集裝箱航運(yùn)業(yè)：波動(dòng)性、不確定性和擾亂

There must be something badly wrong with a business when customers tell suppliers they should put their prices up.

當(dāng)客戶告訴供應(yīng)商他們應(yīng)該提價(jià)時(shí)，行業(yè)一定出了嚴(yán)重的問題。

Yet this has happened repeatedly in the world’s shipping industry as it struggles to cope with an imbalance between supply and demand that is creating uncertainty and disruption both for shipping lines and for the companies that depend on them to carry their goods across the world.

但是，這一幕已多次出現(xiàn)在艱難應(yīng)對(duì)供需不平衡的全球航運(yùn)業(yè)。這種失衡正在給航運(yùn)公司以及依靠它們將貨物運(yùn)往世界各地的企業(yè)帶來不確定性和擾亂。

“People are asking carriers for price increases just to make sure their cargos are actually shipped,” says Patrik Berglund, co-founder and chief executive of Xeneta, a Norwegian company that tracks container shipping rates.

追蹤集裝箱運(yùn)費(fèi)的挪威公司Xeneta的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人和首席執(zhí)行官帕特里克•貝里隆德(Patrik Berglund)說：“人們正促請(qǐng)航運(yùn)公司提高價(jià)格，以確保自己的貨物真的被裝運(yùn)。”

Such appeals have become routine. At last week’s Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference organised by the Journal of Commerce, an industry publication, in Long Beach, California, Rob Kusciel, head of transport and logistics at Honeywell, told delegates that “carriers are pricing below cost and it is not sustainable”.

此類請(qǐng)求已變成常態(tài)。最近，在由行業(yè)出版物《Journal of Commerce》在加州長(zhǎng)灘主辦的泛太平洋海運(yùn)會(huì)議(Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference)上，霍尼韋爾(Honeywell)運(yùn)輸與物流主管Rob Kusciel對(duì)與會(huì)代表們表示：“承運(yùn)人正把價(jià)格定在成本以下，這是不可持續(xù)的”。

Peter Levesque, chief executive of Modern Terminals, a container port operator based in Hong Kong, said the current pricing model was “broken” and that shipping companies were operating at rates that were unprofitable “to the level of strangulation”, the JOC reported.

據(jù)《Journal of Commerce》報(bào)道，總部位于香港的集裝箱碼頭運(yùn)營(yíng)商——現(xiàn)代貨柜碼頭公司(Modern Terminals)首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官彼得•萊韋斯克(Peter Levesque)表示，當(dāng)前的定價(jià)模式“亂了套”，航運(yùn)公司賴以維持經(jīng)營(yíng)的運(yùn)費(fèi)已經(jīng)無利可圖“至窒息的水平”。

This is despite the fact that the average cost of shipping a 40ft container from East Asia to the east coast of South America has risen from $500 to $3,285 over the past 12 months, according to Xeneta.

這還不算以下事實(shí)：根據(jù)Xeneta的數(shù)據(jù)，過去12個(gè)月里，將一個(gè)40英尺集裝箱從東亞運(yùn)至南美洲東海岸的平均成本已從500美元漲至3285美元。

Indeed, 2017 has begun with a cascade of what should be good news for the shipping industry. Growth in emerging markets is surging ahead, rising to 6.4 per cent in January according to the Institute of International Finance, an industry association. Activity in the US and other developed markets is picking up, leading to a reported increase in capital expenditure globally with the prospect of rising demand for EM exports. An index of export managers’ activity compiled by China’s customs service rose to 41.5 in January from 32 a year earlier.

的確，2017年伊始出現(xiàn)了一連串應(yīng)該利好航運(yùn)業(yè)的事態(tài)。根據(jù)行業(yè)組織國(guó)際金融協(xié)會(huì)(IIF)的數(shù)據(jù)，新興市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)迅猛增長(zhǎng)，1月加速至6.4%。美國(guó)及其他發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)正出現(xiàn)起色，導(dǎo)致全球資本支出增加，這意味著對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)出口的需求可能越來越大。中國(guó)海關(guān)編制的出口經(jīng)理人指數(shù)從一年前的32升至今年1月的41.5。

Yet the rise in container rates over the past year hides extreme price volatility. As the first chart shows, the cost of shipping a 40ft container from, say, Shanghai to Santos on a short-term contract has swung wildly over the past year, according to Xeneta’s data. The chart shows only the average cost: some shippers report paying as little as $50 or even $25 a container.

但過去一年集裝箱運(yùn)費(fèi)的上漲掩蓋了極端的價(jià)格波動(dòng)。如圖表一(見下)所示，根據(jù)Xeneta的數(shù)據(jù)，按短期合同將一個(gè)40英尺集裝箱(比方說)從上海運(yùn)至巴西桑托斯的成本在過去一年經(jīng)歷了劇烈波動(dòng)。該圖只顯示了平均成本：一些托運(yùn)人稱，他們?yōu)橐粋€(gè)集裝箱支付的運(yùn)費(fèi)曾經(jīng)低至50甚至25美元。

The danger for shippers of rates this low is that, sometimes, it hardly seems worth the carriers’ while to pick the containers up — so, sometimes, they do not.

如此低的運(yùn)費(fèi)給托運(yùn)人帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于，有時(shí)候，這似乎都不值得承運(yùn)人費(fèi)事發(fā)運(yùn)集裝箱——有時(shí)候，他們真的不管這些集裝箱。

“Imagine a vessel approaching Shanghai,” says Mr Berglund at Xeneta. “They look at the boxes on the dock and say that one yields so much, and that one yields a third of the amount. The low-yielding box will be the last one to be picked up.”

“設(shè)想一艘進(jìn)入上海港的船舶，”Xeneta的貝里隆德說，“他們看著碼頭上的集裝箱，然后說這個(gè)利潤(rùn)這么多，而那個(gè)利潤(rùn)只有前者的三分之一。低利潤(rùn)的集裝箱只能最后被吊上船。”

Exacerbating this situation is an industry practice of using unenforceable contracts: both shipper and carrier want flexibility on volumes, with the corollary that neither can hold the other to their word.

加劇這種狀況的是一種采用不可強(qiáng)制執(zhí)行的合同的行業(yè)慣例：托運(yùn)人和承運(yùn)人都希望在貨運(yùn)量上保持靈活性，其必然結(jié)果是雙方都無法讓對(duì)方信守承諾。

In normal times, things tend to balance out. But these are not normal times. The second chart shows the value of global trade since 1948, according to Unctad, the United Nations trade body. As globalisation advanced after the second world war, trade expanded on an almost unbroken trend.

在正常時(shí)期，往往可以逐漸實(shí)現(xiàn)平衡。但現(xiàn)在并非正常時(shí)期。圖表二(見下)顯示根據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)貿(mào)發(fā)會(huì)議(Unctad)的數(shù)據(jù)編制的1948年以來全球貿(mào)易總價(jià)值。隨著二戰(zhàn)后全球化不斷推進(jìn)，貿(mào)易以一種幾乎從未間斷的趨勢(shì)不斷擴(kuò)大。

By the first decade of this century, the pace of growth was faster than ever. To cope with rising volumes, shipping companies commissioned more and more ships, in ever bigger sizes. With economies of scale, shipping rates fell.

本世紀(jì)頭10年，全球貿(mào)易增速比之前任何一個(gè)時(shí)期都快。為了處理不斷增多的貨運(yùn)量，航運(yùn)公司訂造了越來越多船舶，而船的噸位也越來越大。規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)導(dǎo)致運(yùn)費(fèi)下降。

But then came the global financial crisis, followed by years of uncertainty and what many see as the current unravelling of globalisation. With the Trump administration in the US making promises of protectionism, the future of shipping has never been less certain.

但接著爆發(fā)了全球金融危機(jī)，隨后是多年的不確定性以及許多人眼中正在上演的全球化逆轉(zhuǎn)。鑒于美國(guó)特朗普政府作出種種保護(hù)主義承諾，航運(yùn)業(yè)的未來從未像現(xiàn)在這樣難以捉摸。

The disruption of globalisation came at a time when ships were being built like never before. Yet when trade recovered after the global crisis, shipping lines again put in big orders. The global shipping industry now suffers from overcapacity on an unprecedented scale.

全球化遇挫之際，造船活動(dòng)達(dá)到前所未有的規(guī)模。然而，當(dāng)全球金融危機(jī)過后貿(mào)易復(fù)蘇時(shí)，航運(yùn)公司又一次發(fā)出大筆訂單。如今，全球航運(yùn)業(yè)遭遇規(guī)?？涨暗倪\(yùn)力過剩。

VesselsValue, a company that monitors the value of the world’s ships, says 2,028 container vessels are currently valued at or below their value as scrap metal, with the other 3,242 vessels in the world valued at more than scrap. In volume terms, 7.3m teus (20ft-equivalent units), or nearly a third of the global fleet, is at or below scrap, with 16.2m teus above.

監(jiān)測(cè)全球船舶價(jià)值的VesselsValue公司稱，當(dāng)前，2028艘集裝箱船的估值處在或低于其作為廢鋼的價(jià)值，全球另有3242艘集裝箱船的估值高于廢鋼。按運(yùn)力計(jì)算，730萬個(gè)20英尺標(biāo)準(zhǔn)集裝箱(相當(dāng)于全球集裝箱船隊(duì)運(yùn)力的近三分之一)的運(yùn)力處于或低于廢鋼價(jià)，1620萬個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)集裝箱的運(yùn)力的估值高于廢鋼。

The situation may be about to get worse. Alphaliner, a company that monitors ship construction, says total shipping capacity will grow by an average of 4 per cent a year in 2017 and 2018, on top of existing idle capacity of 7 per cent. The biggest problem is in mega-ships: more than 150 new ships with the ability to carry more than 10,000 teus at a time will be delivered by the end of next year.

這種狀況可能將變得更糟。監(jiān)測(cè)船舶建造的Alphaliner公司表示，全球總運(yùn)力將在2017年和2018年平均每年增長(zhǎng)4%，這還不算現(xiàn)有的7%的閑置運(yùn)力。最大的問題在于巨型貨輪：逾150艘一次可承運(yùn)超過1萬個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)集裝箱的新船將在明年底之前交付。

What this means for the world’s shipyards is a separate story. Big shipping lines, where they can, have been cancelling orders. In a bid to keep container rates up, they have also cancelled sailings. Mr Berglund says that during this year’s Chinese new year celebrations, when volumes fall away, shipping lines from China to northern Europe pulled out as much as 43 per cent of their capacity.

這對(duì)全球造船廠而言意味著什么則是另一回事。在可能的情況下，大型航運(yùn)公司正在取消訂單。為了保持集裝箱運(yùn)費(fèi)處于合理區(qū)間，它們還取消了航行班次。貝里隆德說，在今年的中國(guó)農(nóng)歷新年期間，當(dāng)貨物量銳減時(shí)，經(jīng)營(yíng)從中國(guó)到北歐班輪的航運(yùn)公司砍掉了多達(dá)43%的運(yùn)力。

The third chart compares short-term rates with long-term rates on the China to northern Europe route. The jumps in the short-term rates portray general rate increases, or GRIs, announced publicly by one shipping company after another, usually around the same time.

圖表三比較了中國(guó)至北歐航線的短期運(yùn)費(fèi)和長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)費(fèi)。短期價(jià)格躍升表述為綜合費(fèi)率上漲附加費(fèi)(GRI)，通常在差不多同一時(shí)間由航運(yùn)公司一個(gè)接一個(gè)公開宣布。

As the first and third charts show, GRIs tend to stick only for a while. Long-term rates, seen in the third chart, are more stable but tend to trail short-term rates with a lag. Recently, shipping lines have managed to impose higher long-term rates. The short line at the end of the third chart shows only those contracts agreed in the past three months.

如圖表一和圖表三所示，GRI往往只持續(xù)一小段時(shí)間。長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)費(fèi)(如圖表三所示，見下)更加穩(wěn)定，但傾向于滯后于短期運(yùn)費(fèi)。近期，航運(yùn)公司成功地實(shí)行了更高的長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)費(fèi)。圖表三末尾的短線只顯示了過去3個(gè)月簽訂的合同。

Some shippers will be relieved to be paying real-world rates again. It means they can be more certain that their goods will be delivered.

再次支付切合實(shí)際的運(yùn)費(fèi)將讓一些托運(yùn)人如釋重負(fù)。這意味著他們可以更加確定自己的貨物將被送達(dá)目的地。

“For many shippers rates fell so low as to be insignificant,” says Mr Berglund. “But then they started to suffer disruption to their supply chains. If your cargo is stuck at sea — and for a small company that can mean your entire stock — that’s a crisis. All of a sudden ocean freight became incredibly important, and that’s when prices picked up again.”

“對(duì)于許多托運(yùn)人而言，運(yùn)費(fèi)已降至如此之低的水平，使其(對(duì)于總成本)無足輕重，”貝里隆德說，“但接著他們開始遭遇供應(yīng)鏈擾亂。如果你的貨物被困海上(對(duì)一家小公司這可能意味著全部庫存)那就是一場(chǎng)危機(jī)。突然間，遠(yuǎn)洋貨運(yùn)變得極其重要，這就是價(jià)格再次上揚(yáng)的時(shí)候。”

The biggest single disruptive event of recent times was last year’s collapse of Hanjin, a South Korean shipping line many of whose ships were left adrift for months. It can be seen in the jump in the China-northern Europe rate last October, which has stuck for longer than most.

近期最大的一起破壞性事件是去年韓國(guó)的韓進(jìn)海運(yùn)(Hanjin Shipping)破產(chǎn)，該公司的很多船舶滯留于海上數(shù)月之久。這體現(xiàn)于去年10月中國(guó)至北歐的運(yùn)費(fèi)猛漲，這一上漲的持續(xù)時(shí)間也超過多數(shù)航線。

But the Hanjin incident has not yet played out. Some of its capacity is still returning to the market. Short-term rates have begun falling again. Mr Berglund says the latest round of negotiations for the Asia-northern Europe corridor, which usually takes place at the end of each calendar year, has been abandoned by both sides because of the level of uncertainty.

但韓進(jìn)事件的影響還沒有結(jié)束。該公司的一些運(yùn)力正在重返市場(chǎng)。短期運(yùn)費(fèi)已再次開始下降。貝里隆德介紹說，鑒于巨大的不確定性，圍繞亞洲-北歐航線的最新一輪談判(通常在每年年底舉行)已被雙方放棄。

“From the point of view of the shipping lines, which have been bleeding billions over the past few years, that makes sense,” he says. “From the shippers’ point of view, it’s a huge risk but I can understand it given the uncertainty.”

“從過去幾年遭受巨額虧損的航運(yùn)公司的視角看，這有道理，”他說，“從托運(yùn)人的角度看，這是一個(gè)巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但考慮到不確定性，我可以理解。”

Both sides will be watching the fall in short-term rates shown in the third chart. If the past is any guide, it suggests long-term rates will fall again. Volatility, uncertainty and disruption may be back before long.

雙方都將關(guān)注圖表三所示的短期運(yùn)費(fèi)下降。如果歷史可以為鑒，它似乎表明長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)費(fèi)將再次下降。波動(dòng)性、不確定性和擾亂可能不久就會(huì)回來。