朝鮮試射中程導(dǎo)彈將引發(fā)多重效應(yīng)

North Korea on Sunday launched its first ballistic missile since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, presenting the new administration with its first potential foreign policy flashpoint.

朝鮮周日發(fā)射自唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)就任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)以來(lái)首枚彈道導(dǎo)彈，給美國(guó)新政府帶來(lái)外交政策方面第一個(gè)潛在的沖突引爆點(diǎn)。

The launch sparked a wave of condemnation from world leaders, including Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe who, in joint remarks with Mr Trump, called it “absolutely intolerable”.

這次發(fā)射激起世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的同聲譴責(zé)，包括日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)，他在與特朗普聯(lián)合發(fā)表的聲明中稱此舉“絕對(duì)不能容忍”。

Pyongyang fired the medium-range rocket shortly before 8am local time and it flew 500km before crashing into the Sea of Japan, according to the US and South Korean military.

據(jù)美國(guó)和韓國(guó)軍方表示，平壤方面在當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間周日早上近8時(shí)發(fā)射了一枚中程火箭，火箭飛行500公里后落入日本海。

“This was not reckless, but rather a carefully chosen behaviour by Pyongyang,” said Bong Youngshik, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul.

“此舉并不魯莽，而是平壤方面一個(gè)精心選擇的行為，”首爾延世大學(xué)(Yonsei University)的朝鮮專家奉英植(Bong Young-shik)表示。

“By choosing not to fire a long-range missile, North Korea didn’t shut the door completely on the Trump administration. Rather, they tried to deliver a message of displeasure and an early warning that Trump would be better off choosing engagement policies.”

“選擇不發(fā)射遠(yuǎn)程導(dǎo)彈意味著，朝鮮沒有對(duì)特朗普政府完全關(guān)起門來(lái)。相反，他們?cè)噲D傳達(dá)一個(gè)信息，表明自己的不快，并做出一個(gè)初步警告，特朗普最好選擇接觸政策。”

Following two nuclear and more than 20 ballistic missile tests, North Korea has again vaulted on top of the leaderboard of potential geopolitical flashpoints. 去年進(jìn)行了兩次核試驗(yàn)和20多次彈道導(dǎo)彈試驗(yàn)后，朝鮮在地緣政治潛在沖突引爆點(diǎn)的排行榜上再次躍升至最高位置。

Before leaving the Oval Office, then US president Barack Obama told Mr Trump that North Korea would be his most immediate foreign policy challenge.

巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在離開白宮橢圓形辦公室之前告訴特朗普，朝鮮將是他最迫在眼前的外交政策挑戰(zhàn)。

In January, North Korea announced it could a launch long-range ballistic missile, capable of hitting the US, whenever it chooses.

朝鮮在1月宣布，它可能在自己選擇的任何時(shí)間發(fā)射一枚能夠打到美國(guó)的遠(yuǎn)程彈道導(dǎo)彈。

However, it has not yet demonstrated it is able to do so and the announcement elicited a searing response from Mr Trump, who said “it won’t happen”.

然而，該國(guó)尚未展示它有能力這么做，而特朗普做出尖銳的回應(yīng)，稱“這不會(huì)發(fā)生”。

There are also growing concerns about North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. During a visit to Seoul earlier this month, James Mattis, US defence secretary, warned Pyongyang that the use of nuclear weapons would be met with an “effective and overwhelming” response.

各方還日益關(guān)切朝鮮的核武實(shí)力。美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)詹姆斯•馬蒂斯(James Mattis)本月早些時(shí)候訪問首爾期間警告平壤，使用核武器將招致“有效和勢(shì)不可擋的的”回?fù)簟?/p>

The latest missile test came amid a high-profile visit by Mr Abe to Mr Trump’s “winter White House” residence in Florida.

朝鮮進(jìn)行最新的導(dǎo)彈試射之際，安倍晉三正高調(diào)訪問特朗普在佛羅里達(dá)州的“冬天白宮”居所。

In joint remarks following the launch, Mr Trump reconfirmed the US commitment to its “great ally” Japan — remarks that raised eyebrows in Seoul for failing to mention South Korea.

在朝鮮導(dǎo)彈試射后美日發(fā)表的聯(lián)合聲明中，特朗普再次確認(rèn)了美國(guó)對(duì)其“偉大盟國(guó)”日本的承諾，但他的表態(tài)在首爾引發(fā)錯(cuò)愕，因?yàn)樘乩势諞]有提到韓國(guó)。

“By timing the launch with the Japan-US meeting, North Korea wanted to see how strongly Mr Trump will react and what actual steps the US and Japan will take beyond the verbal condemnation,” said Hajime Izumi, a North Korean expert at Tokyo International University.

“在日美峰會(huì)期間試射導(dǎo)彈表明，朝鮮希望看看特朗普會(huì)作出多強(qiáng)烈的反應(yīng)，以及美國(guó)和日本除了口頭譴責(zé)以外會(huì)采取什么實(shí)際步驟，”東京國(guó)際大學(xué)(Tokyo International University)的朝鮮專家伊豆見元(Izumi Hajime)表示。

“North Korean officials themselves are very uncertain because there are no precedents to rely on in regards to Mr Trump,” Mr Izumi added.

“朝鮮官員自己很不確定，因?yàn)樵谌绾闻c特朗普打交道方面沒有先例可循，”伊豆見元補(bǔ)充說(shuō)。

For Mr Bong, the latest test will be quietly welcomed by China.

首爾延世大學(xué)的奉英植認(rèn)為，中國(guó)將暗自歡迎朝鮮最新的導(dǎo)彈試射。

“Beijing needs a barking dog to harass the Trump administration as it cannot do it up front,” he said. “They will welcome the test as a reminder to Trump that he needs China’s co-operation.”

“北京方面需要一只咆哮的狗來(lái)騷擾特朗普政府，因?yàn)樗荒茏约禾鰜?lái)那么做，”他表示。“他們將歡迎此次試射，以提醒特朗普，他需要中國(guó)的合作。”

The launch is also likely to complicate politics on the Korean peninsula. 此次試射還可能使朝鮮半島的政治復(fù)雜化。

Following a vast corruption scandal last year, Seoul is gearing up for a potential presidential election, with Liberal party candidate, Moon Jae-in, currently leading the polls.

繼去年爆發(fā)一場(chǎng)特大腐敗丑聞后，首爾正在加緊準(zhǔn)備一場(chǎng)潛在的總統(tǒng)選舉，自由派政黨候選人文在寅(Moon Jae-in)目前在民意調(diào)查中領(lǐng)先。

Mr Moon has traditionally adopted a more dovish approach to Pyongyang and the latest provocation will be seen as a blow to his prospects.

文在寅歷來(lái)對(duì)平壤方面采取較為鴿派的姿態(tài)，朝鮮的最新挑釁將被視為不利于他的選情。

The country is also in the midst of deploying a controversial US anti-missile shield, a development that has rankled China.

韓國(guó)還正在部署有爭(zhēng)議的美國(guó)反導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)，此舉惹怒了中國(guó)。

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense platform, or Thaad, is ostensibly meant to protect against the threat from North Korea, but has raised the ire of Beijing which says it undermines its own nuclear deterrent and fears it will be used to help US surveillance.

末段高空區(qū)域防御系統(tǒng)(THAAD，中文簡(jiǎn)稱：薩德)表面上是為了抵御來(lái)自朝鮮的威脅，但部署該系統(tǒng)的計(jì)劃使北京方面憤怒，稱其破壞了中國(guó)的核威懾，擔(dān)心它將被美國(guó)用于對(duì)中國(guó)境內(nèi)進(jìn)行偵察。

Following the announcement, China launched an array of retaliatory measures on South Korean companies.

部署薩德的計(jì)劃宣布后，中國(guó)對(duì)韓國(guó)企業(yè)采取了一系列報(bào)復(fù)措施。

“North Korea’s latest test will exacerbate the discord over Thaad. [South Korean] conservatives will point to it as a reminder of the importance of the missile shield,” said Mr Bong.

“朝鮮的最新測(cè)試將加劇圍繞薩德的不和。(韓國(guó))保守派人士將把它作為一個(gè)例證，說(shuō)明反導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)的重要性，”奉英植表示。