Lex專欄：有比沒有好的中國式違約

A debt default is generally not cause for celebration. Not defaulting, by contrast, should be a good thing. But in China, a lack of defaults has said more about inadequate processes for dealing with failing companies than it does about their financial health — not to mention a lack of political will to allow companies to fail. That is slowly changing.

債務(wù)違約通常不是慶祝的理由。相反，沒有發(fā)生違約應(yīng)該是好事。然而在中國，缺少違約更多地說明了處理失敗企業(yè)的程序不完善——且不提缺乏讓企業(yè)倒閉的政治意愿，而不是它們的財(cái)務(wù)狀況良好。這種狀況正在慢慢改變。

Lately, defaults have been rising as the government tries to restructure ailing state-owned enterprises. Wind, a data service provider, notes a “flurry” of defaults in the past three months, bringing the accumulated total of sour loans to $8bn — three times higher than at the end of last year. SOEs, once considered immune, account for nearly half of that.

近來，隨著中國政府試圖重組處境艱難的國有企業(yè)，違約在增加。數(shù)據(jù)服務(wù)提供商萬得資訊(Wind)指出，過去三個(gè)月出現(xiàn)了一輪違約潮，令累計(jì)壞賬總規(guī)模達(dá)到80億美元——三倍于上一個(gè)年底的數(shù)字。其中，一度被認(rèn)為不會違約的國企占了上述壞賬來源的近一半。

As part of its push to open its markets to international capital, China is keen to stimulate overseas interest in its debt. Although the third-largest domestic bond market in the world, and growing rapidly, China’s fixed income market totalling nearly $10tn is still less than a third of the US market’s value. In an effort to grow, regulations regarding foreign investor access have been loosened. Last year the interbank bond market, which accounts for the majority of bond trading in China, was opened to qualified foreigners.

作為將其市場向國際資本開放的努力的一部分，中國正急于刺激海外對其債務(wù)的投資興趣。盡管是全球第三大國內(nèi)債券市場并且成長迅速，但中國近10萬億美元的固定收益市場規(guī)模仍不到美國市場的三分之一。為提振債市增長，有關(guān)外國投資者投資債市的監(jiān)管條例已被放寬。去年，占中國債券交易大頭的銀行間債券市場已向符合資格的外國投資者開放。

Efforts to pique foreign appetite have so far been only partly successful. Overseas investor buying increased as the market rallied last year. Still, they hold just 2 per cent of the total. Disincentives abound. Credit risk and the absence of a transparent process to handle defaults is still a deterrent. Poor-quality issuer information and questionable local ratings (nearly all issuers are rated A plus or above, according to Wind) do not help. And a period of renminbi depreciation hardly makes RMB assets attractive.

到目前為止，試圖激發(fā)境外投資興趣的努力只取得了部分成功。隨著去年市場的上揚(yáng)，境外投資者的買入有所增加。話雖如此，他們持有的債券只占總數(shù)的2%。這其中的抑制因素很多。信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和缺乏處理違約的透明程序仍是一個(gè)嚇阻因素。低品質(zhì)的發(fā)行人信息和有問題的國內(nèi)評級(根據(jù)萬得資訊的數(shù)據(jù)，幾乎所有發(fā)行人都被評為A+或以上)也沒有幫助。而一輪人民幣貶值也無助于讓人民幣資產(chǎn)有吸引力。

Fitch Rating notes that defaults have added to recent disruption in the asset class. Tightening liquidity and the expectation of rising US yields have led to a market sell-off; onshore corporate bond issuance fell one-third versus the previous year for the month of December as 82 deals were cancelled or delayed. In the long run, however, better allocated capital in China will bring clearer rewards.

惠譽(yù)評級(Fitch Ratings)指出，違約加劇了這種資產(chǎn)類別近期的震蕩。流動(dòng)性收緊和對美國收益率攀升的預(yù)期導(dǎo)致了一輪市場拋售。2016年12月，隨著82宗交易被取消或推遲，在岸公司債券發(fā)行規(guī)模同比下降三分之一。不過，從長遠(yuǎn)來說，在中國配置更佳的資本將帶來更清晰的回報(bào)。