委內(nèi)瑞拉通脹危機：商店收款不是點鈔而是稱重

Inflation in Venezuela is expected to reach 720 percent this year, with the largest bolívar bill now worth just five US cents on the black market.

委內(nèi)瑞拉的通貨膨脹今年預(yù)計將達到720%，在黑市上，最大面值的玻利瓦爾幣現(xiàn)在僅值5美分。

Some shopkeepers have reportedly taken to weighing rather than counting the wads of cash customers hand them, and standard-size wallets have become all but useless in the socialist South American state. Instead, many people stuff huge volumes of cash into handbags, money belts, or backpacks, in scenes analysts have said are suggestive of "runaway" inflation.

據(jù)報道，如今正常尺寸的錢包在這個南美社會主義國家已經(jīng)徹底派不上用場了，顧客付款時店主不會點鈔，而是給大把大把的現(xiàn)金稱重。許多人將大量鈔票塞滿手袋、腰包或背包。分析人士指出，這種情形是通貨膨脹“失控”的征兆。

In 2014, plummeting global oil prices decimated Venezuela's economy. President Nicolás Maduro responded by fixing the official exchange rate and ordering banks to print more cash, which ultimately devalued the currency further, while goods prices soared.

2014年，全球石油價格暴跌使委內(nèi)瑞拉經(jīng)濟遭受重創(chuàng)。該國總統(tǒng)尼古拉斯•馬杜羅為此固定官方匯率，命令銀行印制更多鈔票，而這些應(yīng)對措施最終導(dǎo)致貨幣進一步貶值，商品價格飆升。

The country of 30 million does not publish consumer-price data on a regular basis, but observers have said scenes on the streets of the capital, Caracas, are reminiscent of the past century's most chaotic cases of hyperinflation.

擁有3000萬人口的委內(nèi)瑞拉并未定期公布消費者價格指數(shù)，但是目擊者稱，該國首都加拉斯加街頭的場景讓人聯(lián)想到上世紀最混亂的惡性通脹危機。

Humberto Gonzalez, who runs a delicatessen in the city, said he uses the same scales to weigh slices of salty white cheese and the stacks of bolívar notes handed over by his customers.

溫貝托•岡薩雷斯在加拉斯加經(jīng)營一家熟食店，他說自己用稱咸味兒白奶酪的稱去計算顧客給他的成堆的玻利瓦爾幣。

"It’s sad," Mr Gonzalez told Bloomberg. "At this point, I think the cheese is worth more."

“可悲的是，我認為奶酪更值錢，” 岡薩雷斯對彭博社表示。

Jesus Casique, a consulting firm director, told the news site that although weighing cash was not ubiquitious, it was indicative of a financial crisis.

杰西•克拉斯科是一家咨詢公司的主管，他對彭博社表示，雖然給現(xiàn)金稱重的景象并非隨處可見，但這也是金融危機的預(yù)兆。

"When they start weighing cash, it’s a sign of runaway inflation," he said. "But Venezuelans don’t know just how bad it is because the government refuses to publish figures."

他說，“人們開始給現(xiàn)金稱重，就是通貨膨脹失控的標志，但委內(nèi)瑞拉人不知道情況有多糟，因為政府拒絕公布通脹數(shù)據(jù)。”

Oil makes up a staggering 95 percent of Venezuela's exports, and accounts for a quarter of the country's economy, with oil-related revenues having historically supplied roughly half the government budget. This kind of over-reliance on a single export notoriously depresses all other industries in a country, in a phenomenon known by economists as "Dutch Disease".

石油出口在委內(nèi)瑞拉的出口總額中占比高達95%，占該國經(jīng)濟總額的1/4。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，委內(nèi)瑞拉約一半的財政預(yù)算來源于與石油有關(guān)的稅收。眾所周知，這種過分依賴單一產(chǎn)品出口的經(jīng)濟模式會遏制該國其他行業(yè)的發(fā)展，經(jīng)濟學(xué)家將這種現(xiàn)象稱為“荷蘭病”。

When the price of oil on the global market collapsed by two-thirds in 2014, Venezuela had little else to fall back on, so a natural reaction would have been for the bolívar to collapse. But Mr Maduro, who succeeded Hugo Chávez following the revolutionary leader's death in 2013, instead tried to control the exchange rate, creating a massive black market for currency.

2014年，全球市場石油價格暴跌2/3，這讓委內(nèi)瑞拉的經(jīng)濟失去了依靠，玻利瓦爾幣自然會因此貶值。但革命領(lǐng)袖雨果•查維斯2013年去世后，接任總統(tǒng)的馬杜羅沒有采取控制貨幣匯率的措施，反而成就了一個巨大的貨幣黑市。

Figuring out scams to get dollars and then sell them for bolívars became hugely lucrative business for Venezuelans, setting off a feedback loop that drove the inflation rate higher and higher.

對于委內(nèi)瑞拉人來說，設(shè)局套取美金，然后將其兌換成玻利瓦爾幣成了非常有利可圖的生意。這個惡性循環(huán)讓通貨膨脹率越來越高。

In one of Caracas richer neighbourhoods, the owner of a tiny kiosk selling newspapers, cigarettes and snacks told the Washington Post that every evening he quietly stuffs a plastic bag full of the day’s earnings, around 100,000 bolívars (about £42) in notes of 10, 20, 50 and 100 bolívars. Venezuela has one of the highest crime rates in the world, and he said carrying that much cash frightens him.

在首都加拉加斯一處富人區(qū)有一家販賣報紙、香煙和零食的報亭，報亭老板告訴《華盛頓郵報》，每晚他都要把一天的收入悄悄塞進一個塑料袋，每天收入約為10萬玻利瓦爾幣(約42英鎊)，貨幣面值為10、20、50和100玻利瓦爾。今年42歲的報亭老板表示，委內(nèi)瑞拉是全球犯罪率最高的國家之一，帶著這么多現(xiàn)金讓他很害怕。

"All of Caracas is unsafe," the 42-year-old told the newspaper, opting not to give his name.

這位不愿透露姓名的男子告訴記者，“整個加拉加斯都不安全。”

His best-selling item is cigarettes, he said, which have climbed in price from 250 bolívars to 2,000 bolívars a pack — at least 20 bills.

他說，銷量最好的是香煙，其售價已經(jīng)從250玻利瓦爾幣漲到2000玻利瓦爾幣一包——這至少要二十張鈔票。

The shrinking value of the currency has meant that withdrawing the equivalent of £5 from an ATM produces a fistful of more than 100 bills. Some ATMs now need to be refilled every three hours, because the machines can only hold so much cash. This means there are often a limited number of functioning ATMs in Caracas, and long queues to withdraw money.

貨幣縮水意味著從自動取款機取出100多張鈔票才相當于5英鎊。由于自動取款機裝不下太多現(xiàn)金，有些機器現(xiàn)在每3小時就要續(xù)款。這意味著加拉加斯經(jīng)常只有少數(shù)自動取款機正常工作，而為了取錢人們總是排著長隊。

"Electronic payment is increasingly common in the country," Henkel Garcia, director of the Venezuelan economic think tank Econométrica, told the Washington Post. "The use of online payments is likely to have soared," he said.

委內(nèi)瑞拉經(jīng)濟智庫Econométrica的負責人漢高•加西亞對《華盛頓郵報》表示，“電子支付在委內(nèi)瑞拉越來越普遍，在線支付的使用量很可能飆升。”

But it is expensive for small businesses to buy and set up credit-card machines.

但是對于小企業(yè)來說，購買和安裝信用卡機器的開銷太大。

Mr Maduro, who has largely continued the socialist policies of his predecessor, blamed the situation on an "economic war" waged by his opponents in the business community and in the United States. But, in a sign his government recognises the severity of the problem, he recently announced the issue of larger-denomination bills, expected in January.

馬杜羅在很大程度上延續(xù)了其前任的社會主義政策，他將如今的狀況歸咎于美國和其商界對手發(fā)動的“經(jīng)濟戰(zhàn)”。但他近日宣布預(yù)計于明年1月發(fā)行更大面額的貨幣。這一跡象表明馬杜羅政府已經(jīng)認識到問題的嚴重性。

The notes are reportedly set to start at 500 bolivars and reach 20,000 bolivars.

據(jù)報道，新貨幣的面值在500到20000玻利瓦爾幣之間。

Until the notes are issued, however, the Venezuelan people are poorer than ever, while the country is awash with cash.

等到貨幣發(fā)行后，委內(nèi)瑞拉便擁有足夠現(xiàn)金，但該國人民只會更加貧窮。

Bremmer Rodrigues, who runs a bakery on the outskirts of Caracas, said his family are at a loss over what to do with their bags of bills. Every day his business takes in hundreds of thousands of bolívar, he said, which he hides around his office until packing them up in boxes to deposit at the bank. He said if someone looked in on him, he might be mistaken for a drug dealer.

布雷默•羅德里格斯在加拉加斯郊區(qū)經(jīng)營著一家面包店，他表示，成包的鈔票讓他們一家感到無所適從。羅德里格斯每天的生意收入有數(shù)十萬玻利瓦爾幣，他先把這些錢藏在辦公室附近，之后再打包裝箱存入銀行。羅德里格斯說，如果有人看見他，可能會誤以為他是毒品販子。

"I feel like Pablo Escobar," the 25-year-old told Bloomberg. "It’s a mountain of cash, every day more and more."

他告訴彭博社，“我感覺自己就像巴勃羅•埃斯科巴(注：哥倫比亞毒梟)，錢堆得跟山一樣，每天越來越多。”