不能光靠中國人爆買，日本打算解禁博彩業(yè)

TOKYO — Japan is set to deal itself into the multibillion-dollar casino industry.

東京——日本打算進入數(shù)以十億美元計的博彩行業(yè)。

Lawmakers in the country this week cleared the way for the removal of a longstanding prohibition against gambling on blackjack, roulette and other casino games. The legislation was passed by a crucial panel on Tuesday and was expected to be approved as early as Wednesday.

本周，該國立法者為取消對21點和輪盤賭等賭博游戲的長期禁令掃清了道路。周二，這項立法得到一個重要審議小組的通過，預(yù)計將在周三早些時候獲得批準。

If enacted, as widely expected, it would complete an effort to make Japan attractive to gamblers. For years, Japanese businesses and the tax authorities have watched enviously as vast sums have poured into jurisdictions like Macau and Singapore, which have built sparkling casino resorts catering to international gamblers, especially those from China.

如果它能像廣泛預(yù)期的那樣得以實施，將實現(xiàn)讓日本吸引賭博者的目標(biāo)。多年來，日本的商業(yè)和稅收當(dāng)局羨慕地看著大量金錢流入澳門和新加坡等地區(qū)，那里修建了絢麗的賭場度假區(qū)，迎合國際賭博者的需求，尤其是中國的賭博者。

Japan is experiencing its own boom in Chinese tourism, and it sees casinos as an added way to cash in. Estimates of the potential size of the industry have ranged as high as $40 billion a year.

日本正從中國旅游業(yè)中實現(xiàn)自己的繁榮，它把賭場視為增加收入的新方法。對該行業(yè)潛在規(guī)模的估計有的甚至高達每年400億美元。

International casino operators see a chance to profit, too. The last time Japanese legislators took up the issue, in 2014, Sheldon G. Adelson, the billionaire chief executive of Las Vegas Sands, said his company would be willing to invest as much as $10 billion to develop a casino resort in the country.

國際賭場運營者也看到了商機。日本立法者上次在2014年提出這項議案時，拉斯維加斯金沙集團(Las Vegas Sands)的首席執(zhí)行官、億萬富翁謝爾登·G·埃德森(Sheldon G. Adelson)表示，他的公司愿意在該國投資高達100億美元，開發(fā)一個賭場度假村。

“For the investment community, Japan is seen as the crown jewel of Asian gaming development outside of Macau,” said Grant Govertsen, a research analyst at Union Gaming, an investment bank focused on gambling.

“在投資界，日本被視為澳門之外亞洲博彩業(yè)發(fā)展皇冠上的明珠，” 聯(lián)合博彩集團(Union Gaming)分析師格蘭特· 戈弗森(Grant Govertsen)說。聯(lián)合博彩集團是一家專做博彩業(yè)的投資銀行。

The most recent major market in Asia to legalize casinos was Singapore, which approved the introduction of two casino hotels a decade ago. With casino revenue of about $3.5 billion last year, Singapore, a Southeast Asian city-state, ranks as the second-biggest market in Asia behind Macau.

在亞洲，最近一個讓賭場合法化的主要市場是新加坡，它在10年前批準設(shè)立了兩家賭場酒店。去年，新加坡的賭場收入約為35億美元。在亞洲，這個東南亞城市國家是僅次于澳門的第二大博彩市場。

The Japanese market, with its large and affluent local population, could be even bigger.

日本市場可能更大，因為這里人口更多，更為富有。

“It would be shocking if Japan doesn’t become the No. 2 market in Asia on an overnight basis” once big resorts open, Mr. Govertsen said, adding that the exact size of the market is difficult to gauge until regulatory elements, like the number and location of licenses, are known.

戈弗森說，一旦這些大型賭場度假村開業(yè)， “如果日本沒有在一夜之間成為亞洲第二大市場，我會非常意外。”他還說，在相關(guān)的監(jiān)管規(guī)定出臺之前——比如審批的數(shù)量和地點——很難估量該市場的具體規(guī)模。

Uncertainties remain, even if the law passes. The first casinos would take years to license and build, and competition is already stiffening. Newer industry players like South Korea and the Philippines, chasing the same Chinese cash, are building big resorts of their own. China itself is under a cloud, as its breakneck pace of economic growth slows and as the authorities in Beijing seek to tighten control over outflows of money from the country.

即使法案得以通過，此事也仍存不確定性。第一批賭場將需要花費數(shù)年時間獲得審批和修建，而競爭本身已經(jīng)非常激烈。韓國和菲律賓等該行業(yè)新生力量也在追逐中國的金錢，修建他們自己的大型度假村。中國本身則處境艱難，因為它快速的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展開始放緩，而且北京當(dāng)局試圖加緊對資金外流的控制。

The scheduled vote comes as Japan looks for new sources of economic growth. Tourism is emerging as a newly powerful force in the country, where the economy has traditionally been geared more toward exporting cars and other manufactured goods than importing pleasure-seeking visitors. More than 20 million foreign tourists have made trips to Japan this year, triple the number from a decade ago, many from China’s swelling middle class.

在該立法即將得到表決之時，日本正在尋求新的經(jīng)濟增長點。旅游業(yè)正成為該國的一股強大的新力量，盡管其經(jīng)濟在過去主要依靠出口汽車等制造產(chǎn)品，而非吸引玩樂的游客。今年， 日本接待了2000多萬外國游客——這個數(shù)字是10年前的三倍——其中很多是中國不斷壯大的中產(chǎn)階級。

The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes the boom will ignite broader economic growth and make up for dwindling competitiveness in other industries — some of which, like consumer electronics, are now dominated by China.

安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)首相的政府希望該行業(yè)的繁榮會促進更廣泛的經(jīng)濟增長，彌補該國在其他行業(yè)中逐漸減弱的競爭力——其中一些行業(yè)，比如消費電子產(chǎn)品，現(xiàn)在由中國主導(dǎo)。

An end of the prohibition on casinos would not mean that anyone could build the next Caesars Palace in Japan. At first, licenses would be granted to two or three so-called integrated resorts — which combine casinos with hotels, conference halls and shopping centers — in major cities. Rules governing the bidding and licensing process, as well as the regulation of the casinos themselves, would be detailed in a separate law next year. Actual gambling is unlikely to begin before 2023, several analysts said.

賭場禁令的取消并不會意味著，任何人都能在日本修建下一個凱撒宮(Caesars Palace)。一開始只會在大城市批準兩三個所謂的綜合度假村——它們將賭場與酒店、會議廳和購物中心結(jié)合起來。競標(biāo)和審批過程的規(guī)則以及賭場本身的管理規(guī)定將于明年在另一部法律中詳細說明。幾位分析人士稱， 2023年之前，賭場運營不大可能真正開始。

Takashi Kiso, chief executive of the International Casino Institute, a consultancy that has been advising would-be entrants into the Japanese market, said ownership would probably take the form of joint ventures between international gambling groups and Japanese companies. MGM Resorts, Wynn Resorts and other large operators have also expressed interest, in addition to Las Vegas Sands.

國際博彩研究所(International Casino Institute)首席執(zhí)行官木曾隆(Takashi Kiso)表示，賭場的所有權(quán)形式很可能會是國際博彩集團和日本公司組成的合資企業(yè)。該咨詢公司已經(jīng)在為打算進入日本市場的幾家公司提供咨詢。除了拉斯維加斯金沙集團，美高梅國際酒店集團(MGM Resorts)和永利度假村(Wynn Resorts)等大型博彩公司也表示有興趣參與。

“Looking at the debate in Parliament, there’s a lot of resistance to the idea of 100 percent foreign-owned casinos, so that is probably off the table,” Mr. Kiso said.

“從國會的辯論可以看到，很多人反對設(shè)立全外資賭場，所以那很可能不在考慮范圍之內(nèi)，”木曾說。

Some forms of gambling are already legal in Japan. The country allows betting on horse, bicycle and boat racing, and it has a publicly run national lottery. Pachinko, a derivative of pinball played at thousands of noisy parlors around the country, has a gambling element that is technically illegal but is universally tolerated by politicians and law enforcement.

在日本，博彩業(yè)的某些形式已經(jīng)是合法的。該國允許對賽馬、自行車和賽艇比賽下注，還有一個公開發(fā)行的全國性彩票。日本各地成千上萬家嘈雜游樂廳里玩的日式彈珠游戲含有賭博成分，從嚴格意義上講，它是違法的，但是得到了政治人士和執(zhí)法者的普遍容忍。

Japan has been debating whether to legalize casinos since at least 1999. A bill similar to the one passed on Wednesday made progress in Parliament two years ago but never made it to a vote. Some lawmakers balked at the potential social problems caused by casinos. Among those opposed was Komeito, a Buddhist political party that is a junior partner in the governing coalition.

日本至少從1999年開始討論是否應(yīng)該讓賭場合法化。兩年前，一個與周三通過的法案類似的法案在國會取得進展，但最終未能投票。有些議員擔(dān)心賭場可能會造成一些社會問題。反對者包括佛教政黨公明黨(Komeito)，該黨是目前的執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟中的小黨。

Multiple opinion surveys have shown that more Japanese voters oppose legalizing casinos than support the idea.

多項民意調(diào)查顯示，日本選民中反對賭場合法化的人更多。

Since 2014, Mr. Abe’s party, the Liberal Democrats, has strengthened its hold on Parliament. It is now less reliant on Komeito and has found a new ally on the casino issue in Nippon Ishin no Kai, a small, right-leaning party with a support base in the western city of Osaka. Nippon Ishin no Kai has been lobbying for one of the first casinos to be built there.

從2014年起，安倍的自民黨(Liberal Democratic Party)加強了對國會的控制。它現(xiàn)在對公明黨的依賴程度降低了，并在賭場問題上找到了一個新盟友——右傾的小黨“日本維新會”(Nippon Ishin no Kai)，該黨的大本營在西部城市大阪，曾經(jīng)游說要將那里列為首批賭場的地點之一。