動(dòng)，深圳創(chuàng)業(yè)板在投機(jī)者中很受歡迎。

During China’s 2015 stock market boom-and-bust cycle, the ChiNext Composite index nearly tripled in less than six months before falling spectacularly.

在2015年中國(guó)股市大漲大跌期間，創(chuàng)業(yè)板綜指(ChiNext Composite)先是在不到六個(gè)月時(shí)間里大漲近2倍，隨后出現(xiàn)暴跌。

Investors are again growing sceptical of “concept stocks” with a strong growth narrative but less persuasive financials.

如今投資者再次對(duì)“概念股”持懷疑態(tài)度，這些股票有強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)故事，但缺乏有說(shuō)服力的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)。

The ChiNext Composite dropped 5.8 per cent on Monday and then fell to a 30-month low in early trade yesterday, before closing 0.6 per cent higher.

創(chuàng)業(yè)板綜指周一下跌5.8%，昨日早盤(pán)進(jìn)一步跌至30個(gè)月低位，收盤(pán)微升0.6%。

For the year the small-cap index is down 17 per cent, against a 2.7 per cent gain in the large cap-focused Shanghai Composite.

今年以來(lái)這個(gè)小盤(pán)股指數(shù)下跌17%，而偏重大盤(pán)股的上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)上漲2.7%。

Nearly half the profit growth of companies on the ChiNext early this year came from acquisitions, according to Zhang Xia, analyst at China Merchants Securities in Shenzhen. That has led to scepticism about their capacity for organic growth.

招商證券(China Merchants Securities)在深圳的分析師張夏表示，今年初，創(chuàng)業(yè)板公司的盈利增長(zhǎng)近一半來(lái)自收購(gòu)。這令人懷疑其有機(jī)增長(zhǎng)能力。

In addition, Chinese regulators have tightened approvals of follow-on share offerings, which have been commonly used to fund acquisitions since 2014. 此外，中國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)收緊了對(duì)后續(xù)發(fā)股的審批，這種操作自2014年以來(lái)被普遍用于為收購(gòu)籌資。

“The government is no longer supportive of capital raising for acquisitions,” said Mr Zhang. “The number and size of acquisitions is falling. This pressure is now starting to bear on the market.”

“政府不再支持為收購(gòu)而進(jìn)行的籌資活動(dòng)，”張夏表示。“收購(gòu)的數(shù)量和規(guī)模正在下降。這個(gè)壓力現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)上了。”

Expectations of further acquisitions had helped push typical price/earnings ratios up to 40 or 50, he added. But Mr Zhang said he expected the market to retreat gradually towards the historical norm of about 20.

他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，對(duì)于進(jìn)一步收購(gòu)的預(yù)期，此前幫助把典型的市盈率推高至40或50倍。但張夏表示，他預(yù)計(jì)市場(chǎng)將逐漸回歸大約20倍的歷史常態(tài)。

A related issue is the waning interest from speculators in listed shell companies, which have been targets for groups that are eager to list. Chinese regulators strictly control the flow of initial public offerings in Shanghai and Shenzhen, leading to hundreds of companies queueing — often for years — for the privilege of issuing new shares.

一個(gè)相關(guān)的問(wèn)題是投機(jī)者對(duì)上市殼公司興趣下降，這類(lèi)公司此前是急于上市的集團(tuán)的目標(biāo)。中國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)嚴(yán)格控制上海和深圳的首次公開(kāi)發(fā)行(IPO)流量，導(dǎo)致數(shù)百家公司排隊(duì)等候(往往一等就是幾年)發(fā)行新股的“特權(quán)”。

Backdoor listings have become a popular way for companies to get round the backlog.

借殼上市已成為企業(yè)規(guī)避排隊(duì)的一種流行方式。

However, in the past year regulators have accelerated IPO approvals on ChiNext, reducing the value of would-be shell companies and deterring potential speculators.

然而，在過(guò)去一年里，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)加快了對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板IPO的審批，此舉降低了潛在殼公司的價(jià)值，阻止了潛在的投機(jī)者。

An additional headwind is the impending end to lock-up periods on new shares issued by ChiNext companies since 2014 as part of acquisition deals.

另一個(gè)不利于行情的因素是，作為收購(gòu)交易的一部分，自2014年以來(lái)針對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板公司發(fā)行的新股的鎖定期即將結(jié)束。

The typical lock-up period is three years, so a wave of new shares is set to hit the market over the next year.

典型的鎖定期是三年，所以一波新股票將在未來(lái)一年流入市場(chǎng)。