特朗普會栽在憲法修正案上嗎？

Type “the 25th amendment” into a search engine and the results throw up a lot of stories about Donald Trump. This hitherto fairly obscure codicil to the work of America’s founding fathers was among the hot topics of conversation among leading Republicans at the Munich Security Conference. Perhaps, the chatter had it, it provides the route to unseat the president. Such is the surreal nature of the conversation within the Washington political establishment about Mr Trump’s steadily more surreal presidency.

在搜索引擎中輸入“第25修正案”，會有很多關(guān)于唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的新聞。針對美國開國元勛們制定的憲法出臺的這條迄今仍鮮為人知的修正案，是參加慕尼黑安全會議(Munich Security Conference)的美國共和黨高層熱議的一個話題。也許，這條行文繁瑣的修正案提供了一條罷免總統(tǒng)的路徑。在華盛頓的政治建制派內(nèi)部，圍繞特朗普嚴(yán)重超現(xiàn)實的總統(tǒng)職務(wù)的議論就帶著這樣的超現(xiàn)實本質(zhì)。

First the amendment. Passed 50 years ago and intended to address ambiguities in the body of the constitution, the amending clause offers an alternative to impeachment as a way to change the commander-in-chief. Specifically it says: “Whenever the vice-president and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the president pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the vice-president shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as acting president.”

首先，這條50年前通過的、旨在解決憲法原文中模糊之處的修正案，在以彈劾方式撤換總統(tǒng)之外提供了另一種選擇。該修正案明確寫道：“凡當(dāng)副總統(tǒng)和行政各部長官的多數(shù)或國會以法律設(shè)立的其他機(jī)構(gòu)成員的多數(shù)，向參議院臨時議長和眾議院議長提交書面聲明，聲稱總統(tǒng)不能夠履行總統(tǒng)職務(wù)的權(quán)力和責(zé)任時，副總統(tǒng)應(yīng)立即作為代理總統(tǒng)承擔(dān)總統(tǒng)職務(wù)的權(quán)力和責(zé)任。”

Put simply, the vice-president and the cabinet could mount a coup against a sitting president seen as unfit to carry out his or her duties. The intent of the amendment was to deal with a situation when the president was incapacitated by, say, ill health. But the wording looks sufficiently open to allow a broad interpretation of such incapacity. That anyway is what was being said by members of Mr Trump’s own party in the bars of Munich.

簡言之，即副總統(tǒng)和內(nèi)閣可以對被認(rèn)為不適合履職的現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)發(fā)動政變。該修正案的本意是為了應(yīng)對總統(tǒng)無法履職的情況，比如說因健康原因。但其措辭看起來足夠開放，以至于可對無法履職的情形作出寬泛解釋。總之，這正是特朗普所在共和黨的成員在慕尼黑酒館里所談?wù)摰摹?/p>

There is a catch — or rather a safety net. The removed president could appeal to the Congress. And for the sacking to stand, the vice-president and cabinet would need to marshall a two-thirds majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. That is a pretty high bar — and one that nobody seems ready to risk any time soon. Nor does Mike Pence, who offered a self-consciously loyal speech at the conference, carry the air of a vice-president with a dagger concealed in his sleeve.

這里還有一個玄機(jī)——或者更確切地說，是一道安全網(wǎng)。被解除職務(wù)的總統(tǒng)可以向國會申訴。要維持罷免決定，副總統(tǒng)和內(nèi)閣必須在參、眾兩院都獲得三分之二的多數(shù)支持。這是一個相當(dāng)高的門檻，高到近期內(nèi)似乎沒有人甘冒此風(fēng)險。在慕尼黑會議上自覺發(fā)表忠誠演講的副總統(tǒng)邁克•彭斯(Mike Pence)，也沒有表露出“袖里藏刀”的跡象。

But if the thought of deposing Mr Trump only weeks into his term of office seems excitable, the simple fact of the many conversations in Munich about the 25th amendment was a measure of the mounting alarm within his own party about the president’s fitness for office. Beyond Mr Trump’s alternative facts, downright falsehoods and increasingly hysterical attacks on the media, and the separate concerns about contacts with Vladimir Putin’s Russian regime, stories abound about his chaotic and eccentric working habits.

但是，如果說在特朗普上任僅幾周就將其罷免的想法令人興奮的話，慕尼黑出現(xiàn)與第25修正案相關(guān)的諸多討論的簡單事實，反映出特朗普本黨內(nèi)部關(guān)于其是否適合履職的不斷加劇的擔(dān)憂。除了“替代事實”、公然說謊、日益歇斯底里地抨擊媒體以及人們擔(dān)憂其與弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)的俄羅斯政權(quán)之間有聯(lián)系以外，還有大量關(guān)于特朗普混亂、異乎尋常的工作習(xí)慣的故事。

Oval Office meetings are conducted with the television still blaring and the president frequently distracted, Mr Trump’s attention span rarely extends beyond a few minutes, and briefing papers are restricted to a few bullet points (preferably illustrated).

橢圓形辦公室里開會時電視開得很大聲而且總統(tǒng)經(jīng)常分心，特朗普集中注意力的時間一般只能持續(xù)幾分鐘，簡報文件被限制到只羅列出幾處要點(最好有圖解)。

The president is also said to be in direct conflict with James Mattis, the defence secretary, and Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, about appointments to their departments. Stephen Bannon, the extreme nationalist who serves as Mr Trump’s head of strategy, is accused of building an alternative network of loyalists to undermine decisions taken by the cabinet.

據(jù)稱，特朗普還與國防部長詹姆斯•馬蒂斯(James Mattis)及國務(wù)卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)在他們各自部門的一些任命問題上發(fā)生了直接沖突。特朗普的首席戰(zhàn)略師、極端民族主義者斯蒂芬•班農(nóng)(Stephen Bannon)，被指建立了一個由忠誠者組成的替代網(wǎng)絡(luò)，破壞內(nèi)閣做出的決策。

So is it plausible to think of a cabinet coup. No one that I spoke to in Munich was making any firm predictions. But few were prepared to say with confidence that Mr Trump will serve a full four-year term.

因此，有關(guān)內(nèi)閣政變的想法似乎是很有道理的。在慕尼黑與我交談過的人士中，沒人給出任何肯定預(yù)測。但也沒多少人會肯定地表示特朗普能做滿四年任期。