投資者看好中國(guó)綠色概念股

Two events — one that has just happened and one that may be imminent — are swelling the ranks of investors willing to bet that a great environmental rehabilitation in smog-choked China will become a stock market megatrend.

兩起事件——其中一起剛剛發(fā)生，另一起可能很快就會(huì)發(fā)生——正在推動(dòng)投資者作出這樣一個(gè)押注：深受霧霾困擾的中國(guó)為整治環(huán)境而付出的巨大努力，將成為股市的一個(gè)大趨勢(shì)。

First came last week’s decision by Donald Trump to pull the US out of the Paris climate accord, ceding leadership over the global green agenda to China and Europe. Then there is the prospect of MSCI, the index provider, deciding this month to include some Chinese A shares into one of its benchmarks for the first time.

前一起事件是唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)上周決定把美國(guó)撤出巴黎氣候協(xié)定，從而把全球綠色議程的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)拱手讓給中國(guó)和歐洲。后一起事件是指數(shù)提供商MSCI明晟有望在本月決定將一些中國(guó)A股首次納入旗下一個(gè)基準(zhǔn)。

“What the Chinese dream about is blue sky and blue water,” says Karine Hirn, partner at East Capital, an emerging market asset manager. “Investment into the global leaders in environmental protection is very exciting.”

“中國(guó)人的夢(mèng)想是藍(lán)天碧水，”新興市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)管理公司East Capital的合伙人習(xí)卡琳(Karine Hirn)表示。“投資于環(huán)保領(lǐng)域的全球領(lǐng)軍者非常激動(dòng)人心。”

Environmental degradation in China — the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases — has created an unstoppable “green” momentum, galvanised by social pressure and reinforced by Beijing’s regulatory will.

身為全球最大的溫室氣體排放國(guó)，中國(guó)的環(huán)境退化已經(jīng)催生了一股不可阻擋的“綠色”勢(shì)頭，既受到社會(huì)壓力的強(qiáng)大推動(dòng)，又被北京方面的監(jiān)管意志強(qiáng)化。

This means there is no chance that Beijing will follow the US and back out of the 2015 Paris agreement to combat climate change, says Wang Yao, director-general of the International Institute of Green Finance in Beijing.

北京綠色金融國(guó)際研究院(International Institute of Green Finance)院長(zhǎng)王遙表示，這意味著北京方面不可能追隨美國(guó)，退出旨在對(duì)抗氣候變化的2015年巴黎協(xié)定。

Mr Trump’s move “makes China into a leader”, she adds in an interview. “But really we are just doing what we must do for our own domestic reasons. We face a very serious environmental challenge so we must continue with green development.”

她補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，特朗普此舉“把中國(guó)造就成一個(gè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者”。“但其實(shí)，我們只是出于我們自己的國(guó)內(nèi)原因而做一些我們必須做的事情。我們面對(duì)一場(chǎng)嚴(yán)峻的環(huán)境挑戰(zhàn)，所以我們必須堅(jiān)持綠色發(fā)展。”

This imperative has accelerated an avalanche of investment in clean technologies, green transportation and renewable energy in the past few years. China has more than a third of the world’s wind power capacity; a quarter of its solar power; six of the top 10 solar-panel makers; and four of the top 10 wind turbine makers. It recorded more battery-only electric car sales last year than the rest of the world combined.

這一迫切需要已經(jīng)在過(guò)去幾年加快了對(duì)清潔技術(shù)、綠色交通和可再生能源的大舉投資。中國(guó)擁有世界三分之一以上的風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量、四分之一的太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電能力、排名前10的太陽(yáng)能電池板制造商中的6家，以及排名前10的風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)制造商中的4家。去年，中國(guó)的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量高于世界其他地方的總和。

Ms Hirn estimates that a sum roughly equivalent to the GDP of Denmark is invested in Chinese clean tech each year, while the total market capitalisation of about 350 listed green Chinese companies is about $600bn. But although these are big numbers, she says, China will need far greater investment if it hopes to rehabilitate its contaminated air, land and water.

習(xí)卡琳估計(jì)，中國(guó)清潔技術(shù)領(lǐng)域每年得到的投資總額，與丹麥的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)相仿;大約350家中國(guó)上市綠色企業(yè)的總市值約為6000億美元。但她表示，盡管這些是巨大的數(shù)字，但中國(guó)將需要多得多的投資，才有希望恢復(fù)已經(jīng)受到污染的空氣、土壤和水體。

John Lin, portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, is also animated by the green theme. Opportunities have come in industries where small polluting factories have been shut en masse, boosting profit margins for larger environmentally friendly group, he says.

聯(lián)博(AllianceBernstein)投資組合經(jīng)理林樺堂(John Lin)也對(duì)綠色主題感到振奮。他說(shuō)，在污染嚴(yán)重的小廠大量關(guān)閉的行業(yè)，機(jī)遇已經(jīng)到來(lái)，因?yàn)檫@提升了對(duì)環(huán)境友好的較大企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)率。

In paper production, shares in Nine Dragons Paper and Shandong Chenming Paper have impressed, while there have been beneficiaries in steel, non-ferrous metals and chemicals, Mr Lin says.

林樺堂表示，在造紙行業(yè)，玖龍紙業(yè)(Nine Dragons Paper)和山東晨鳴紙業(yè)(Shandong Chenming Paper)近期股票表現(xiàn)令人印象深刻，同時(shí)鋼鐵、有色金屬和化工等行業(yè)也都涌現(xiàn)了受益者。

Ms Hirn favours the clean transportation theme, particularly companies involved in new energy vehicle technology. Opportunities beckon in waste management and air pollution control as local governments answer exhortations from Beijing to clean up their cities, she adds.

習(xí)卡琳對(duì)清潔運(yùn)輸主題情有獨(dú)鐘，尤其是涉及新能源汽車(chē)技術(shù)的公司。她補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，隨著地方政府響應(yīng)北京方面對(duì)于整治城市環(huán)境的號(hào)召，廢棄物管理和空氣污染控制領(lǐng)域的機(jī)遇也在應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。

Many companies that stand to gain from the green agenda are listed on the $7tn domestic A-share market, which remains exotic for many overseas funds. However, this could change on June 20.

有望獲益于綠色議程的許多公司在7萬(wàn)億美元的國(guó)內(nèi)A股市場(chǎng)上市，該市場(chǎng)對(duì)海外的眾多基金而言仍是奇異的。但是，這種情況可能會(huì)在6月20日發(fā)生變化。

If MSCI decides to include A shares in its emerging markets index, passive managers will be obliged to take on exposure for the first time, while active managers seek the best Chinese stocks, says Caroline Owen, chief executive, of RMB Global Advisors in New York. “We are on the verge of one of the greatest rebalancings in global portfolios in recent years,” she says.

紐約RMB Global Advisors首席執(zhí)行官卡羅琳•歐文(Caroline Owen)表示，如果MSCI明晟決定將A股納入其新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)，被動(dòng)基金管理公司不得不首次建立A股敞口，而主動(dòng)型投資管理機(jī)構(gòu)將尋覓最優(yōu)秀的中國(guó)股票。“我們正站在近年來(lái)規(guī)模最大的全球投資組合再平衡之一的門(mén)檻上。”

MSCI delayed inclusion for a third straight year last June, citing regulatory worries and the need for greater accessibility for global investors. This year it has reduced the number of A shares slated for inclusion from 448 to 169, in a move that was intended to make inclusion more palatable to global asset managers.

MSCI在去年6月連續(xù)第三年推遲納入A股，理由包括監(jiān)管擔(dān)憂(yōu)和全球投資者需要更暢通的投資渠道。今年，這家指數(shù)提供商把考慮納入的A股數(shù)量從448只減少至169只，此舉旨在使全球資產(chǎn)管理者更愿意接受中國(guó)A股。

However, it is possible that yet again the decision will be negative. “I heard there were some technical issues that may make it tough to include A shares this year,” says a fund manager who declined to be identified.

然而，MSCI也有可能再次作出否定的決定。“我聽(tīng)說(shuō)有一些技術(shù)問(wèn)題可能使今年納入A股有難度，”一名拒絕公開(kāi)身份的基金經(jīng)理表示。