中國將引領(lǐng)全球化？

Donald Trump was elected US president on a platform of anti-globalism and, in particular, on a promise to change or withdraw from America’s existing trade agreements and kill the ones in the pipeline.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)以反對全球化、特別是承諾改變或是退出美國現(xiàn)有貿(mào)易協(xié)定、并且扼殺籌備中貿(mào)易協(xié)定的競選綱領(lǐng)，當(dāng)選了美國總統(tǒng)。

The Trans-Pacific Partnership was already in trouble before the election; Trump’s victory seems to have given it the coup de grâce. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, meanwhile, now looks set to be stillborn.

在大選開始前，《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》(TPP)已然處于困境之中;特朗普的獲勝似乎給了它致命一擊。與此同時，《跨大西洋貿(mào)易與投資伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》(TTIP)如今似乎也將胎死腹中。

That is, as far as US participation goes. What the American turn inwards means for the rest of the world is an open question. There are those who think the loss of US leadership on international economic integration will embolden protectionism elsewhere — especially as it comes on the heels of the protectionist vandalism that is Brexit — and sap the will of those who want to keep their economies open or even open them further. They will point to Europe, whose free-trade deal with Canada was passed by a whisker last month, and that only conditionally.

準(zhǔn)確的說，是如果只考慮美國的參與程度的話。美國人把重心轉(zhuǎn)向國內(nèi)對世界其他地區(qū)意味著什么，目前不得而知。有人認(rèn)為，缺少美國對國際經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，將助長各地保護(hù)主義——特別是在英國退歐造成保護(hù)主義破壞性影響之后——并削弱那些希望保持經(jīng)濟(jì)開放、甚至進(jìn)一步開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的人的意愿。他們將以歐洲為例——歐洲與加拿大的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定上個月勉強(qiáng)通過，而且是帶有條件的。

But there is another possibility, which is that victory of anti-globalism in the US and the UK galvanises others to fight harder for the continued lowering of national barriers.

但是，還有另一種可能，美國和英國反全球化的勝利，會刺激其他人更加努力地繼續(xù)降低國家貿(mào)易壁壘。

Cue John Key, the prime minister of New Zealand. At the Apec (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit in Lima last week, he defiantly vowed to push ahead with trade integration in the Pacific. He suggested tweaking the deal to make it more attractive to the Trump administration — including, jokingly, by naming it the Trump-Pacific Partnership — but, more importantly, made clear that the other TPP partners should seriously consider going ahead with the deal even without US participation. Peru’s president, too, warned against protectionism and against giving up on the TPP.

比如新西蘭總理約翰•基(John Key)。在上周于利馬召開的亞太經(jīng)合組織(APEC)峰會上，他公開發(fā)誓要推進(jìn)太平洋地區(qū)的貿(mào)易一體化。他建議，調(diào)整協(xié)定內(nèi)容以增加對特朗普政府的吸引力——包括，開玩笑地，把該協(xié)定命名為《特朗普太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》(Trump-Pacific Partnership)——但更重要的是，他明確表示TPP其他伙伴國應(yīng)該認(rèn)真考慮，在沒有美國參與的情況下繼續(xù)推進(jìn)該協(xié)定。秘魯總統(tǒng)也告誡不要實行保護(hù)主義和放棄TPP。

Meanwhile, Beijing has responded nimbly to Trump’s election by encouraging America’s likely-to-be-spurned TPP partners to join it in building a free-trade area including China instead. The world’s second-largest economy is already involved in several regional trade initiatives that are beginning to be touted as alternatives to TPP. Australia is showing interest in the move, which would sideline the US.

與此同時，北京方面對特朗普當(dāng)選美國總統(tǒng)作出機(jī)敏的反應(yīng)——鼓勵有可能被特朗普一腳踢開的TPP伙伴國跟中國一道建立一個包括中國在內(nèi)的自貿(mào)區(qū)。這個世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體已經(jīng)加入了多個區(qū)域貿(mào)易計劃，這些計劃正開始被吹捧為TPP的替代品。澳大利亞對這一將美國剔除在外的舉動表示出了興趣。

It is a strange world when China becomes the champion of global economic openness. But it is an entirely logical one, if the US does indeed decide to abdicate leadership. As the FT’s Shawn Donnan puts it, when outgoing President Barack Obama met his counterparts at the Apec summit, he may have felt “he is handing the Chinese leader the keys to the global economy”. He quotes the Peterson Institute’s Adam Posen as pointing out that: “You can’t beat something with nothing, and the Chinese are offering something.”

中國成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)開放的領(lǐng)頭羊，這著實是個奇怪的世界。但如果美國確實決定放棄領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)，這個世界完全符合邏輯。正如英國《金融時報》的肖恩•唐南(Shawn Donnan)指出的那樣，在即將離任的美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在APEC峰會上與其他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人會面時，他可能覺得“他正在把全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的鑰匙交給中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人”。他援引彼得森國際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的亞當(dāng)•波森(Adam Posen)的話指出：“你不能兩手空空地打敗對方，而中國人在拿出一點東西。”

To anyone who cares to notice, this brings home the continued importance of global integration but also who, in particular, leads the integration effort. The “something” that China offers is much less ambitious than the TPP — in particular, it will not include that deal’s seminal provisions on labour and environmental standards. Moreover, trade integration led by Beijing instead of the US will mean trade integration on terms more suitable to China. That must surely be inferior — for the US and its allies — to the US-led terms and standards for Asia-Pacific economic integration to which China would eventually have to adapt, which was the big strategic prize of the TPP.

對于所有對此留心的人來說，這不僅清楚說明了全球一體化的持續(xù)重要性，還特別說明了誰在領(lǐng)導(dǎo)一體化努力。中國拿出的“那點東西”遠(yuǎn)沒有TPP那么有野心——特別是它不會包括TPP在勞動力和環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)方面具有重大影響的條款。此外，由中國代替美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的貿(mào)易一體化將意味著，這種貿(mào)易一體化的條款將更適合中國。對于美國及其盟友來說，這必然不如由美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的條款和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(中國原本最終不得不適應(yīng)這些條款和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這本是TPP的一項重大戰(zhàn)略獎品)。

That makes Pacific trade one aspect of the bigger picture of America’s interest in the rules-based global order that it has built and maintained since the second world war — which has served it and its allies better than the alternatives of international anarchy or an order designed by its big power rivals. “America first”, in global politics, could quickly reveal itself as “America last”. And, as Leonard Cohen, the late poet of an imperfect world, said in an interview a few years ago: you will not like what comes after America.

這使得太平洋貿(mào)易成了美國在基于規(guī)則的全球秩序中的整體利益的一個方面(這個全球秩序由美國自二戰(zhàn)后逐漸建立并維持，相比國際無政府狀態(tài)或由美國的強(qiáng)大對手設(shè)計的秩序等其他選擇而言，該秩序更有利于美國及其盟友)。在全球政治中，“美國領(lǐng)頭”可能會很快變成“美國最后”。同時，正如抒寫不完美世界的已故詩人萊昂納德•科恩(Leonard Cohen)在多年前接受采訪時說的：你不會喜歡失去美國后的樣子。

America’s choice is ultimately the most consequential. But the more immediate battles between openness and withdrawal from the global economy are taking place in Europe. Partly, of course, in the process of Brexit, where the fight is on over how much to raise trade barriers between the UK and its biggest trading partner. But also because the EU itself is actually contributing to the cause of trade openness through two substantial deals.

最終而言美國的選擇是影響最重大的。但開放與從全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中退出之間更直接的斗爭正在歐洲上演。當(dāng)然，斗爭部分是因為英國退歐進(jìn)程，斗爭的焦點是，在英國與其最大的貿(mào)易伙伴之間應(yīng)該豎起多高的貿(mào)易壁壘。但斗爭也是因為歐盟本身通過兩個重要協(xié)議推動貿(mào)易開放。

One is Ceta, the fraught EU-Canada trade and investment agreement that is finally passed, at least conditionally, after a Walloon hold-up. That was widely seen as an embarrassment for Europe. But we should be clear about what the final result involved: that a big trade liberalisation package was exposed to real and messy democratic scrutiny — and that it survived the exposure. In these times, where democracy is seen as antagonistic to economic openness, that is something to celebrate.

一個是命運多舛的《綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易協(xié)定》(CETA)。該協(xié)定是歐盟與加拿大之間的貿(mào)易和投資協(xié)定，曾因比利時瓦隆地方議會的反對而擱淺，最終得以通過(至少是有條件通過)。瓦隆插曲被廣泛視為歐洲的尷尬。但是我們應(yīng)該明白最終結(jié)果的含義：一項重大貿(mào)易自由化方案受到真正而且復(fù)雜的民主審視，并且經(jīng)受住了這種審視。在當(dāng)前這個民主被視為與經(jīng)濟(jì)開放對立的時代，這一點值得慶賀。

The other, much less talked about, effort is the EU-Japan free-trade deal. Mysteriously absent from the headlines, negotiations have been taking place for three and a half years and are nearing completion. Some think that, in pure economic terms, the prospective gains are bigger than could be had from TTIP. The two sides have still to agree on phasing out protection of Europe’s car market against lower barriers in food and agriculture in Japan.

另一項很少被談及的努力是歐盟與日本之間的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定。有關(guān)該協(xié)定的談判已經(jīng)進(jìn)行了三年半，目前已接近尾聲，但卻令人費解地從未登上過頭條。一些人認(rèn)為，單純以經(jīng)濟(jì)條件來看，該協(xié)定的未來好處超過TTIP。雙方仍然需要就逐步解除歐洲汽車市場保護(hù)以及削減日本食品與農(nóng)業(yè)方面的壁壘達(dá)成一致。

Brexit focused minds; Trump’s victory must have focused them further. It is in Japan’s and the EU’s narrow self-interest to conclude the deal. But it is also in the broader defence of their values, and the liberal global order, that they do so with confidence and without further delay.

英國退歐引起人們高度關(guān)注;特朗普獲勝更是如此。達(dá)成該協(xié)議符合日本和歐盟的自身利益。但他們滿懷信心、不再遲疑地敲定該協(xié)議，也是對其價值觀以及全球自由秩序的維護(hù)。