馬克龍帶來(lái)一線曙光

There are politicians and there are leaders who change the weather. France’s Fifth Republic has had its share of politicians. In Emmanuel Macron it has now chosen a rainmaker as president.

這個(gè)世界既有普通的政界人士，也有可以呼風(fēng)喚雨的領(lǐng)袖。法蘭西第五共和國(guó)有過(guò)不少政界人士。埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)的當(dāng)選意味著，這個(gè)國(guó)家選出了一位呼風(fēng)喚雨的總統(tǒng)。

At this point, it is almost mandatory to list the ifs and buts. France is a deeply divided nation (I thought that was what happened at elections). A touch above a third of the voters felt driven to cast their ballot in favour of Marine Le Pen’s noxious National Front. Mr Macron’s En Marche! has yet to win seats in the National Assembly. Powerful trade unions are lined up against any proposals for economic modernisation. Remember Barack Obama’s “Yes We Can”? Well, Americans have now put Donald Trump in the White House.

此時(shí)此刻，列出“如果”和“但是”幾乎是強(qiáng)制義務(wù)。法國(guó)如今是一個(gè)分裂的國(guó)家(選舉的時(shí)候，難道不是都會(huì)發(fā)生這種情況嗎?)。略高于三分之一的選民竟然有動(dòng)力投票支持馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)的令人討厭的國(guó)民陣線(National Front)。馬克龍的“前進(jìn)”(En Marche!)尚未在國(guó)民議會(huì)(National Assembly)贏得席位。強(qiáng)大的工會(huì)正聯(lián)合起來(lái)，反對(duì)任何推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)代化的提議。還記得巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)那句“是的，我們可以”(Yes We Can)嗎?沒(méi)錯(cuò)，美國(guó)人現(xiàn)在讓唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)入主了白宮。

Cavils and caveats are inevitable, but their constant enunciation even before Mr Macron has crossed the threshold of the Elysee Palace speaks to the collapse of faith in politics. The ancien regime is gripped by fatalism — watch Britain’s moderate Labour MPs hurl themselves over the cliff rather than confront their hard-left leader Jeremy Corbyn. If nothing else, Mr Macron’s victory ought to restore a measure of confidence to politics, in France and beyond. Leaders with the courage of their convictions can change things.

挑刺和警告是不可避免的，但它們甚至在馬克龍還沒(méi)有進(jìn)入愛(ài)麗舍宮(Elysee Palace)之前就沒(méi)完沒(méi)了地出爐，表明人們對(duì)政治的信心已經(jīng)坍塌。宿命論籠罩著“舊制度”——看看英國(guó)工黨(Labour)的溫和議員們寧可眼看著自己在即將舉行的大選中遭遇慘敗，也不愿挑戰(zhàn)該黨的極左領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人杰里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)，就會(huì)明白這一點(diǎn)。即使沒(méi)有什么別的意義，馬克龍的勝利應(yīng)該會(huì)在一定程度上恢復(fù)人們對(duì)政治的信心，無(wú)論在法國(guó)還是在其他國(guó)家都是如此。有勇氣堅(jiān)持自己信念的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，可以改變現(xiàn)狀。

The digital age holds other temptations for commentators. It too often demands that the world be described in grand sweeps. Thus Mr Trump’s elevation to the US presidency signed the death warrant of liberal democracy. Mr Macron’s spectacular success has brought it back to life. The real world is not quite so obligingly neat.

對(duì)評(píng)論員而言，數(shù)字時(shí)代還有著其他誘惑。這個(gè)時(shí)代過(guò)于頻繁地要求以恢弘的筆墨來(lái)描述世界。于是，特朗普當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)就是簽下了自由民主體制的死刑執(zhí)行令。而馬克龍的巨大成功讓自由民主體制起死回生?，F(xiàn)實(shí)世界并不是那么涇渭分明。

In a continent drenched in pessimism, Mr Macron’s victory should be celebrated as indeed spectacular. Not much more than a year ago he was a minister in François Hollande’s failing administration. He dumped the president and the Socialist party to create the En Marche! movement. That took resolve. Still more impressive than the fact of his success was the substance and manner of his campaign.

在一個(gè)沉浸于悲觀情緒的大陸，馬克龍的勝利確實(shí)應(yīng)該被當(dāng)作巨大成功來(lái)慶祝。一年多以前，他在弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)搖搖欲墜的政府擔(dān)任部長(zhǎng)。他拋棄了奧朗德和社會(huì)黨(Parti socialiste)，轉(zhuǎn)而創(chuàng)建“前進(jìn)”運(yùn)動(dòng)。此舉需要決心。比他的勝選更令人印象深刻的是他競(jìng)選的內(nèi)容和方式。

Politicians have run scared of the populists — afraid to defend the open, tolerant internationalism that has underpinned European peace and prosperity. Mr Macron made no such apologies. He put openness, Europeanism and economic modernisation at the heart of his campaign. Europe’s anthem Ode to Joy played at his victory celebration. Contrast this with the fearful nationalism that compels Theresa May’s British government to haul down the EU flag.

當(dāng)今政界人士被民粹主義嚇壞。以至于不敢捍衛(wèi)支撐了歐洲和平和繁榮的開(kāi)放、寬容的國(guó)際主義。馬克龍則充滿了自信。他把開(kāi)放、歐洲主義和經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)代化置于競(jìng)選綱領(lǐng)的核心。在他贏得大選的慶?；顒?dòng)上響起歐盟盟歌《歡樂(lè)頌》(Ode to Joy)。與之形成對(duì)比的是，膽怯的民族主義迫使特里薩•梅(Theresa May)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的英國(guó)政府降下歐盟旗幟。

The president-elect set out the pivotal choice of our age, that between competing and retreating — the French choice between exceptionalism and Poujadism. He won. More Europe means more France. Those who quibble about the margin of his victory might recall that Mr Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton and the Brexiters won by only a sliver.

這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)闡明了我們這個(gè)時(shí)代的關(guān)鍵選擇：在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和退卻之間——對(duì)法國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，則是例外主義和布熱德主義(Poujadism，20世紀(jì)50年代法國(guó)一個(gè)右翼政治運(yùn)動(dòng)，主要得到中產(chǎn)階級(jí)支持——譯者注)之間的選擇。他贏了。更多歐洲意味著更多法國(guó)。那些對(duì)他的票數(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)吹毛求疵的人，最好記住特朗普獲得的總票數(shù)少于希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)，而英國(guó)退歐也只是以微弱優(yōu)勢(shì)勝出。

In Washington this week, I heard comparisons drawn with Mr Trump. Both presidents in their way are insider-outsiders; both upended their respective political establishments. And, if you want to continue the analogy, Mr Trump has found himself constrained by realities just as Mr Macron will now confront the harsh truths of a fractured France.

上周在華盛頓，我聽(tīng)到了有人把馬克龍和特朗普相提并論。兩位總統(tǒng)都以各自的方式既是圈內(nèi)人，又是圈外人;二人都顛覆了各自國(guó)家的政治體制。此外，如果你想繼續(xù)這種比較的話，特朗普已發(fā)現(xiàn)自己受制于現(xiàn)實(shí)，正如馬克龍如今將面對(duì)法國(guó)陷于分裂的殘酷事實(shí)。

Superficially attractive, these parallels say very little. Mr Trump arrived at the White House with no more than a set of prejudices, as seen in the capricious chaos that reigns in his administration. You do not have to share Mr Macron’s convictions to see he has a strategy.

這些相同之處表面上奪人眼球，但說(shuō)明不了什么問(wèn)題。特朗普只是帶著一系列偏見(jiàn)入主白宮，這體現(xiàn)于他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的行政當(dāng)局所表現(xiàn)出的任性混亂。相比之下，你不需要認(rèn)同馬克龍的信念，就可以看出他有一套戰(zhàn)略。

European democracy now has two powerful champions. Not so long ago Angela Merkel’s unapologetic defence of liberal values during the migration crisis threatened to break her grip on power. Now, all the signs are the German chancellor is heading back for a fourth term in the coming autumn elections.

如今歐洲民主有兩大支持者。不久前，安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)在移民危機(jī)期間毫無(wú)悔意地維護(hù)了自由主義價(jià)值觀，差點(diǎn)因此被趕下臺(tái)。如今，一切跡象都表明，在今年秋天的大選中，這位德國(guó)總理將獲得第四任期。

Plenty of tussles await Europe’s two leading politicians. I have no doubt that Ms Merkel will cling to the economic orthodoxy that can suffocate weaker economies. She has already warned that “German support cannot replace French policymaking”. Mr Macron will struggle at once to push through his reforms at home and persuade Berlin that a monetary union needs an economic framework. But argument and compromise have always been the way of Franco-German co-operation.

很多角力等待著歐洲兩位主要的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。我毫不懷疑，默克爾將堅(jiān)持可能絞殺較弱經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)正統(tǒng)。她已經(jīng)警告“德國(guó)的支持不能取代法國(guó)的政策制定”。馬克龍將竭力同時(shí)在兩方面發(fā)力：推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)改革，說(shuō)服柏林方面貨幣聯(lián)盟需要一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)框架。但是，爭(zhēng)論和妥協(xié)一直是法德合作的方式。

The continent’s two leading powers are now pulling in the same direction. For Mr Macron the reinvigoration of France and the restoration of faith in European collaboration are indivisible. Ms Merkel has long complained that, in the absence of a serious French partner, Germany has carried the burden of European leadership. Mr Macron’s prospectus comes at a price. But Berlin cannot afford to let this opportunity slip.

歐洲兩個(gè)主要大國(guó)如今向著同一個(gè)方向努力。對(duì)于馬克龍來(lái)說(shuō)，重振法國(guó)和恢復(fù)人們對(duì)歐洲合作的信念是不可分割的。默克爾則長(zhǎng)久抱怨稱，沒(méi)有一個(gè)像樣的法國(guó)伙伴，使德國(guó)獨(dú)自承擔(dān)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)歐盟的重?fù)?dān)。馬克龍的登場(chǎng)將會(huì)有代價(jià)。但德國(guó)負(fù)擔(dān)不起讓這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)溜走的后果。

Mr Trump caught a tide. The financial crash, stagnating incomes, the insecurities and dislocations of technological advance and globalisation and, yes, the insouciant indifference of elites to the fate of the-left behind, has corroded faith in the institutions of liberal democracy. The US president has no answers to the challenges. To the contrary, he heads an administration in thrall to its own set of plutocrats.

特朗普抓住了時(shí)勢(shì)。金融危機(jī)、收入停滯、全球化和技術(shù)進(jìn)步帶來(lái)的不安全感和錯(cuò)位、以及精英階層對(duì)那些被拋在后面的人群的漠不關(guān)心，腐蝕了人們對(duì)自由民主制度的信心。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)沒(méi)有應(yīng)對(duì)這些挑戰(zhàn)的答案。相反，他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的行政當(dāng)局受制于自己的一批財(cái)閥。

Mr Macron presents a moment of optimism. He is a reminder that voters are still prepared to listen to a reasoned case. His success is not predestined, but nor is his failure. There is life yet in liberal democracy. The Brexit rupture aside, Europe looks in better shape than it has for some time. Now it has the promise of leadership.

馬克龍帶來(lái)了一個(gè)令人樂(lè)觀的時(shí)刻。他提醒世人，選民仍然愿意傾聽(tīng)理性的聲音。他并非命中注定一定成功，但失敗也不是他無(wú)法擺脫的宿命。自由民主體制仍有生命力。撇開(kāi)英國(guó)退歐這一割裂，歐洲目前的狀況看起來(lái)好于一段時(shí)間以來(lái)?，F(xiàn)在它有了領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的希望。