特朗普與中東棋局

Seek him out early and shower him with praise. Offer political transactions and promise to help make America great. Arm yourself with hard facts and, above all, avoid irritating him because he’s easily provoked.

早點找到他，對他不吝溢美之詞。提出政治交易并承諾幫美國再次偉大。用無可動搖的事實武裝你自己，最重要的是，要避免激怒他，因為他一點就著。

That’s the kind of the advice I heard Americans sharing with their Middle Eastern friends as the battle for Donald Trump’s heart and mind gets under way. The US president-elect’s policies are still a mystery but his character and love of the deal are well documented.

這是在贏得特朗普的心和頭腦之戰(zhàn)打響之際，我聽到美國人分享給其中東朋友的建議。這位美國當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)的政策仍然是個謎，但是他的性格特點及熱衷交易的本性是有據(jù)可查的。

Like much of the world, the Middle East was stunned by the election of a political neophyte with no foreign policy experience, and no links to the Washington establishment they have courted for decades. A foreign policy forum I attended in Abu Dhabi underlined how confident officials in the region were about a Hillary Clinton victory. Just before the election, in fact, some of her advisers had held talks in the Gulf as they plotted her Middle East strategy.

就像世界大部分地方一樣，中東也因這個從沒有外交經(jīng)驗、且與他們示好了數(shù)十年的華盛頓建制派毫無關(guān)聯(lián)的政治新手當(dāng)選美國總統(tǒng)而震驚。我在阿布扎比參加的一個外交政策論壇突顯了中東官員對希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)獲勝是多么有信心。事實上，就在大選前，希拉里的幾個顧問還在海灣地區(qū)舉行了會談，策劃她的中東戰(zhàn)略。

Instead, a region that is all too familiar with the dangers of populism, polarisation and trafficking in semi-truths watched with dismay as the US elected a leader whose approach to the Middle East rests on a few slogans — a promise to get tough with Iran and even tougher with Islamists.

結(jié)果，這個對民粹主義、兩極分化以及販賣半謠言的危險太熟悉不過的地區(qū)，只能眼睜睜地看著美國選出一個對中東的策略僅停留在一些口號——承諾強硬對待伊朗、更強硬地對待伊斯蘭主義者——的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。

At this early stage, two regional winners appear to have emerged. The first is Israel’s far right, which is cheering Mr Trump’s election, expecting him to give up on the idea of a Palestinian state. The second is Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the Egyptian president, who has made it his mission to eradicate the Muslim Brotherhood and has been hailed by Mr Trump as a “fantastic guy”. Half jokingly, some analysts say the United Arab Emirates too could benefit from Mr Trump’s presidency, if only because he is familiar with Dubai, where he is developing a golf course.

在特朗普獲勝后的初期階段，該地區(qū)似乎出現(xiàn)了兩個贏家。第一個是為特朗普當(dāng)選歡呼的以色列極右翼分子，他們希望特朗普放棄承認(rèn)巴勒斯坦國的想法。第二個贏家是埃及總統(tǒng)阿卜杜勒•法塔赫•塞西(Abdel Fattah al-Sisi)，他以鏟除穆斯林兄弟會(Muslim Brotherhood)為己任，被特朗普稱贊為“很棒的家伙”。一些分析人士半開玩笑地說，阿聯(lián)酋也可能從特朗普當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)受益，因為他在迪拜開發(fā)一個高爾夫球場，對這里十分熟悉。

Across the Gulf, however, officials still don’t know what to make of Mr Trump. But given widespread disenchantment with the administration of Barack Obama and its perceived pivot towards Iran, Sunni Arab states are hoping the incoming leader will rekindle the love affair with America. Officials speak cautiously of potential opportunities if the US drops its flirtation with Tehran.

然而，縱觀整個海灣地區(qū)，官員們?nèi)匀徊恢涝撊绾慰创乩势?。但考慮到他們普遍對巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)政府感到失望，也對他們認(rèn)為的奧巴馬政府把重心轉(zhuǎn)向伊朗感到失望，遜尼派的阿拉伯國家希望這位新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人能帶來新的蜜月期。中東官員謹(jǐn)慎地談到如果美國不再與伊朗眉來眼去可能出現(xiàn)的機(jī)會。

Yet the president-elect could prove too zealous even for hardline opponents of Iran. Take the nuclear agreement, which Mr Trump has so often railed against. However much Gulf states dislike the accord, no one is advocating its reversal. The Trump administration should focus on strong enforcement and call out violations, say Gulf officials; and it should punish Iran for its meddling in Arab affairs, from Syria to Iraq, from Bahrain to Yemen.

不過，即使對于伊朗的強硬派對手來說，這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)可能也太瘋狂了。以特朗普常常炮轟的核協(xié)議為例。不管海灣國家多么不喜歡該協(xié)議，沒人主張推翻它。海灣地區(qū)的官員表示，特朗普政府應(yīng)該把精力放在強有力地執(zhí)行該協(xié)議并且大聲指出違反該協(xié)議的舉動;它應(yīng)該懲罰伊朗干涉阿拉伯事務(wù)——從敘利亞到伊拉克、從巴林到也門。

This list of wishes, however, will clash with two of Mr Trump’s instincts: an inclination towards disengagement and a questioning of the value of alliances.

然而，這份愿望清單將有悖于特朗普的兩個本能：置身事外的傾向以及對結(jié)盟意義的質(zhì)疑。

One risk facing a Trump presidency is that raising the pressure on Iran could provoke the country to withdraw from the nuclear agreement and accelerate its pursuit of an atomic bomb. Meanwhile, traditional Sunni allies will be left to confront the resulting explosion in tensions alone.

特朗普擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)面臨的一個風(fēng)險是，對伊朗進(jìn)一步施壓可能會促使伊朗退出核協(xié)議并且加快研制核彈。與此同時，傳統(tǒng)的遜尼派盟友將被迫獨自面對這導(dǎo)致的緊張驟升。

Mr Trump will also find every move on the Middle East chessboard has a knock-on effect. Consider Syria: he favours greater co-operation with Russia. This would bolster the Assad regime — as well as its primary ally, Iran, at a time when the intention is to weaken Tehran. Joining hands with Moscow would also alienate Saudi Arabia, a leading backer of Syria’s rebels and arch-enemy of Iran.

特朗普也會發(fā)現(xiàn)，在中東棋盤上的一舉一動都會帶來連鎖反應(yīng)?？紤]一下敘利亞問題：他支持加大與俄羅斯合作。這將支持阿薩德政權(quán)——及其主要盟友伊朗，而目的本來是削弱伊朗。美國與俄羅斯聯(lián)手，還將疏遠(yuǎn)沙特阿拉伯——敘利亞反對派的主要支持者以及伊朗的死敵。

The other risk for the region is that even if Mr Trump modifies his more extreme positions, the rhetoric from both him and his team can still do immeasurable damage — radicalising more Muslims and feeding the ranks of extremist groups that the president-elect has vowed to fight. Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s choice for national security adviser, has said that Islam is not a religion as much as a political ideology and has compared it to a “cancer”. Neither he nor Mr Trump, moreover, appear to distinguish between different types of Islamists — political or extremist.

該地區(qū)面臨的另一個風(fēng)險是，即便特朗普緩和他更為極端的一些立場，他和他團(tuán)隊的言論仍然可能帶來不可估量的傷害——使更多穆斯林變得激進(jìn)、使這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)發(fā)誓要打擊的極端組織的隊伍進(jìn)一步壯大。特朗普選擇的國家安全顧問邁克爾•弗林(Michael Flynn)稱伊斯蘭教與其說是宗教不如說是政治意識形態(tài)，并且把伊斯蘭教比作“癌癥”。此外，無論他還是特朗普似乎都不會區(qū)分不同類型的伊斯蘭教信仰者——政治人士或是極端分子。

It won’t be long, though, before Mr Trump discovers that, in the quicksands of the Middle East, the tiniest of mis-steps can turn quickly into a big, bad crisis.

不過，用不了多久特朗普就會發(fā)現(xiàn)，在中東的流沙里，哪怕邁錯極小的一步都可能很快引發(fā)一場嚴(yán)重的大危機(jī)。