美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能超預(yù)期加息

Many officials of the US Federal Reserve said the central bank could be forced to lift rates higher than expected if Congress passed conomy-boosting tax cuts next year, according to minutes of the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2016.

根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed) 2016年最后一次政策會(huì)議的紀(jì)要，許多美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員表示，如果明年國(guó)會(huì)通過提振經(jīng)濟(jì)的減稅方案，這家央行可能被迫把利息升高至超出預(yù)期的程度。

Almost all Fed officials meeting on December 13-14 said the risks of growth surpassing their forecasts had grown because of the possibility of more “expansionary” fiscal policy under president-elect Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress.

幾乎所有參加12月13日至14日會(huì)議的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員表示，增長(zhǎng)超過預(yù)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有所加大，因?yàn)楫?dāng)選總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和共和黨控制的國(guó)會(huì)可能推出更具“擴(kuò)張性”的財(cái)政政策。

However policymakers also stressed that it was too soon to jump to firm conclusions about what fiscal policy would actually look like. “Participants agreed that it was too early to know what changes in these policies would be implemented and how such changes might affect the economic outlook,” the minutes to the meeting said.

然而，這些政策制定者們還強(qiáng)調(diào)，至于未來財(cái)政政策究竟會(huì)是什么樣子，要得出明確結(jié)論還為時(shí)過早。會(huì)議紀(jì)要稱， “與會(huì)者一致認(rèn)為，要了解何種政策變化將得到實(shí)施，以及這些變化可能如何影響經(jīng)濟(jì)前景，還為時(shí)過早。”

The Fed on December 14 raised short-term rates for only the second time in a decade and predicted a quicker speed of tightening this year compared with the one-a-year pace in 2015 and 2016. Speaking after the meeting, Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, said the Fed was existing in a “cloud of uncertainty” as it weighs the possibility of tax and spending changes under the new Congress and administration.

去年12月14日，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上調(diào)短期利率，這是10年來美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)第二次加息。同時(shí)，與2015年和2016年每年加息一次的速度相比，預(yù)計(jì)今年的加息速度將加快。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)在會(huì)后表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在權(quán)衡新一屆國(guó)會(huì)和新一屆行政當(dāng)局領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下稅收和支出變化的可能性，它目前正被“不確定性陰云”籠罩。

Minutes of the meeting revealed on Wednesday show just how unclear the path of monetary policy is given Fed officials do not know what details will emerge from negotiations in Congress over the coming months. The possibility of a further surge in the dollar also re-emerged as an important risk factor.

周三公布的會(huì)議紀(jì)要顯示，在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員不知道未來數(shù)月國(guó)會(huì)談判將得出什么具體結(jié)果的情況下，貨幣政策的路徑是多么不清晰。美元進(jìn)一步飆漲的可能性也再次成為一個(gè)重要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。