意大利民粹主義威脅歐盟未來(lái)

Europe’s fightback against populism was going well for a couple of hours. On Sunday afternoon, it emerged that the far-right candidate had lost the Austrian presidential election. But the good news from Austria was drowned out by bad news that same evening, from the other side of the Alps. Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, had lost his referendum on constitutional reform and confirmed that he will resign.

歐洲對(duì)民粹主義的反擊取得了幾個(gè)小時(shí)的勝利。上周日下午，有消息稱，極右翼候選人在奧地利總統(tǒng)大選中折戟。但當(dāng)晚來(lái)自阿爾卑斯山另一側(cè)的的壞消息吞噬了奧地利的這個(gè)好消息。意大利總理馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)在憲法改革公投中失利，并證實(shí)他將辭職。

The consequences for Europe of Italy’s referendum result are not as obviously dramatic as those of Britain’s referendum in June. The British voted to leave the EU. The Italians have simply rejected some complex constitutional changes, which many experts regarded as ill conceived in the first place.

意大利公投結(jié)果對(duì)歐洲造成的影響不像今年6月英國(guó)退歐公投那樣引人注目。英國(guó)人最終投票決定脫離歐盟(EU)。意大利人則反對(duì)一些復(fù)雜的憲法改革，很多專家認(rèn)為這些改革從一開(kāi)始就考慮不周。

And yet Brexit and the Renzi resignation do form part of the same story. The European project is under unprecedented strain. Britain’s decision to leave is the most striking evidence of this. But, in the long run, the unfolding crisis in Italy could pose a more severe threat to the survival of the EU. The reasons for this are political, economic and even geographic.

然而英國(guó)退歐和倫齊辭職卻是同一個(gè)故事的一部分。歐洲一體化正面臨空前壓力。英國(guó)決定脫歐就是最明顯的證據(jù)。但長(zhǎng)期而言，意大利正在爆發(fā)的危機(jī)可能會(huì)給歐盟的生存帶來(lái)更嚴(yán)重的威脅。其原因有政治的、經(jīng)濟(jì)的、甚至地理的。

Italy, unlike Britain, is one of the six founding members of the EU. The original European Economic Community was founded through the Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957. While the British were always the most Eurosceptic of the big EU nations, the Italians were traditionally the most enthusiastic unifiers.

與英國(guó)不同，意大利是歐盟6個(gè)創(chuàng)始成員國(guó)之一。原來(lái)的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體(European Economic Community)是通過(guò)1957年簽訂的《羅馬條約》(Treaty of Rome)創(chuàng)建的。英國(guó)一直是歐盟大國(guó)中最疑歐的，但意大利傳統(tǒng)上是最熱情的統(tǒng)一者。

But attitudes to the EU in Italy have changed profoundly — in response to the country’s long economic stagnation, the euro crisis and fears over illegal migration. It is hardly surprising that Italian voters are disillusioned with the status quo. Italy has lost at least 25 per cent of its industrial production since the financial crisis of 2008. Youth unemployment stands at almost 40 per cent. Unsurprisingly, many Italians associate the advent of the euro with a near-depression. Indeed, some economists believe the euro has been disastrous for Italy’s competitiveness, taking away the tools of currency devaluation and creating a deflationary environment that increases the debt burden.

但意大利對(duì)歐盟的態(tài)度發(fā)生了巨大變化，這是該國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期停滯、歐元危機(jī)以及對(duì)非法移民的擔(dān)憂的結(jié)果。意大利選民對(duì)現(xiàn)狀感到失望，這毫不令人意外。自2008年金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，意大利工業(yè)產(chǎn)量至少萎縮了25%。年輕人失業(yè)率維持在近40%的水平。難怪很多意大利人將歐元的問(wèn)世與幾近蕭條聯(lián)系在一起。實(shí)際上，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，歐元對(duì)于意大利的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力是災(zāi)難性的，它奪走了匯率貶值工具并創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)通縮環(huán)境，加重了債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。

Against this grim backdrop, it is possible that Mr Renzi will be one of the last Italian prime ministers to represent his country’s traditional pro-European stance. Of late, even he had taken to Brussels-bashing — expressing understandable disillusionment with a lack of help with the hundreds of thousands of refugees landing on Italian shores. The Renzi government has also chafed against the economic austerity prescribed in Berlin and Brussels.

在這種悲觀背景下，倫齊有可能成為最后一批代表意大利傳統(tǒng)親歐立場(chǎng)的意大利總理之一。最近，他甚至開(kāi)始抨擊歐盟——歐盟在解決抵達(dá)意大利海岸的數(shù)十萬(wàn)難民問(wèn)題上沒(méi)有提供幫助，他對(duì)此表達(dá)了可以理解的失望。倫齊政府還對(duì)德國(guó)和歐盟提出的經(jīng)濟(jì)緊縮方案感到憤怒。

Nonetheless, Mr Renzi remained basically pro-European. That is not true of the opposition parties that are now waiting in the wings. The Five Star Movement, led by comedian Beppe Grillo, played a prominent role in defeating Mr Renzi. Five Star is adamant in its demand that Italy regain sovereignty from Brussels and has proposed a referendum on leaving the euro. Mr Grillo also sees his movement as part of a general anti-establishment wave across the west and hailed the victory of Donald Trump in the US as a triumph over “the Freemasons, huge banking groups and the Chinese”.

然而，從根本上來(lái)說(shuō)，倫齊仍是親歐的。而蠢蠢欲動(dòng)的反對(duì)黨派則不是這樣。由喜劇演員貝佩•格里洛(Beppe Grillo)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的五星運(yùn)動(dòng)黨(Five Star Movement)在擊敗倫齊方面發(fā)揮了突出作用。該黨堅(jiān)決要求意大利應(yīng)從歐盟那里奪回主權(quán)，并提出就脫離歐元區(qū)舉行公投。格里洛還把他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的運(yùn)動(dòng)視為一場(chǎng)席卷西方的反建制普遍浪潮的一部分，并稱贊唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)贏得美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選是對(duì)“共濟(jì)會(huì)(freemason)、銀行大集團(tuán)以及中國(guó)”的勝利。

The reasons that Italian populism may ultimately threaten the EU even more profoundly than Brexit are not simply to do with Italy’s traditional commitment to the European ideal. Also crucial is the fact that Italy uses the euro while Britain has kept its own currency. So, while Brexit is a painful and complicated business, it does not directly threaten the survival of the single currency — or risk unleashing a financial crisis. However, the chain of events set off by Mr Renzi’s referendum defeat could potentially do both.

意大利民粹主義對(duì)歐盟的威脅可能最終會(huì)超過(guò)英國(guó)退歐，其原因不僅僅是與意大利一直以來(lái)對(duì)歐洲理想的承諾有關(guān)。同樣重要的是，意大利使用歐元，而英國(guó)保留自己的貨幣。因此，盡管英國(guó)脫歐是痛苦且復(fù)雜的，但不會(huì)直接威脅到歐元的生存，也不會(huì)引發(fā)一場(chǎng)金融危機(jī)。然而，倫齊公投失敗引發(fā)的一連串事件可能會(huì)造成這兩種結(jié)果。

The immediate danger is to the Italian banking system. In the new atmosphere of crisis, the proposed recapitalisation of troubled lenders — in particular Monte dei Paschi di Siena — is threatened. That could lead to demands for state bailouts, which will be difficult given that the state is already heavily indebted. Revived worries about the size of Italy’s debt could then frighten investors, driving up interest rates and threatening the solvency of the Italian state itself.

眼下的危險(xiǎn)是對(duì)意大利銀行業(yè)體系的威脅。在新的危機(jī)氣氛中，擬議的對(duì)境況不佳銀行的資本重組(特別是西雅那銀行(Monte dei Paschi di Siena))面臨危險(xiǎn)。這可能引發(fā)政府紓困的請(qǐng)求，鑒于意大利政府已背負(fù)沉重的債務(wù)，紓困將非常困難。再度產(chǎn)生的對(duì)于意大利債務(wù)規(guī)模的擔(dān)憂可能會(huì)讓投資者感到恐慌，這將推升利率并威脅意大利政府自己的償付能力。

It would be much harder to organise an EU bailout of Italy than it was to “rescue” Greece. Given the size of the economy, the amounts of money involved could be far larger — which would probably trigger a political revolt in the German parliament, particularly with parliamentary elections due there next September. At that point, the break-up of the euro would once again become a very real prospect.

與“救助”希臘相比，組織一場(chǎng)歐盟對(duì)意大利的紓困將困難得多。鑒于意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)的規(guī)模，紓困涉及的資金規(guī)模要大得多，這可能會(huì)引來(lái)德國(guó)議會(huì)的政治抗議，尤其是在明年9月德國(guó)將舉行議會(huì)選舉的情況下。到那時(shí)，歐元解體可能會(huì)再次成為一種非常切實(shí)的可能。

Set against this is the Italian talent for muddling through politically and economically while always avoiding ultimate collapse. The EU seems to have developed something of the same talent over the long years of the euro crisis.

不過(guò)，意大利具有一種在政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)上得過(guò)且過(guò)又總能避免最終垮臺(tái)的天分。在多年的歐元危機(jī)中，歐盟似乎也培養(yǎng)出了這種天分。

Yet even if Italy manages to patch together a new government and avoid a banking crisis, the broader picture is still bleak. Its economy is stagnating and its political centre is disintegrating. Nationalists and populists are also on the rise in EU countries including Spain, Poland, France and the Netherlands.

然而，即便意大利成功組建新政府并規(guī)避銀行業(yè)危機(jī)，更廣泛的前景仍然悲觀。意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在停滯，其政治中心正在瓦解。此外，民族主義者和民粹主義者也正在其他歐盟國(guó)家崛起，包括西班牙、波蘭、法國(guó)和荷蘭。

Britain has promised to submit its formal notification of its decision to leave the EU next March. That same month, the union’s leaders are meant to gather in Italy to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the signature of the Treaty of Rome. At this rate, it will be more of a wake than a party.

英國(guó)承諾將于明年3月遞交其正式退歐決定通知。同一個(gè)月，歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將在意大利聚首，慶?！读_馬條約》簽訂60周年。按照當(dāng)前的事態(tài)發(fā)展，那將更像是一場(chǎng)葬禮前的守夜，而非聚會(huì)。