人民幣兌美元跌至8年低點

The relentless rise of the dollar scorched emerging market currencies yesterday, sending China’s renminbi to its weakest level in eight years, while India’s rupee plumbed a record low.

美元昨日大幅上漲促使新興市場貨幣全面下跌，人民幣跌至8年來最低水平，而印度盧比跌至創(chuàng)紀錄低點。

Broad currency weakness against the dollar has come as the bond market fully expects policy tightening by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting. Investors are also looking to next year and trying to gauge the extent of further Fed tightening under the proposed fiscal stimulus from president-elect Donald Trump.

新興市場貨幣普遍對美元疲弱之際，債券市場完全預計美聯(lián)儲(Fed)將在12月的議息會議上收緊政策。投資者也在展望明年，試圖判斷在美國候任總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)提議的財政刺激方案下，美聯(lián)儲會在多大程度上進一步收緊政策。

Several EM currencies fell to record lows or levels last seen during the Asian financial crisis of 1998 as investors rotated out of the sector into US assets, including stock markets, which traded around record highs into yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

多種新興市場貨幣跌至創(chuàng)紀錄低點或者1998年亞洲金融危機期間的水平。投資者撤出新興市場，轉投美國資產，包括美國股市——日前創(chuàng)出歷史新高的美國股市昨日感恩節(jié)休市。

The renminbi touched Rmb6.9023 to the dollar.

人民幣兌美元匯率觸及1美元兌6.9023元人民幣。

Analysts said activity was reminiscent of the 2013 taper tantrum, when the US central bank announced plans to trim its bond-buying programme, prompting investors to pull money from the bond market, sending yields on US debt higher.

分析師們表示，這令人想起2013年的“縮減恐慌”(taper tantrum)，當時美聯(lián)儲宣布了縮減其債券購買項目的計劃，促使投資者將資金撤出債券市場，推動美國債券收益率上揚。

“There is a huge temptation to anoint this as a second taper tantrum,” said Koon Chow, a UBP strategist. “But this time around we have the prospect of stronger US GDP growth driving up US yields and the dollar. The difference means stronger global commodity prices, which will be helpful for commodity producers in emerging markets.

瑞士聯(lián)合私立銀行(UBP)策略師Koon Chow表示：“人們肯定會忍不住認為這是第二次‘縮減恐慌’，但這次是美國GDP增長更為強勁的前景推升了美國債券收益率和美元。這種不同意味著全球大宗商品價格將會更為強勁，這將有助于新興市場的大宗商品生產商。”

“Outflows by retail investors from emerging markets are still in their early days.”

“散戶從新興市場撤出的趨勢仍處于初期。”

Among the big shifts across EM foreign exchange, the onshore renminbi touched its weakest point since June 2008 , eating into its relative resilience against the dollar since the US election on November 8. It has fallen about 2 per cent against the dollar since then.

新興市場外匯的重大轉變包括，在岸人民幣觸及2008年6月以來的最低水平，侵蝕了11月8日美國大選后人民幣對美元的相對彈性。自美國大選以來，人民幣兌美元匯率下跌了大約2%。

The rupee reached Rs68.8600 against the dollar, its weakest level on record. India’s currency has also been caught in the downdraft from economic disruption caused by prime minister Narendra Modi’s ban on high-value bank notes, a policy designed to cut corruption and counterfeiting.

印度盧比兌美元匯率為1美元兌68.8600盧比，創(chuàng)下歷史最低水平。盧比還因印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)禁止大額鈔票流通之舉擾亂經濟而步入下降通道;這項政策的本意是打擊腐敗和假幣。

Malaysia’s ringgit was at its weakest point since the Asian financial crisis of 1998, down 0.5 on the day at 4.4675 ringgit per dollar.

馬來西亞的林吉特也處于1998年亞洲金融危機以來的最低水平，當日兌美元匯率下跌0.5%，至1美元兌4.4675林吉特。

The Philippine peso also passed a milestone last seen in 1998, hitting 50 pesos to the dollar.

菲律賓比索也刷新了1998年創(chuàng)下的最低紀錄，觸及1美元兌50比索的水平。

Mexico’s peso was down 0.4 per cent at 20.7303 to the dollar, some 3 per cent from its recent all-time low of 21.3942.

墨西哥比索下跌0.4%，至1美元兌20.7303比索，僅比其最近創(chuàng)下的21.3942歷史最低點高3%左右。

“There is little doubt the Trump policy agenda of domestic reflation and negative views on trade/immigration is contributing to this exit of capital from EM,” said Tom Kenny, senior analyst at ANZ.

澳新銀行(ANZ)高級分析師湯姆•肯尼(Tom Kenny)表示：“毫無疑問，特朗普關于國內再通脹的政策議程以及對貿易和移民的負面看法導致了新興市場的這波資金撤出。”

“However, there are a number of other factors contributing to the sell-off, including unfavourable political developments in Malaysia and the Philippines and ongoing worries about Chinese capital outflows.”

“然而，此次新興市場拋售還有其他許多因素，包括馬來西亞和菲律賓不利的政治動態(tài)以及對中國資本外流的持續(xù)擔憂。”

Reporting by Peter Wells and Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong and Michael Hunter in London

彼得•韋爾斯(Peter Wells)、康河信(Hudson Lockett)香港，邁克爾•亨特(Michael Hunter)倫敦報道